Analyzing historical diagnosis code data from NIH N3C and RECOVER Programs using deep learning to determine risk factors for Long Covid

Post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC) or Long COVID is an emerging medical condition that has been observed in several patients with a positive diagnosis for COVID-19. Historical Electronic Health Records (EHR) like diagnosis codes, lab results and clinical notes have been analyzed using deep learning and have been used to predict future clinical events. In this paper, we propose an interpretable deep learning approach to analyze historical diagnosis code data from the National COVID Cohort Collective (N3C) to find the risk factors contributing to developing Long COVID. Using our deep learning approach, we are able to predict if a patient is suffering from Long COVID from a temporally ordered list of diagnosis codes up to 45 days post the first COVID positive test or diagnosis for each patient, with an accuracy of 70.48\%. We are then able to examine the trained model using Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (GradCAM) to give each input diagnoses a score. The highest scored diagnosis were deemed to be the most important for making the correct prediction for a patient. We also propose a way to summarize these top diagnoses for each patient in our cohort and look at their temporal trends to determine which codes contribute towards a positive Long COVID diagnosis

IL-13 is a driver of COVID-19 severity

Immune dysregulation is characteristic of the more severe stages of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Understanding the mechanisms by which the immune system contributes to COVID-19 severity may open new avenues to treatment. Here, we report that elevated IL-13 was associated with the need for mechanical ventilation in 2 independent patient cohorts. In addition, patients who acquired COVID-19 while prescribed Dupilumab, a mAb that blocks IL-13 and IL-4 signaling, had less severe disease. In SARS-CoV-2–infected mice, IL-13 neutralization reduced death and disease severity without affecting viral load, demonstrating an immunopathogenic role for this cytokine. Following anti–IL-13 treatment in infected mice, hyaluronan synthase 1 (Has1) was the most downregulated gene, and accumulation of the hyaluronan (HA) polysaccharide was decreased in the lung. In patients with COVID-19, HA was increased in the lungs and plasma. Blockade of the HA receptor, CD44, reduced mortality in infected mice, supporting the importance of HA as a pathogenic mediator. Finally, HA was directly induced in the lungs of mice by administration of IL-13, indicating a new role for IL-13 in lung disease. Understanding the role of IL-13 and HA has important implications for therapy of COVID-19 and, potentially, other pulmonary diseases. IL-13 levels were elevated in patients with severe COVID-19. In a mouse model of the disease, IL-13 neutralization reduced the disease and decreased lung HA deposition. Administration of IL-13–induced HA in the lung. Blockade of the HA receptor CD44 prevented mortality, highlighting a potentially novel mechanism for IL-13–mediated HA synthesis in pulmonary pathology

Risk factors associated with post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2: an N3C and NIH RECOVER study

Background More than one-third of individuals experience post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC, which includes long-COVID). The objective is to identify risk factors associated with PASC/long-COVID diagnosis. Methods This was a retrospective case–control study including 31 health systems in the United States from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C). 8,325 individuals with PASC (defined by the presence of the International Classification of Diseases, version 10 code U09.9 or a long-COVID clinic visit) matched to 41,625 controls within the same health system and COVID index date within ± 45 days of the corresponding case's earliest COVID index date. Measurements of risk factors included demographics, comorbidities, treatment and acute characteristics related to COVID-19. Multivariable logistic regression, random forest, and XGBoost were used to determine the associations between risk factors and PASC. Results Among 8,325 individuals with PASC, the majority were > 50 years of age (56.6%), female (62.8%), and non-Hispanic White (68.6%). In logistic regression, middle-age categories (40 to 69 years; OR ranging from 2.32 to 2.58), female sex (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.33–1.48), hospitalization associated with COVID-19 (OR 3.8, 95% CI 3.05–4.73), long (8–30 days, OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.31–2.17) or extended hospital stay (30 + days, OR 3.38, 95% CI 2.45–4.67), receipt of mechanical ventilation (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.18–1.74), and several comorbidities including depression (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.40–1.60), chronic lung disease (OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.53–1.74), and obesity (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.16–1.3) were associated with increased likelihood of PASC diagnosis or care at a long-COVID clinic. Characteristics associated with a lower likelihood of PASC diagnosis or care at a long-COVID clinic included younger age (18 to 29 years), male sex, non-Hispanic Black race, and comorbidities such as substance abuse, cardiomyopathy, psychosis, and dementia. More doctors per capita in the county of residence was associated with an increased likelihood of PASC diagnosis or care at a long-COVID clinic. Our findings were consistent in sensitivity analyses using a variety of analytic techniques and approaches to select controls. Conclusions This national study identified important risk factors for PASC diagnosis such as middle age, severe COVID-19 disease, and specific comorbidities. Further clinical and epidemiological research is needed to better understand underlying mechanisms and the potential role of vaccines and therapeutics in altering PASC course. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-023-16916-w

Risk of post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection associated with pre-coronavirus disease obstructive sleep apnea diagnoses: an electronic health record-based analysis from the RECOVER initiative

