Leading indicators of currency crises

The authors examine the empirical evidence on currency crises and propose a specific early-warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. An indicator exceeding a certain threshold value should be interpreted as a warning"signal"that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The threshold values are calculated to strike a balance between the risk of having many false signals and the risk of missing many crises. Within this approach, the variables with the best track record include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices. The evidence does not support some of the other indicators that were considered, including imports, bank deposits,the difference between foreign and domestic real deposit interest rates, and the ratio of lending to deposit interest rates.Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Economic Theory&Research,Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Environmental Economics&Policies,Labor Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Macroeconomic Management,Economic Stabilization,Environmental Economics&Policies,Financial Economics

Chemical modification of 5-hydroxytryptophan photoinduced by endogenous sensitizers present in skin

[EN] Damage caused to biological targets through sunlight photosensitized reaction is of paramount importance due to their potential effects on human health. In these processes, a chemical alteration of a biomolecule may occur as a result of the initial radiation absorption by another chemical species called photosensitizer. In this respect, pterins are endogenous photosensitizers able of inducing chemical modifications in DNA, proteins and lipids. These molecules are present in many living organisms and play different biological functions. In humans, aromatic pterins (Pt) accumulate in the depigmentation patches on the skin of patients suffering vitiligo. Interestingly, 5-hydroxytryptophan (5-OH-Trp), a common oxidation product of tryptophan acting as a potential endogenous antioxidant, is also present in the skin under oxidative stress conditions, such as those produced by vitiligo. However, the photochemical interaction between Pt and 5-OH-Trp has not been considered yet. With this background, the goal of the present work is to deepen the knowledge of the capability of Pt to photoinduce damage to 5-OH-Trp. By combining different analytical and spectroscopic techniques, we establish that 5-OH-Trp is damaged by Pt through a photosensitized type I process initiated by an electron transfer from the 5-OH-Trp to the Pt triplet excited state that yield the corresponding radical ions. In air-equilibrated aqueous solution four products were identified, two of which correspond to 5-OH-Trp dimers, while the others are a 5-OH-Trp trimer and a dione, in which the 5-OH-Trp has incorporated an oxygen atom. No consumption of Pt was observed in the presence of O2. However, in the absence of O2, further free-radical reactions lead to the reduction of the photosensitizer, and dimers and trimer were the only 5-OH-Trp-derived products detected. The biomedical implications of the generation of this kind of products, in proteins, are discussed.The present work was partially supported by Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas (CONICET-Grant P-UE 2017 22920170100100CO) , Agencia de Promocion Cientifica y Tecnologica (ANPCyT-Grant PICT 2017-0925, PICT 2019-3416 and PICT 2020-03103) , Universidad Nacional de La Plata (UNLP-Grant 11/X840) . Also, financial support from CSIC (i-COOP, ref COOPB22038) and the Spanish (project PID2021-128348NB-I00 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033/and "FEDER a way of making Europe", Sever Ochoa Center of Excellence Program CEX2021-001230-S) and regional (CIAICO/2021/061) governments is acknowledged. The authors deeply acknowledge Lic. Bruno Campanella (INIFTA, Argentina) for his valu-able helps with the Laser Flash Photolysis measurements. J. J. F. thanks CONICET for doctoral research fellowship. M.L.D., M.P.S and A.H.T are research members of CONICET.Farias, JJ.; Lizondo-Aranda, P.; Serrano, MP.; Thomas, AH.; Lhiaubet, VL.; Dantola, ML. (2024). Chemical modification of 5-hydroxytryptophan photoinduced by endogenous sensitizers present in skin. Dyes and Pigments. 223. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dyepig.2023.11191922

Proyecto de desarrollo inteligente, Departamento Burruyacu - Tucumán : Propuesta integrada con distintos actores institucionales a partir de mesa de gestión territorial

El presente proyecto “Desarrollo Inteligente del Departamento Burruyacu – Tucumán” elaborado en base a un diagnostico participativo que dio como resultado, ”ex ante”, el poder identificar una realidad con una problemática de territorio, basada en las siguientes dimensiones: a) Ambientales y de infraestructura b) Organizacionales y económicos c) De competitividad, en las economías locales d) Educativos y de articulación institucional. Las posibilidades de avanzar en proyectos que contemplen solo las inherentes a inversiones productivas no tenían un origen genuino en el espíritu emprendedor de los habitantes y productores de la zona Este del Departamento (Gobernador Piedrabuena, Gobernador Garmendia y 7 de Abril) pero si se pudo identificar un importante sector de potenciales productores porcinos, bovinos de carne y avícolas, - cadenas no relevantes en la zona -, más un gran número de productores agrícolas –pequeños y medianos - en plena actividad, pero con nulas experiencias en producción pecuaria. Con esto, la provincia a través de sus herramientas de políticas publicas, puso la mirada en la concepción de estos nuevos enfoques de desarrollo territorial, con proyectos que posibilitarán desarrollar con equidad y sustentabilidad dicha zona profundizando los 4 ejes estratégicos.This project "Smart Development of Burruyacu Department- Tucumán" was developed based on a participative diagnose that gave as "ex ante" result, the possibility of identifying a reality related with a territorial problem, based on the following dimensions: a) Environmental and infrastructure, b) Organizational and economic, c) Competitiveness, local economies, d) Educational and institutional coordination. The chances of advancing with projects that include only productive investments had no genuine origin in the entrepreneurial spirit of general people and growers from the east of the Department (Gobernador Piedrabuena, Gobernador Garmendia and 7 de Abril). However, an important sector of potential producers of pig, goat meat and poultry - not relevant chains in the area- could be identified, plus a large number of small and medium farmers dealing with agriculture but with zero experience in livestock production. Under this frame, the provincial government through public policy tools, looked at the design of these new approaches to territorial development, with projects that will enable sustainable development with equity and deepening the four strategic axes in the area. The concept of territorial development, including rural areas, has traditionally been associated with the search for viability of the most remote areas, inaccessible and that suffered various forms of marginality. However, the rurality has changed significantly. Among the changes identified by different authors are: a) the increase in the importance of non-farm activities in generating employment and income for the rural population; b ) increasing integration of urban and rural areas; c) the importance of integrating concerns for sustainable management of the environment and natural resources; d) the changes in rural institutions, e) the recognition of the importance of new social players f) new and higher expectations of consumers and markets; g) the role of new information and communication technologies, h) the persistence of rural poverty and inequality, i) the persistence of regional and sectorial gaps.Facultad de Humanidades y Ciencias de la Educació

An Evaluation of the Contractionary Devaluation Hypothesis

Recent empirical and theoretical literature on the impact of real exchange rate devaluations on economic performance questions the traditional expansionary effect generated within standard Mundell-Fleming models. Contractionary devaluations may arise when firms face maturity or currency mismatches that, when faced with real exchange rate depreciations, lead to balance-sheet effects that erode firms' wealth and lead to an output contraction. While some authors show that the standard Mundell-Fleming result may hold even in the presence of currency mismatches, others point out that, if the balance sheet effect is large enough, devaluations can be contractionary. Using a large panel of 57 countries across the world and various newly constructed measures of dollarization, we test whether the balance sheet effect hypothesis has been relevant during the past decades in explaining economic downturns. Additionally, we explore the channels through which devaluations can be contractionary; in particular, we explore whether investment and consumption decisions are negatively affected by exchange rate devaluations under currency mismatches

Leading indicators of currency crises

This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning “signal ” that a currency crises may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include: exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices

Leading Indicators of Currency Crises

This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning "signal" that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.