Carrington-class Events as a Great Filter for Electronic Civilizations in the Drake Equation

The Drake equation is a calculation providing an upper bound on the likely number of intelligent species in our galaxy. In order to reconcile a potentially high occurrence of intelligent extraterrestrial species with the current non-observation of them, we frequently resort to some Great Filter which represents some inevitable, cataclysmic fate (such as nuclear war, pandemic, or asteroid impact) that tends to await enough worlds to negate the expectation that the galaxy ought to be teeming with intelligent life. This paper is intended to examine one potential Great Filter for electronic-based civilizations, the impact of a Carrington-class coronal mass ejection (CME) from the Sun. Carrington-class CMEs are classified as once in a century events caused by our Sun; this appears to place a time limit, following the development of a civilization dependent on electronic devices, either for hardening electronics against the geomagnetically induced currents that result from CMEs or for beginning interplanetary colonization

Collisional Broadening and Shift of D1 and D2 Spectral Lines in Atomic Alkali Vapor - Noble Gas Systems

The Baranger model is used to compute collisional broadening and shift of the D1 and D2 spectral lines of M + Ng, where M = K, Rb, Cs and Ng = He, Ne, Ar, using scattering phase shift differences which are calculated from scattering matrix elements. Scattering matrix elements are calculated using the Channel Packet Method where the collisions are treated non-adiabatically and include spin-orbit and Coriolis couplings. Non-adiabatic wavepacket dynamics are determined using the split-operator method together with a unitary transformation between adiabatic and diabatic representations. Scattering phase shift differences are thermally weighted and integrated over energies ranging from E = 0 Hartree up to E = 0.0075 Hartree and averaged over values of total angular momentum that range from J = 0.5 up to J = 400.5. Phase shifts are extrapolated linearly to provide an approximate extension of the energy regime up to E = 0.012 Hartree. Broadening and shift coefficients are obtained for temperatures ranging from T = 100 K up to T = 800 K and compared with experiment. Predictions from this research find application in laser physics and specifically with improvement of total power output of Optically Pumped Alkali Laser systems

A Fully Quantum Calculation of Broadening and Shifting Coefficients of the D\u3csub\u3e1\u3c/sub\u3e and D\u3csub\u3e2\u3c/sub\u3e spectral lines of alkali-metal atoms colliding with noble-gas atoms

We use the Baranger model to compute collisional broadening and shift rates for the D1 and D2 spectral lines of M + Ng, where M = K, Rb, Cs and Ng = He, Ne, Ar. Scattering matrix elements are calculated using the channel packet method, and non-adiabatic wavepacket dynamics are determined using the split-operator method together with a unitary transformation between adiabatic and diabatic representations. Scattering phase shift differences are weighted thermally and are integrated over temperatures ranging from 100 K to 800 K. We find that predicted broadening rates compare well with experiment, but shift rates are predicted poorly by this model because they are extremely sensitive to the near-asymptotic behavior of the potential energy surfaces. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd

Quantifying the Reproducibility of Cell-Perturbation Experiments

Experiments adhering to the same protocol can nonetheless lead to different conclusions, for instance, due to batch effects or lab effects. A statistical test applied to measurements from one experiment may yield a vanishingly small $p$-value, yet applying the same test to measurements from a replicate experiment may yield a large $p$-value. Recent work has highlighted this lack of reproducibility in cell-perturbation experiments. We introduce the Reproducible Sign Rate (RSR), a new reproducibility metric for settings in which each hypothesis test has two alternatives (e.g., upregulation and downregulation of gene expression). The RSR identifies the proportion of discoveries that are expected to reproduce in a future replicate. We provide conditions under which the RSR can be estimated accurately -- even when as few as two experimental replicates are available. We also provide conditions under which high RSR implies a low Type S error rate. We demonstrate the uses of RSR with experiments based on several high-throughput technologies, including L1000, Sci-Plex, and CRISPR.Comment: Submitted to AoA

