Extreme Value Theory Approach to Simultaneous Monitoring and Thresholding of Multiple Risk Indicators

Risk assessments often encounter extreme settings with very few or no occurrences in reality.Inferences about risk indicators in such settings face the problem of insufficient data.Extreme value theory is particularly well suited for handling this type of problems.This paper uses a multivariate extreme value theory approach to establish thresholds for signaling levels of risk in the context of simultaneous monitoring of multiple risk indicators.The proposed threshold system is well justified in terms of extreme multivariate quantiles, and its sample estimator is shown to be consistent.As an illustration, the proposed approach is applied to developing a threshold system for monitoring airline performance measures.This threshold system assigns different risk levels to observed airline performance measures.In particular, it divides the sample space into regions with increasing levels of risk.Moreover, in the univariate case, such a thresholding technique can be used to determine a suitable cut-off point on a runway for holding short of landing aircrafts.This cut-off point is chosen to ensure a certain required level of safety when allowing simultaneous operations on two intersecting runways in order to ease air traffic congestion.Extreme value theory;extreme quantile;multiple risk indicators;multivariate quantile;rare event;statistics of extremes;threshold system

Extreme Value Theory Approach to Simultaneous Monitoring and Thresholding of Multiple Risk Indicators

Risk assessments often encounter extreme settings with very few or no occurrences in reality.Inferences about risk indicators in such settings face the problem of insufficient data.Extreme value theory is particularly well suited for handling this type of problems.This paper uses a multivariate extreme value theory approach to establish thresholds for signaling levels of risk in the context of simultaneous monitoring of multiple risk indicators.The proposed threshold system is well justified in terms of extreme multivariate quantiles, and its sample estimator is shown to be consistent.As an illustration, the proposed approach is applied to developing a threshold system for monitoring airline performance measures.This threshold system assigns different risk levels to observed airline performance measures.In particular, it divides the sample space into regions with increasing levels of risk.Moreover, in the univariate case, such a thresholding technique can be used to determine a suitable cut-off point on a runway for holding short of landing aircrafts.This cut-off point is chosen to ensure a certain required level of safety when allowing simultaneous operations on two intersecting runways in order to ease air traffic congestion.

Understanding of hydrogel network formation and its application in the architecture of significantly enhanced hydrogel

An understanding of the physical hydrogel network formation has been obtained by dynamic rheological experiments. The evidence shows that the network formation turns out to be a nucleation-controlled process. It was found that there exists a critical temperature Tc; fiber branching is greatly enhanced when the network formation is performed in the regime of T&lt;Tc (T, the final setting temperature). This finding enables the authors to build significantly enhanced gel networks. So far G&prime; (elastic modulus) of the hydrogel network has been enhanced by 187% while the formation period can be greatly shortened to only 1/20 of the previous process.<br /

Superluminal optical pulse propagation in nonlinear coherent media

The propagation of light-pulse with negative group-velocity in a nonlinear medium is studied theoretically. We show that the necessary conditions for these effects to be observable are realized in a three-level $\Lambda$-system interacting with a linearly polarized laser beam in the presence of a static magnetic field. In low power regime, when all other nonlinear processes are negligible, the light-induced Zeeman coherence cancels the resonant absorption of the medium almost completely, but preserves the dispersion anomalous and very high. As a result, a superluminal light pulse propagation can be observed in the sense that the peak of the transmitted pulse exits the medium before the peak of the incident pulse enters. There is no violation of causality and energy conservation. Moreover, the superluminal effects are prominently manifested in the reshaping of pulse, which is caused by the intensity-dependent pulse velocity. Unlike the shock wave formation in a nonlinear medium with normal dispersion, here, the self-steepening of the pulse trailing edge takes place due to the fact that the more intense parts of the pulse travel slower. The predicted effect can be easily observed in the well known schemes employed for studying of nonlinear magneto-optical rotation. The upper bound of sample length is found from the criterion that the pulse self-steepening and group-advance time are observable without pulse distortion caused by the group-velocity dispersion.Comment: 16 pages, 7 figure

