Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model - II: forecast error statistics

A 24-member ensemble of 1-h high-resolution forecasts over the Southern United Kingdom is used to study short-range forecast error statistics. The initial conditions are found from perturbations from an ensemble transform Kalman filter. Forecasts from this system are assumed to lie within the bounds of forecast error of an operational forecast system. Although noisy, this system is capable of producing physically reasonable statistics which are analysed and compared to statistics implied from a variational assimilation system. The variances for temperature errors for instance show structures that reflect convective activity. Some variables, notably potential temperature and specific humidity perturbations, have autocorrelation functions that deviate from 3-D isotropy at the convective-scale (horizontal scales less than 10 km). Other variables, notably the velocity potential for horizontal divergence perturbations, maintain 3-D isotropy at all scales. Geostrophic and hydrostatic balances are studied by examining correlations between terms in the divergence and vertical momentum equations respectively. Both balances are found to decay as the horizontal scale decreases. It is estimated that geostrophic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 75 km, and hydrostatic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 35 km, although more work is required to validate these findings. The implications of these results for high-resolution data assimilation are discussed

Minimal clinical datasets for spine-related musculoskeletal disorders in primary and outpatient care settings: a scoping review

OBJECTIVES Effective measurement and monitoring of health status in patients with spine-related musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders are essential for providing appropriate care and improving outcomes. Minimal clinical datasets are standardized sets of key data elements and patient-centered outcomes that can be measured and recorded during routine clinical care. Our scoping review aimed to identify and map current evidence on minimal clinical datasets for measuring and monitoring health status in patients with spine-related MSK disorders in primary and outpatient healthcare settings. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING We followed the JBI (formerly Joanna Briggs Institute) methodology for scoping reviews. MEDLINE, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Index to Chiropractic Literature, MANTIS, ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Global, and medRxiv preprint repository were searched from database inception to August 1, 2021. Two reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts, full-text articles, and charted the evidence. Findings were synthesized and summarized descriptively. RESULTS After screening 5,583 citations and 301 full-text articles, 104 studies about 32 individual minimal clinical datasets were included. Most minimal clinical datasets were developed for patient populations with spine-involving inflammatory arthritis, nonspecific or degenerative spinal pain, and MSK disorders in general. The minimal clinical datasets varied substantially in terms of the author-reported time-to-complete (1-48 minutes) and the number of items (5-100 items). Fifty percent of the datasets involved healthcare professionals in their development process, and only 28% involved patients. Health domain items were most frequently linked to the components of activities and participation (43.9%) and body functions (28.6%), according to the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health. There is no standardized definition of minimal clinical datasets to measure and monitor health status of patients with spine-related MSK disorders in routine clinical practice. Common core elements identified were practicality, feasibility in a busy routine practice, time efficiency, and the capability to be used across different healthcare settings. CONCLUSION Due to the absence of a standard definition for minimal clinical datasets for patients with spine-related MSK disorders, there is a lack of consistency in the selection of key data elements and patient-centered outcomes that should be included. More research on the implementation and feasibility of minimal clinical datasets in routine care settings is warranted and needed. It is essential to involve all relevant partners in the development process of minimal clinical datasets to ensure successful implementation and adoption in routine primary care

Two-Stage, 90-GHz, Low-Noise Amplifier

A device has been developed for coherent detection of the polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). A two-stage amplifier has been designed that covers 75-110 GHz. The device uses the emerging 35-nm InP HEMT technology recently developed at Northrop Grumman Corporation primarily for use at higher frequencies. The amplifier has more than 18 dB gain and less than 35 K noise figure across the band. These devices have noise less than 30 K at 100 GHz. The development started with design activities at JPL, as well as characterization of multichip modules using existing InP. Following processing, a test campaign was carried out using single-chip modules at 100 GHz. Successful development of the chips will lead to development of multichip modules, with simultaneous Q and U Stokes parameter detection. This MMIC (monolithic microwave integrated circuit) amplifier takes advantage of performance improvements intended for higher frequencies, but in this innovation are applied at 90 GHz. The large amount of available gain ultimately leads to lower possible noise performance at 90 GHz

