Predictive performance of a competing risk cardiovascular prediction tool CRISK compared to QRISK3 in older people and those with comorbidity:population cohort study

BACKGROUND: Recommended cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction tools do not account for competing mortality risk and over-predict incident CVD in older and multimorbid people. The aim of this study was to derive and validate a competing risk model (CRISK) to predict incident CVD and compare its performance to that of QRISK3 in UK primary care. METHODS: We used UK linked primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD to identify people aged 25–84 years with no previous CVD or statin treatment split into derivation and validation cohorts. In the derivation cohort, we derived models using the same covariates as QRISK3 with Fine-Gray competing risk modelling alone (CRISK) and with Charlson Comorbidity score (CRISK-CCI) as an additional predictor of non-CVD death. In a separate validation cohort, we examined discrimination and calibration compared to QRISK3. Reclassification analysis examined the number of patients recommended for treatment and the estimated number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent a new CVD event. RESULTS: The derivation and validation cohorts included 989,732 and 494,865 women and 946,784 and 473,392 men respectively. Overall discrimination of CRISK and CRISK-CCI were excellent and similar to QRISK3 (for women, C-statistic = 0.863/0.864/0.863 respectively; for men 0.833/0.819/0.832 respectively). CRISK and CRISK-CCI calibration overall and in younger people was excellent. CRISK over-predicted in older and multimorbid people although performed better than QRISK3, whilst CRISK-CCI performed the best. The proportion of people reclassified by CRISK-CCI varied by QRISK3 risk score category, with 0.7–9.7% of women and 2.8–25.2% of men reclassified as higher risk and 21.0–69.1% of women and 27.1–57.4% of men reclassified as lower risk. Overall, CRISK-CCI recommended fewer people for treatment and had a lower estimated NNT at 10% risk threshold. Patients reclassified as higher risk were younger, had lower SBP and higher BMI, and were more likely to smoke. CONCLUSIONS: CRISK and CRISK-CCI performed better than QRISK3. CRISK-CCI recommends fewer people for treatment and has a lower NNT to prevent a new CVD event compared to QRISK3. Competing risk models should be recommended for CVD primary prevention treatment recommendations. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12916-022-02349-6

Oral Co-Supplementation of Curcumin, Quercetin, and Vitamin D3 as an Adjuvant Therapy for Mild to Moderate Symptoms of COVID-19-Results From a Pilot Open-Label, Randomized Controlled Trial

Background: Curcumin, quercetin, and vitamin D3 (cholecalciferol) are common natural ingredients of human nutrition and reportedly exhibit promising anti-inflammatory, immunomodulatory, broad-spectrum antiviral, and antioxidant activities. Objective: The present study aimed to investigate the possible therapeutic benefits of a single oral formulation containing supplements curcumin, quercetin, and cholecalciferol (combinedly referred to here as CQC) as an adjuvant therapy for early-stage of symptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a pilot open-label, randomized controlled trial conducted at Mayo Hospital, King Edward Medical University, Lahore, Pakistan. Methods: Reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) confirmed, mild to moderate symptomatic COVID-19 outpatients were randomized to receive either the standard of care (SOC) (n = 25) (control arm) or a daily oral co-supplementation of 168 mg curcumin, 260 mg quercetin, and 9 µg (360 IU) of cholecalciferol, as two oral soft capsules b.i.d. as an add-on to the SOC (n = 25) (CQC arm) for 14 days. The SOC includes paracetamol with or without antibiotic (azithromycin). Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RT-PCR test, acute symptoms, and biochemistry including C-reactive protein (CRP), D-dimer, lactate dehydrogenase, ferritin, and complete blood count were evaluated at baseline and follow-up day seven. Results: Patients who received the CQC adjuvant therapy showed expedited negativization of the SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test, i.e., 15 (60.0%) vs. five (20.0%) of the control arm, p = 0.009. COVID-19- associated acute symptoms were rapidly resolved in the CQC arm, i.e., 15 (60.0%) vs. 10 (40.0%) of the control arm, p = 0.154. Patients in the CQC arm experienced a greater fall in serum CRP levels, i.e., from (median (IQR) 34.0 (21.0, 45.0) to 11.0 (5.0, 16.0) mg/dl as compared to the control arm, i.e., from 36.0 (28.0, 47.0) to 22.0 (15.0, 25.0) mg/dl, p = 0.006. The adjuvant therapy of co-supplementation of CQC was safe and well-tolerated by all 25 patients and no treatment-emergent effects, complications, side effects, or serious adverse events were reported. Conclusion: The co-supplementation of CQC may possibly have a therapeutic role in the early stage of COVID-19 infection including speedy negativization of the SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test, resolution of acute symptoms, and modulation of the hyperinflammatory response. In combination with routine care, the adjuvant co-supplementation of CQC may possibly help in the speedy recovery from early-stage mild to moderate symptoms of COVID-19. Further research is warranted. Clinical Trial Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov, identifier NCT0513067

Vitamin D deficiency (VDD) and susceptibility towards severe Dengue fever:a prospective cross-sectional study of hospitalized Dengue fever patients from Lahore, Pakistan