Affine equivariant rank-weighted L-estimation of multivariate location

In the multivariate one-sample location model, we propose a class of flexible robust, affine-equivariant L-estimators of location, for distributions invoking affine-invariance of Mahalanobis distances of individual observations. An involved iteration process for their computation is numerically illustrated.Comment: 16 pages, 4 figures, 6 table

A Physical Internet-enabled Building Information Modelling System For Prefabricated Construction

Prefabricated construction is believed to be energy conserving though opportunities for achieving higher energy efficiency have yet to be fully harnessed. From investigation of a prefabricated construction project in Hong Kong, two main problems have been revealed relating to energy consumption, including: i) inefficient management of resources such as labours and machines, and ii) inefficient production, transportation, and on-site assembly of prefabricated components. These problems are primarily caused by lagged information communication and human errors. This paper seeks to offer a solution by developing a Physical Internet-enabled Building Information Modelling System (PI-BIMS) that integrates Auto-ID technologies, BIM, and cloud computing. The PI-BIMS enables real-time collection, communication, and visualization of information across the processes of production, transportation, and on-site assembly. Practical issues of the system implementation are provided through a pilot prototype. It is found that the PI-BIMS helps enhance the resource allocation efficiency and decrease human errors. Thus, an alternative opportunity to improve energy efficiency in prefabricated construction has become possible

Partial wave analysis of J/\psi \to \gamma \phi \phi

Using $5.8 \times 10^7 J/\psi$ events collected in the BESII detector, the radiative decay $J/\psi \to \gamma \phi \phi \to \gamma K^+ K^- K^0_S K^0_L$ is studied. The $\phi\phi$ invariant mass distribution exhibits a near-threshold enhancement that peaks around 2.24 GeV/$c^{2}$. A partial wave analysis shows that the structure is dominated by a $0^{-+}$ state ($\eta(2225)$) with a mass of $2.24^{+0.03}_{-0.02}{}^{+0.03}_{-0.02}$ GeV/$c^{2}$ and a width of $0.19 \pm 0.03^{+0.06}_{-0.04}$ GeV/$c^{2}$. The product branching fraction is: $Br(J/\psi \to \gamma \eta(2225))\cdot Br(\eta(2225)\to \phi\phi) = (4.4 \pm 0.4 \pm 0.8)\times 10^{-4}$.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures. corrected proof for journa

Dispersive properties of quasi-phase-matched optical parametric amplifiers

The dispersive properties of non-degenerate optical parametric amplification in quasi-phase-matched (QPM) nonlinear quadratic crystals with an arbitrary grating profile are theoretically investigated in the no-pump-depletion limit. The spectral group delay curve of the amplifier is shown to be univocally determined by its spectral power gain curve through a Hilbert transform. Such a constraint has important implications on the propagation of spectrally-narrow optical pulses through the amplifier. In particular, it is shown that anomalous transit times, corresponding to superluminal or even negative group velocities, are possible near local minima of the spectral gain curve. A possible experimental observation of such effects using a QPM Lithium-Niobate crystal is suggested.Comment: submitted for publicatio

Measurements of the observed cross sections for e+e−→e^+e^-\to exclusive light hadrons containing π0π0\pi^0\pi^0 at s=3.773\sqrt s= 3.773, 3.650 and 3.6648 GeV

By analyzing the data sets of 17.3, 6.5 and 1.0 pb$^{-1}$ taken, respectively, at $\sqrt s= 3.773$, 3.650 and 3.6648 GeV with the BES-II detector at the BEPC collider, we measure the observed cross sections for $e^+e^-\to \pi^+\pi^-\pi^0\pi^0$, $K^+K^-\pi^0\pi^0$, $2(\pi^+\pi^-\pi^0)$, $K^+K^-\pi^+\pi^-\pi^0\pi^0$ and $3(\pi^+\pi^-)\pi^0\pi^0$ at the three energy points. Based on these cross sections we set the upper limits on the observed cross sections and the branching fractions for $\psi(3770)$ decay into these final states at 90% C.L..Comment: 7 pages, 2 figure