Development of a 150-GHz MMIC Module Prototype for Large-Scale CMB Radiation

HEMT-based receiver arrays with excellent noise and scalability are already starting to be manufactured at 100 GHz, but the advances in technology should make it possible to develop receiver modules with even greater operation frequency up to 200 GHz. A prototype heterodyne amplifier module has been developed for operation from 140 to 170 GHz using monolithic millimeter-wave integrated circuit (MMIC) low-noise InP high electron mobility transistor (HEMT) amplifiers. The compact, scalable module is centered on the 150-GHz atmospheric window using components known to operate well at these frequencies. Arrays equipped with hundreds of these modules can be optimized for many different astrophysical measurement techniques, including spectroscopy and interferometry. This module is a heterodyne receiver module that is extremely compact, and makes use of 35-nm InP HEMT technology, and which has been shown to have excellent noise temperatures when cooled cryogenically to 30 K. This reduction in system noise over prior art has been demonstrated in commercial mixers (uncooled) at frequencies of 160-180 GHz. The module is expected to achieve a system noise temperature of 60 K when cooled. An MMIC amplifier module has been designed to demonstrate the feasibility of expanding heterodyne amplifier technology to the 140 to 170-GHz frequency range for astronomical observations. The miniaturization of many standard components and the refinement of RF interconnect technology have cleared the way to mass-production of heterodyne amplifier receivers, making it a feasible technology for many large-population arrays. This work furthers the recent research efforts in compact coherent receiver modules, including the development of the Q/U Imaging ExperimenT (QUIET) modules centered at 40 and 90 GHz, and the production of heterodyne module prototypes at 90 GHz

Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model—I: description of the system and the impact of radar-derived surface precipitation rates

A key strategy to improve the skill of quantitative predictions of precipitation, as well as hazardous weather such as severe thunderstorms and flash floods is to exploit the use of observations of convective activity (e.g. from radar). In this paper, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) aimed at addressing the problems of forecasting localized weather events with relatively short predictability time scale and based on a 1.5 km grid-length version of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Particular attention is given to the impact of using predicted observations of radar-derived precipitation intensity in the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) used within the EPS. Our initial results based on the use of a 24-member ensemble of forecasts for two summer case studies show that the convective-scale EPS produces fairly reliable forecasts of temperature, horizontal winds and relative humidity at 1 h lead time, as evident from the inspection of rank histograms. On the other hand, the rank histograms seem also to show that the EPS generates too much spread for forecasts of (i) surface pressure and (ii) surface precipitation intensity. These may indicate that for (i) the value of surface pressure observation error standard deviation used to generate surface pressure rank histograms is too large and for (ii) may be the result of non-Gaussian precipitation observation errors. However, further investigations are needed to better understand these findings. Finally, the inclusion of predicted observations of precipitation from radar in the 24-member EPS considered in this paper does not seem to improve the 1-h lead time forecast skill

Cryogenic MMIC Low Noise Amplifiers for W-Band and Beyond

We discuss results of low noise amplifier Monolithic Millimeter-wave Integrated Circuits (MMICs), which were designed for specific frequencies in the range of 70-200 GHz. We report on room temperature and cryogenic noise performance for a variety of circuits. The designs utilize Northrop Grumman Corporation’s (NGC) 35 nm gate length InP HEMT technology. Some of the lowest reported noise figures to date have been observed with this process at cryogenic temperatures

On-Wafer S-Parameter Measurements in the 325-508-GHz Band

New circuits have been designed and fabricated with operating frequencies over 325 GHz. In order to measure S-parameters of these circuits, an extensive process of wafer dicing and packaging, and waveguide transition design, fabrication, and packaging would be required. This is a costly and time-consuming process before the circuit can be tested in waveguide. The new probes and calibration procedures will simplify the testing process. New on-wafer probes, and a procedure for their calibration, have been developed that allow fast and inexpensive S-parameter characterization of circuits in the 325 -508 -GHz frequency band. The on-wafer probes transition from rectangular waveguide to coplanar waveguide probe tips with 40- m nominal signal-to-ground pin pitch so as to allow for probing circuits on a wafer. The probes with bias tees have been optimized for minimal insertion loss and maximum return loss when placed on 50-ohm structures to allow for calibration. The calibration process has been developed using the Thru-Reflect-Line Agilent algorithm with JPL determined calibration structures and calibration coefficients for the algorithm. This new test capability is presently unique to JPL. With it, researchers will be able to better develop circuits such as low-noise amplifiers, power amplifiers, multipliers, and mixers for heterodyne receivers in the 325-508-GHz frequency band for remote sensing/spectroscopy