Dengue is a mosquito-borne flaviviral serious febrile illness, most common in the tropical and subtropical regions including Pakistan. Vitamin D is a strong immunomodulator affecting both the innate and adaptive immune responses and plays a pivotal role in pathogen-defense mechanisms. There has been considerable interest in the possible role of vitamin D in dengue viral (DENV) infection. In the present prospective cross-sectional study, we assessed a possible association between serum vitamin D deficiency (VDD) and susceptibility towards severe dengue fever (DF) illness. Serum vitamin D levels were measured at the time of hospitalization in 97 patients diagnosed with dengue fever (DF), dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) or dengue shock syndrome (DSS) at Mayo Hospital, King Edward Medical University, Lahore, PK, from 16 November 2021 to 15 January 2022. In terms of disease severity, 37 (38.1%) patients were DF, 52 (53.6%) were DHF grade 1 and 2, and 8 (8.2%) were DSS. The results revealed that most patients (75 (77.3%)) were vitamin-D-deficient (i.e., serum level &lt; 20 ng/mL), including 27 (73.0%) in DF, 41 (78.8%) in DHF grade 1 and 2, and 7 (87.5%) in DSS. The degree of VDD was somewhat higher in DSS patients as compared to DF and DHF grade 1 and 2 patients. Overall, serum vitamin D levels ranged from 4.2 to 109.7 ng/mL, and the median (IQR) was in the VDD range, i.e., 12.2 (9.1, 17.8) ng/mL. Our results suggest that there may be a possible association between VDD and susceptibility towards severe dengue illness. Hence, maintaining sufficient vitamin D levels in the body either through diet or supplementation may help provide adequate immune protection against severe dengue fever illness. Further research is warranted.</p

Clarifying the relationship between metformin, acute kidney injury and lactic acidosis

No abstract available

Risk of cardiovascular disease and total mortality in adults with type 1 diabetes: Scottish registry linkage study

&lt;p&gt;Background: Randomized controlled trials have shown the importance of tight glucose control in type 1 diabetes (T1DM), but few recent studies have evaluated the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality among adults with T1DM. We evaluated these risks in adults with T1DM compared with the non-diabetic population in a nationwide study from Scotland and examined control of CVD risk factors in those with T1DM.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Methods and Findings: The Scottish Care Information-Diabetes Collaboration database was used to identify all people registered with T1DM and aged ≥20 years in 2005–2007 and to provide risk factor data. Major CVD events and deaths were obtained from the national hospital admissions database and death register. The age-adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) for CVD and mortality in T1DM (n = 21,789) versus the non-diabetic population (3.96 million) was estimated using Poisson regression. The age-adjusted IRR for first CVD event associated with T1DM versus the non-diabetic population was higher in women (3.0: 95% CI 2.4–3.8, p&#60;0.001) than men (2.3: 2.0–2.7, p&#60;0.001) while the IRR for all-cause mortality associated with T1DM was comparable at 2.6 (2.2–3.0, p&#60;0.001) in men and 2.7 (2.2–3.4, p&#60;0.001) in women. Between 2005–2007, among individuals with T1DM, 34 of 123 deaths among 10,173 who were &#60;40 years and 37 of 907 deaths among 12,739 who were ≥40 years had an underlying cause of death of coma or diabetic ketoacidosis. Among individuals 60–69 years, approximately three extra deaths per 100 per year occurred among men with T1DM (28.51/1,000 person years at risk), and two per 100 per year for women (17.99/1,000 person years at risk). 28% of those with T1DM were current smokers, 13% achieved target HbA1c of &#60;7% and 37% had very poor (≥9%) glycaemic control. Among those aged ≥40, 37% had blood pressures above even conservative targets (≥140/90 mmHg) and 39% of those ≥40 years were not on a statin. Although many of these risk factors were comparable to those previously reported in other developed countries, CVD and mortality rates may not be generalizable to other countries. Limitations included lack of information on the specific insulin therapy used.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Conclusions: Although the relative risks for CVD and total mortality associated with T1DM in this population have declined relative to earlier studies, T1DM continues to be associated with higher CVD and death rates than the non-diabetic population. Risk factor management should be improved to further reduce risk but better treatment approaches for achieving good glycaemic control are badly needed.&lt;/p&gt

Cohort Profile:Scottish Diabetes Research Network Type 1 Bioresource Study (SDRNT1BIO)

No abstract available

A library of quantitative markers of seizure severity

OBJECTIVE: Understanding fluctuations in seizure severity within individuals is important for determining treatment outcomes and responses to therapy, as well as assessing novel treatments for epilepsy. Current methods for grading seizure severity rely on qualitative interpretations from patients and clinicians. Quantitative measures of seizure severity would complement existing approaches, for electroencephalographic (EEG) monitoring, outcome monitoring, and seizure prediction. Therefore, we developed a library of quantitative EEG markers that assess the spread and intensity of abnormal electrical activity during and after seizures. METHODS: We analysed intracranial EEG (iEEG) recordings of 1009 seizures from 63 patients. For each seizure we computed 16 markers of seizure severity that capture the signal magnitude, spread, duration, and post-ictal suppression of seizures. RESULTS: Quantitative EEG markers of seizure severity distinguished focal vs. subclinical seizures across patients. In individual patients 53% had a moderate to large difference (ranksum r>0.3, p<0.05) between focal and subclinical seizures in three or more markers. Circadian and longer-term changes in severity were found for the majority of patients. SIGNIFICANCE: We demonstrate the feasibility of using quantitative iEEG markers to measure seizure severity. Our quantitative markers distinguish between seizure types and are therefore sensitive to established qualitative differences in seizure severity. Our results also suggest that seizure severity is modulated over different timescales. We envisage that our proposed seizure severity library will be expanded and updated in collaboration with the epilepsy research community to include more measures and modalities. © 2023 International League Against Epilepsy