Optimization of resource storage location for managing flood emergencies.

Strategic infrastructure plays a key role in the functioning of urban areas, especially when dealing with emergency response to natural disasters. Urban areas and their infrastructure are threatened by natural hazards, which is likely to be exacerbated by climate change and intense urbanization in the near future. The UK National Flood Resilience Review (2016) committed £2.3 billion to be invested to reduce flood risk, of which £12.5 million specifically for temporary defenses. At present, the state of the art does not provide a proven efficient methodology specifically designed to optimally invest these resources; in light of this, a consolidated urban planning spatial optimization methodology is originally used for allocating resource storing space and ultimately optimize flood emergency management. This study developed and applied a RAOGA (Resource Allocation Optimization Genetic Algorithm) to balance the particular trade-off between simultaneous minimization of response time and costs. The presented optimization framework balances several competing tensions that include: (1) the identification of, and the cost of using, possible sites (warehouses) to store flood temporary defenses; (2) the identification of strategic infrastructure location; (3) transport optimization for moving emergency response resources into place. The methodology is applied to a regional case study (Yorkshire, UK) as proof of concept. Such a framework has the potential to lead a new generation of mathematically-based emergency response planning, targeted to policy makers dealing with urban planning and emergency management

Mathematical modeling and parameter estimation of levodopa motor response in patients with Parkinson disease

Parkinson disease (PD) is characterized by a clear beneficial motor response to levodopa (LD) treatment. However, with disease progression and longer LD exposure, drug-related motor fluctuations usually occur. Recognition of the individual relationship between LD concentration and its effect may be difficult, due to the complexity and variability of the mechanisms involved. This work proposes an innovative procedure for the automatic estimation of LD pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics parameters, by a biologically-inspired mathematical model. An original issue, compared with previous similar studies, is that the model comprises not only a compartmental description of LD pharmacokinetics in plasma and its effect on the striatal neurons, but also a neurocomputational model of basal ganglia action selection. Parameter estimation was achieved on 26 patients (13 with stable and 13 with fluctuating LD response) to mimic plasma LD concentration and alternate finger tapping frequency along four hours after LD administration, automatically minimizing a cost function of the difference between simulated and clinical data points. Results show that individual data can be satisfactorily simulated in all patients and that significant differences exist in the estimated parameters between the two groups. Specifically, the drug removal rate from the effect compartment, and the Hill coefficient of the concentration-effect relationship were significantly higher in the fluctuating than in the stable group. The model, with individualized parameters, may be used to reach a deeper comprehension of the PD mechanisms, mimic the effect of medication, and, based on the predicted neural responses, plan the correct management and design innovative therapeutic procedures

Probability amplitude in quantum like games

Examples of games between two partners with mixed strategies, calculated by the use of the probability amplitude are given. The first game is described by the quantum formalism of spin one half system for which two noncommuting observables are measured. The second game corresponds to the spin one case. Quantum logical orthocomplemented nondistributive lattices for these two games are presented. Interference terms for the probability amplitudes are analyzed by using so called contextual approach to probability (in the von Mises frequency approach). We underline that our games are not based on using of some microscopic systems. The whole scenario is macroscopic.Comment: Quantum-like model

The colorectal cancer screening program in the Local Health Unit n. 6 of Livorno: evaluation of the screening activity in the period 2000-2011

Introduction. The colorectal cancer screening program in the Local Health Unit n. 6 of Livorno is running since July 2000 and is meant to residents, aged between 50 and 70, who are invited to perform the test for faecal occult blood every 2 years. The aim of this work is an evaluation of the screening activity in the period 2000-2011. Methods. The evaluation is based on the analysis of the main quality indicators formulated by GISCoR (Italian Group for Colorectal screening). Results. The screening activity extension reached 93% in 2006 and 100% in 2009. The compliance level was maintained above the acceptable GISCoR value (> 45%) with a maximum of 54.9%. Values around 80% were recorded for the compliance to colonosopy. The detection rate (DR) for cancer and advanced adenoma showed, as expected, the highest values in the early years and then move on values consistently lower than the regional average. In 2011, the raw DR for cancer was 0.9 x 1000 and the raw DR for advanced adenoma 5.3 x 1000. The distribution by stage at diagnosis of screen-detected carcinomas shows that 58.1% of these were identified at stage I while the proportion of cases in stage III+ is 19.5%. Conclusions. The overall analysis shows a good performance of the program. The proportion of colonoscopies performed on the total number of positive subjects remains a critical point of the system. The distribution by stage of screen-detected cancers shows an excellent diagnostic anticipation of the screening program

Caracterização socioeconômica das bacias hidrográficas dos Rios Guapi-Macacu e Caceribu.

bitstream/item/107015/1/DOC-149-Socioeconomia-Guapi-Macacu.pd

Quantitative Assessment of Motor Response to a Low Subacute Levodopa Dose in the Differential Diagnosis of Parkinsonisms at Disease Onset: Data from the BoProPark Cohort

Background: Differential diagnosis between Parkinson's disease (PD) and atypical parkinsonisms (APs) may be difficult at disease onset. The response to levodopa (LD) is a key supportive feature but its definition is largely empirical. Studies evaluating this issue by quantitative tests are scanty. Objective: We aimed to assess the utility of a subacute low LD dose kinetic-dynamic test in the differential diagnosis between PD and APs. It was applied at the baseline of a prospective follow-up in patients with parkinsonian signs within three years of disease motor onset ('BoProPark' cohort) and eventually diagnosed as PD or APs according to consensus criteria. Methods: Patients under at least 3-month LD therapy received a first morning fasting dose of LD/benserazide or carbidopa (100/25mg) and underwent simultaneous serial assessments of plasma LD concentration and alternate finger tapping frequency up to 3h. The main outcome was the extent of LD motor response, calculated by the area under the 3h tapping effect-time curve (AUC_ETap). A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to establish the optimal AUC_ETap cut-off to differentiate PD and APs. Results: The first 100 consecutive 'BoProPark' patients were analyzed. Forty-seven patients were classified as possible, 37 as probable PD and 16 as APs. AUC_ETap medians were similar in the PD subgroups but reduced to a third in APs (p<0.001). The optimal AUC_ETap cut-off value was >2186 [(tap/min) x min], with a sensitivity of 92% and a specificity of 75%. Accuracy of the test was 0.85 (95% CI 0.74-0.95), p<0.0001. Conclusion: The estimation of 3h AUC_ETap after a subacute low LD dose proved a reliable, objective tool to assess LD motor response in our cohort of patients. AUC_ETap value rounded to ≥2200 supports PD diagnosis, while lower values may alert to AP diagnoses