Cryogenic 160-GHz MMIC Heterodyne Receiver Module

A cryogenic 160-GHz MMIC heterodyne receiver module has demonstrated a system noise temperature of 100 K or less at 166 GHz. This module builds upon work previously described in Development of a 150-GHz MMIC Module Prototype for Large-Scale CMB Radiation (NPO-47664), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 35, No. 8 (August 2011), p. 27. In the original module, the local oscillator signal was saturating the MMIC low-noise amplifiers (LNAs) with power. In order to suppress the local oscillator signal from reaching the MMIC LNAs, the W-band (75 110 GHz) signal had to be filtered out before reaching 140 170 GHz. A bandpass filter was developed to cover 120 170 GHz, using microstrip parallel-coupled lines to achieve the desired filter bandwidth, and ensure that the unwanted W-band local oscillator signal would be sufficiently suppressed. With the new bandpass filter, the entire receiver can work over the 140 180-GHz band, with a minimum system noise temperature of 460 K at 166 GHz. The module was tested cryogenically at 20 K ambient temperature, and it was found that the receiver had a noise temperature of 100 K over an 8-GHz bandwidth. The receiver module now includes a microstrip bandpass filter, which was designed to have a 3-dB bandwidth of approximately 120-170 GHz. The filter was fabricated on a 3-mil-thick alumina substrate. The filter design was based on a W-band filter design made at JPL and used in the QUIET (Q/U Imaging ExperimenT) radiometer modules. The W-band filter was scaled for a new center frequency of 150 GHz, and the microstrip segments were changed accordingly. Also, to decrease the bandwidth of the resulting scaled design, the center gaps between the microstrip lines were increased (by four micrometers in length) compared to the gaps near the edges. The use of the 150-GHz bandpass filter has enabled the receiver module to function well at room temperature. The system noise temperature was measured to be less than 600 K (at room temperature) from 154 to 168 GHz. Additionally, the use of a W-band isolator between the receiver module and the local oscillator source also improved the noise temperature substantially. This may be because the mixer was presented with a better impedance match with the use of the isolator. Cryogenic testing indicates a system noise temperature of 100 K or less at 166 GHz. Prior tests of the MMIC amplifiers alone have resulted in a system noise temperature of 65.70 K in the same frequency range (.160 GHz) when cooled to an ambient temperature of 20 K. While other detector systems may be slightly more sensitive (such as SIS mixers), they require more cooling (to 4 K ambient) and are not as easily scalable to build a large array, due to the need for large magnets and other equipment. When cooled to 20 K, this receiver module achieves approximately 100 K system noise temperature, which is slightly higher than single-amplifier module results obtained at JPL (65.70 K when an amplifier is corrected for back-end noise contributions). If this performance can be realized in practice, and a scalable array can be produced, the impact on cosmic microwave background experiments, astronomical and Earth spectroscopy, interferometry, and radio astronomy in general will be dramatic

Compact, Miniature MMIC Receiver Modules for an MMIC Array Spectrograph

A single-pixel prototype of a W-band detector module with a digital back-end was developed to serve as a building block for large focal-plane arrays of monolithic millimeter-wave integrated circuit (MMIC) detectors. The module uses low-noise amplifiers, diode-based mixers, and a WR10 waveguide input with a coaxial local oscillator. State-of-the-art InP HEMT (high electron mobility transistor) MMIC amplifiers at the front end provide approximately 40 dB of gain. The measured noise temperature of the module, at an ambient temperature of 300 K, was found to be as low as 450 K at 95 GHz. The modules will be used to develop multiple instruments for astrophysics radio telescopes, both on the ground and in space. The prototype is being used by Stanford University to characterize noise performance at cryogenic temperatures. The goal is to achieve a 30-50 K noise temperature around 90 GHz when cooled to a 20 K ambient temperature. Further developments include characterization of the IF in-phase (I) and quadrature (Q) signals as a function of frequency to check amplitude and phase; replacing the InP low-noise amplifiers with state-of-the-art 35-nm-gate-length NGC low-noise amplifiers; interfacing the front-end module with a digital back-end spectrometer; and developing a scheme for local oscillator and IF distribution in a future array. While this MMIC is being developed for use in radio astronomy, it has the potential for use in other industries. Applications include automotive radar (both transmitters and receivers), communication links, radar systems for collision avoidance, production monitors, ground-penetrating sensors, and wireless personal networks