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) has been associated with more severe acute coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) outcomes. We assessed OSA as a potential risk factor for Post-Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC).We assessed the impact of preexisting OSA on the risk for probable PASC in adults and children using electronic health record data from multiple research networks. Three research networks within the REsearching COVID to Enhance Recovery initiative (PCORnet Adult, PCORnet Pediatric, and the National COVID Cohort Collaborative [N3C]) employed a harmonized analytic approach to examine the risk of probable PASC in COVID-19-positive patients with and without a diagnosis of OSA prior to pandemic onset. Unadjusted odds ratios (ORs) were calculated as well as ORs adjusted for age group, sex, race/ethnicity, hospitalization status, obesity, and preexisting comorbidities.Across networks, the unadjusted OR for probable PASC associated with a preexisting OSA diagnosis in adults and children ranged from 1.41 to 3.93. Adjusted analyses found an attenuated association that remained significant among adults only. Multiple sensitivity analyses with expanded inclusion criteria and covariates yielded results consistent with the primary analysis.Adults with preexisting OSA were found to have significantly elevated odds of probable PASC. This finding was consistent across data sources, approaches for identifying COVID-19-positive patients, and definitions of PASC. Patients with OSA may be at elevated risk for PASC after SARS-CoV-2 infection and should be monitored for post-acute sequelae

The N3C governance ecosystem: A model socio-technical partnership for the future of collaborative analytics at scale

The National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) is a public–private–government partnership established during the Coronavirus pandemic to create a centralized data resource called the “N3C data enclave.” This resource contains individual-level health data from participating healthcare sites nationwide to support rapid collaborative analytics. N3C has enabled analytics within a cloud-based enclave of data from electronic health records from over 17 million people (with and without COVID-19) in the USA. To achieve this goal of a shared data resource, N3C implemented a shared governance strategy involving stakeholders in decision-making. The approach leveraged best practices in data stewardship and team science to rapidly enable COVID-19-related research at scale while respecting the privacy of data subjects and participating institutions. N3C balanced equitable access to data, team-based scientific productivity, and individual professional recognition – a key incentive for academic researchers. This governance approach makes N3C research sustainable and effective beyond the initial days of the pandemic. N3C demonstrated that shared governance can overcome traditional barriers to data sharing without compromising data security and trust. The governance innovations described herein are a helpful framework for other privacy-preserving data infrastructure programs and provide a working model for effective team science beyond COVID-19

Predictive models of long COVIDResearch in context

Summary: Background: The cause and symptoms of long COVID are poorly understood. It is challenging to predict whether a given COVID-19 patient will develop long COVID in the future. Methods: We used electronic health record (EHR) data from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative to predict the incidence of long COVID. We trained two machine learning (ML) models — logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF). Features used to train predictors included symptoms and drugs ordered during acute infection, measures of COVID-19 treatment, pre-COVID comorbidities, and demographic information. We assigned the ‘long COVID’ label to patients diagnosed with the U09.9 ICD10-CM code. The cohorts included patients with (a) EHRs reported from data partners using U09.9 ICD10-CM code and (b) at least one EHR in each feature category. We analysed three cohorts: all patients (n = 2,190,579; diagnosed with long COVID = 17,036), inpatients (149,319; 3,295), and outpatients (2,041,260; 13,741). Findings: LR and RF models yielded median AUROC of 0.76 and 0.75, respectively. Ablation study revealed that drugs had the highest influence on the prediction task. The SHAP method identified age, gender, cough, fatigue, albuterol, obesity, diabetes, and chronic lung disease as explanatory features. Models trained on data from one N3C partner and tested on data from the other partners had average AUROC of 0.75. Interpretation: ML-based classification using EHR information from the acute infection period is effective in predicting long COVID. SHAP methods identified important features for prediction. Cross-site analysis demonstrated the generalizability of the proposed methodology. Funding: NCATS U24 TR002306, NCATS UL1 TR003015, Axle Informatics Subcontract: NCATS-P00438-B, NIH/NIDDK/OD, PSR2015-1720GVALE_01, G43C22001320007, and Director, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences of the U.S. Department of Energy Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231

Marked difference in liver fat measured by histology vs. magnetic resonance-proton density fat fraction: A meta-analysis