Detection of Reconnection Signatures in Solar Flares

Solar flare forecasting is limited by the current understanding of mechanisms that govern magnetic reconnection, the main physical phenomenon associated with these events. As a result, forecasting relies mainly on climatological correlations to historical events rather than the underlying physics principles. Solar physics models place the neutral point of the reconnection event in the solar corona. Correspondingly, studies of photospheric magnetic fields indicate changes during solar flares—particularly in relation to the field helicity—on the solar surface as a result of the associated magnetic reconnection. This study utilizes data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) and SpaceWeather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARPs) to analyze full vector-field component data of the photospheric magnetic field during solar flares within a large HMI dataset (May 2010 through September 2019). This analysis is then used to identify and compare trends in the different categories of flare strengths and determine indications of the physical phenomena taking place

Variations of Heavy Ion Abundances Relative to Proton Abundances in Large Solar Energetic (E \u3e 10 MeV) Particle Events

The elemental composition of heavy ions (with atomic number Z \u3e 2) (hi-Z) in large gradual E \u3e 10 MeV nuc-1 SEP events has been extensively studied in the 2-15 MeV nuc-1 range to determine the acceleration processes and transport properties of SEPs. These studies invariably are based on abundances relative to those of a single element such as C or O and often neglect H and He, the elements of primary interest for space weather. The total radiation of an SEP event is determined not only by the H and He properties but also by those of hi-Z ions whose abundances and variations relative to H from one event to another are unknown. We report a study to determine those variations in a group of 15 large SEP events over the period 2000 to 2015. Five hi-Z ions (He, C, O, Mg, & Fe) were selected to determine variations of their fluences relative to those of H in the 13.5-50.7 MeV nuc-1 energy range for each SEP event. Our average hi-Z abundance ratios slightly exceed those reported by [1] at lower energies, with the Fe event abundances showing the largest standard deviation of an order of magnitude. The event abundances were weakly correlated with H fluences and strongly correlated with speeds Vcme of associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These correlations may be evidence of streaming limits in the shock regions of H in the largest events

Evolution of Coronal Magnetic Field Parameters during X5.4 Solar Flare

The coronal magnetic field over NOAA Active Region 11,429 during a X5.4 solar flare on 7 March 2012 is modeled using optimization based Non-Linear Force-Free Field extrapolation. Specifically, 3D magnetic fields were modeled for 11 timesteps using the 12-min cadence Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager photospheric vector magnetic field data, spanning a time period of 1 hour before through 1 hour after the start of the flare. Using the modeled coronal magnetic field data, seven different magnetic field parameters were calculated for 3 separate regions: areas with surface |Bz|≥ 300 G, areas of flare brightening seen in SDO Atmospheric Imaging Assembly imagery, and areas with surface |B| ≥ 1000 G and high twist. Time series of the magnetic field parameters were analyzed to investigate the evolution of the coronal field during the solar flare event and discern pre-eruptive signatures. The data shows that areas with |B| ≥ 1000 G and |Tw|≥ 1.5 align well with areas of initial flare brightening during the pre-flare phase and at the beginning of the eruptive phase of the flare, suggesting that measurements of the photospheric magnetic field strength and twist can be used to predict the flare location within an active region if triggered. Additionally, the evolution of seven investigated magnetic field parameters indicated a destabilizing magnetic field structure that could likely erupt

Classification of Attributes and Behavior in Risk Management Using Bayesian Networks

This paper discusses issues in security

Summer 1971

Mercury - Is The Amount in Seafood Poisonous? by C.J. Gilgut (3) Comparison of Several Fertilizer Salts and Their Effect on Penn Cross Creeping Bentgrass Top Growth by Joseph Troll (5) Turf Bulletin\u27s Photo Quiz by Frederick G. Cheney (7) A Review of the Trace ELements by Mark Loper (8) Now is the Time to Cut Costs by Holman M. Griffin (12) For the Homeowner -- Thatch and its Control by Joseph Troll (14) Lawns Slow Pollution by Robert W. Schery (15) Decimate the Decibels (16) Benomyl for the Control of Fusarium Blight of \u27Merion\u27 Kentucky Bluegrass by J.M. Vargas, Jr. and Charles W. Laughlin (17) New Blueprint Emerges for Air Pollution Controls (19) Preparing Turf Area Seedbeds by Thomas G. Pardy (22) An Ecologist Talks about Pollution by Donald A. Spencer (23) Editorial--Looking Back at the Mass. Turf Conference by Frederick G. Cheney (Outside back cover