Demographic shocks: the view from history

The paper will basically deal with four issues. The first one puts current changes or shifts into a historical comparative perspective. The second deals with "traditional" shocks or violent disturbances of the system and their consequences. The third discusses the "seismic" changes experienced in the past, attempts their measurement, and exemplifies their effects on population and society. The fourth deals with the relevance that past experience has for current changes.Demography ; Economic conditions

The Depopulation of Upper Amazonia in Colonial Times

In Upper Amazonia, after an initial disastrous penetration of Spanish colonists, the Jesuits began the task of evangelization in 1638. A network of Missions covered the territory and some statistics were collected. The indigenous demographic system was characterized by high mobility and high fragmentation of the various communities, as well as rapid turnover of the missions' population. The Iberian intrusion increased the fragmentation, and many nations migrated away from the riverine areas (várzea) into the rainforest, with less favorable living conditions. This process may have pushed a number of communities under the threshold of minimum size for viability, thus accelerating the demographic collapse.En el Alto Amazonas, después de la desastrosa penetración inicial de los colonos españoles, los jesuitas empezaron la tarea de evangelización en 1638. Una red de misiones cubrió todo el territorio y se recogieron estadísticas. El sistema demográfico indígena se caracterizó por su alta movilidad y la gran fragmentación de algunas comunidades, además de por la rápida rotación de la población de las misiones. La intrusión ibérica aumentó esta fragmentación y muchas naciones migraron fuera de las zonas ribereñas (várzea) hacia la selva, donde las condiciones de vida eran menos favorables. Puede que este proceso empujara a muchas comunidades por debajo del umbral mínimo de la viabilidad y acelerase el colapso demográfico

The Depopulation of Hispanic America after the Conquest

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Las múltiples causas de la catástrofe: consideraciones teóricas y empíricas

The aim of this article is to contribute to the analysis of the indigenous population decline, namely the weight, role and function of every one of the causes that originated it. It is argued that the attention given to epidemies and pathologies has entailed a simplification that may seriously distort the historical interpretation of the demographic catastrophe, and that other contributing factors must be analyzed. Special attention is given to two of these factors which weigh on reproductivity and, therefore, on the capacity of reaction to crisis and mortality, namely the «displacement effect» and the «substraction effect» –social displacement and taking away of the reproductive heritage.El objetivo de este estudio es contribuir a la difícil labor de analizar el peso, el papel y la función de cada una de las causas que originaron el declive demográfico de los pueblos indígenas. La importancia que se ha dado a las epidemias y patologías en el descenso de la población ha llevado a una simplificación que puede distorsionar gravemente la interpretación histórica de la catástrofe demográfica. Junto a las epidemias, deben analizarse otros factores que contribuyeron al descenso de dicha población. Dos de ellos merecen una especial atención, ya que afectan a la reproductividad y por consiguiente, a la capacidad de reacción frente a las crisis y a los episodios de mayor mortalidad; nos referimos al «efecto de desplazamiento» y al «efecto de sustracción», desplazamiento social y sustracción del patrimonio reproductivo

Guardando al futuro. La questione dei 4 miliardi

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Italy’s Path to Very Low Fertility: The Adequacy of Economic and Second Demographic Transition Theories: Le cheminement de l’Italie vers les très basses fécondités: Adéquation des théories économique et de seconde transition démographique

The deep drop of the fertility rate in Italy to among the lowest in the world challenges contemporary theories of childbearing and family building. Among high-income countries, Italy was presumed to have characteristics of family values and female labor force participation that would favor higher fertility than its European neighbors to the north. We test competing economic and cultural explanations, drawing on new nationally representative, longitudinal data to examine first union, first birth, and second birth. Our event history analysis finds some support for economic determinants of family formation and fertility, but the clear importance of regional differences and of secularization suggests that such an explanation is at best incomplete and that cultural and ideational factors must be considered

Does socioeconomic status matter? The fertility transition in a northern Italian village (marriage cohorts 1900‒1940)

Background: The paper explores the mechanisms of the European fertility transition in northern Italy by social group. Objective: Our objective is to understand when and in which sectors of a rural society the reduction of family size began. We focus on Emilia-Romagna, a region that in the 1990s had the lowest fertility level in Italy. The core purpose of this paper is the analysis of socioeconomic status (SES) fertility differentials, especially between rural sharecroppers and landless rural workers, as well as other non-agricultural groups. Methods: Our analysis focuses on the reproductive histories of marriage cohorts in the years 1900‒1940. We perform a micro-level statistical analysis of legitimate births of parity 1+. Results: In this period fertility decline has just begun, and shows a strong decline in the post-WWI marriage cohorts. Although nonagricultural groups lead the downward trend in family size, the role of socioeconomic status means that the path of sharecropper households is atypical. Conclusions: The fertility transition proceeds by means of spacing and stopping, testifying to a new attitude towards birth control, which agricultural and nonagricultural social groups adopted in different ways. Usually, the decline in fertility progresses from nonagricultural to rural classes. In the rural world the path is inverted, going from the lower to the upper groups. Contribution: The paper contributes to the debate on the links between socioeconomic status and fertility transition in Italy. It shows that the link between household economy and control of fertility is specific to SES groups, which can follow atypical paths, compared to the known reference model. The use of microdemographic data provides evidence for the hypothesis that the fertility transition can be shaped by the specific social and economic characteristics of population subgroups

Generazioni, famiglie, migrazioni. Pensando all’Italia di domani

L'Italia e la questione demografica: denatalità, invecchiamento, immigrazione e famiglia. Una sintesi di autorevoli studiosi di popolazione pensata per i decisori politici e amministrativi, e più in generale per chiunque voglia aggiornare le proprie conoscenze su un tema cruciale per la comprensione dei futuri equilibri economici e sociali dell’Italia di domani.- Indice #5- Premessa, Marco Demarie e Giuseppe Gesano #7- Generazioni e invecchiamento, Giuseppe Gesano e Antonio Golini #11- Famiglia e figli, Alessandro Rosina, Francesco Billari e Massimo Livi Bacci #43- Immigrazione e presenza straniera, Gian Carlo Blangiardo e Stefano Molina #7