Background & Aims: Pathologists quantify liver steatosis as the fraction of lipid droplet-containing hepatocytes out of all hepatocytes, whereas the magnetic resonance-determined proton density fat fraction (PDFF) reflects the tissue triacylglycerol concentration. We investigated the linearity, agreement, and correspondence thresholds between histological steatosis and PDFF across the full clinical spectrum of liver fat content associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Methods: Using individual patient-level measurements, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies comparing histological steatosis with PDFF determined by magnetic resonance spectroscopy or imaging in adults with suspected non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Linearity was assessed by meta-analysis of correlation coefficients and by linear mixed modelling of pooled data, agreement by Bland–Altman analysis, and thresholds by receiver operating characteristic analysis. To explain observed differences between the methods, we used RNA-seq to determine the fraction of hepatocytes in human liver biopsies. Results: Eligible studies numbered 9 (N = 597). The relationship between PDFF and histology was predominantly linear (r = 0.85 [95% CI, 0.80–0.89]), and their values approximately coincided at 5% steatosis. Above 5% and towards higher levels of steatosis, absolute values of the methods diverged markedly, with histology exceeding PDFF by up to 3.4-fold. On average, 100% histological steatosis corresponded to a PDFF of 33.0% (29.5–36.7%). Targeting at a specificity of 90%, optimal PDFF thresholds to predict histological steatosis grades were ≥5.75% for ≥S1, ≥15.50% for ≥S2, and ≥21.35% for S3. Hepatocytes comprised 58 ± 5% of liver cells, which may partly explain the lower values of PDFF vs. histology. Conclusions: Histological steatosis and PDFF have non-perfect linearity and fundamentally different scales of measurement. Liver fat values obtained using these methods may be rendered comparable by conversion equations or threshold values. Impact and implications: Magnetic resonance-proton density fat fraction (PDFF) is increasingly being used to measure liver fat in place of the invasive liver biopsy. Understanding the relationship between PDFF and histological steatosis fraction is important for preventing misjudgement of clinical status or treatment effects in patient care. Our analysis revealed that histological steatosis fraction is often significantly higher than PDFF, and their association varies across the spectrum of fatty liver severity. These findings are particularly important for physicians and clinical researchers, who may use these data to interpret PDFF measurements in the context of histologically evaluated liver fat content

Marked difference in liver fat measured by histology vs. magnetic resonance-proton density fat fraction: A meta-analysis

Background & aimsPathologists quantify liver steatosis as the fraction of lipid droplet-containing hepatocytes out of all hepatocytes, whereas the magnetic resonance-determined proton density fat fraction (PDFF) reflects the tissue triacylglycerol concentration. We investigated the linearity, agreement, and correspondence thresholds between histological steatosis and PDFF across the full clinical spectrum of liver fat content associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.MethodsUsing individual patient-level measurements, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies comparing histological steatosis with PDFF determined by magnetic resonance spectroscopy or imaging in adults with suspected non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Linearity was assessed by meta-analysis of correlation coefficients and by linear mixed modelling of pooled data, agreement by Bland-Altman analysis, and thresholds by receiver operating characteristic analysis. To explain observed differences between the methods, we used RNA-seq to determine the fraction of hepatocytes in human liver biopsies.ResultsEligible studies numbered 9 (N = 597). The relationship between PDFF and histology was predominantly linear (r = 0.85 [95% CI, 0.80-0.89]), and their values approximately coincided at 5% steatosis. Above 5% and towards higher levels of steatosis, absolute values of the methods diverged markedly, with histology exceeding PDFF by up to 3.4-fold. On average, 100% histological steatosis corresponded to a PDFF of 33.0% (29.5-36.7%). Targeting at a specificity of 90%, optimal PDFF thresholds to predict histological steatosis grades were ≥5.75% for ≥S1, ≥15.50% for ≥S2, and ≥21.35% for S3. Hepatocytes comprised 58 ± 5% of liver cells, which may partly explain the lower values of PDFF vs. histology.ConclusionsHistological steatosis and PDFF have non-perfect linearity and fundamentally different scales of measurement. Liver fat values obtained using these methods may be rendered comparable by conversion equations or threshold values.Impact and implicationsMagnetic resonance-proton density fat fraction (PDFF) is increasingly being used to measure liver fat in place of the invasive liver biopsy. Understanding the relationship between PDFF and histological steatosis fraction is important for preventing misjudgement of clinical status or treatment effects in patient care. Our analysis revealed that histological steatosis fraction is often significantly higher than PDFF, and their association varies across the spectrum of fatty liver severity. These findings are particularly important for physicians and clinical researchers, who may use these data to interpret PDFF measurements in the context of histologically evaluated liver fat content

Synergies between centralized and federated approaches to data quality: a report from the national COVID cohort collaborative

Objective In response to COVID-19, the informatics community united to aggregate as much clinical data as possible to characterize this new disease and reduce its impact through collaborative analytics. The National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) is now the largest publicly available HIPAA limited dataset in US history with over 6.4 million patients and is a testament to a partnership of over 100 organizations. Materials and Methods We developed a pipeline for ingesting, harmonizing, and centralizing data from 56 contributing data partners using 4 federated Common Data Models. N3C data quality (DQ) review involves both automated and manual procedures. In the process, several DQ heuristics were discovered in our centralized context, both within the pipeline and during downstream project-based analysis. Feedback to the sites led to many local and centralized DQ improvements. Results Beyond well-recognized DQ findings, we discovered 15 heuristics relating to source Common Data Model conformance, demographics, COVID tests, conditions, encounters, measurements, observations, coding completeness, and fitness for use. Of 56 sites, 37 sites (66%) demonstrated issues through these heuristics. These 37 sites demonstrated improvement after receiving feedback. Discussion We encountered site-to-site differences in DQ which would have been challenging to discover using federated checks alone. We have demonstrated that centralized DQ benchmarking reveals unique opportunities for DQ improvement that will support improved research analytics locally and in aggregate. Conclusion By combining rapid, continual assessment of DQ with a large volume of multisite data, it is possible to support more nuanced scientific questions with the scale and rigor that they require