Productivity growth in one country affects the relative income and welfare of its trade partners

Large-scale changes in relative economic size necessarily involve heightened political tension and realignments, write Benny Kleinman, Ernest Liu and Stephen Reddin

International friends and enemies

We develop sufficient statistics of countries’ bilateral income and welfare exposure to foreign productivity shocks that are exact for small shocks in the class of models with a constant trade elasticity. For large shocks, we characterize the quality of the approximation, and show it to be almost exact. We compute these sufficient statistics for over 140 countries from 1970-2012. We show that our exposure measures depend on market-size, cross-substitution and cost of living effects. As countries become greater economic friends in terms of welfare exposure, they become greater political friends in terms of United Nations voting and strategic rivalries

Centennial- to millennial-scale hard rock erosion rates deduced from luminescence-depth profiles

The measurement of erosion and weathering rates in different geomorphic settings and over diverse temporal and spatial scales is fundamental to the quantification of rates and patterns of earth surface processes. A knowledge of the rates of these surface processes helps one to decipher their relative contribution to landscape evolution – information that is crucial to understanding the interaction between climate, tectonics and landscape. Consequently, a wide range of techniques has been developed to determine short- (<102 a) and long-term (>104 a) erosion rates. However, no method is available to quantify hard rock erosion rates at centennial to millennial timescales. Here we propose a novel technique, based on the solar bleaching of luminescence signals with depth into rock surfaces, to bridge this analytical gap. We apply our technique to glacial and landslide boulders in the Eastern Pamirs, China. The calculated erosion rates from the smooth varnished surfaces of 7 out of the 8 boulders sampled in this study vary between <0.038±0.002 and 1.72±0.04 mmka-1 (the eighth boulder gave an anomalously high erosion rate, possibly due to a recent chipping/cracking loss of surface). Given this preferential sampling of smooth surfaces, assumed to arise from grain-by-grain surface loss, we consider these rates as minimum estimates of rock surface denudation rates in the Eastern Pamirs, China

Dynamic spatial general equilibrium

We develop a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model with forward-looking investment and migration decisions. We characterize analytically the transition path of the spatial distribution of economic activity in response to shocks. We apply our framework to the re-allocation of US economic activity from the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt from 1965-2015. We find slow convergence to steady-state, with US states closer to steady-state at the end of our sample period than at its beginning. We find substantial heterogeneity in the effects of local shocks, which depend on capital and labor dynamics, and the spatial and sectoral incidence of these shocks

Neoclassical growth in an interdependent world

We generalize the closed-economy neoclassical growth model (CNGM) to allow for costly goods trade and capital flows with imperfect substitutability between countries. We develop a tractable, multi-country, quantitative model that matches key features of the observed data (e.g., gravity equations for trade and capital holdings) and is well suited for analyzing counterfactual policies that affect both goods and capital market integration (e.g., U.S.-China decoupling). We show that goods and capital market integration interact in non-trivial ways to shape impulse responses to counterfactual changes in productivity and goods and capital market frictions and the speed of convergence to steady-state

A Gaussian process based data modelling and fusion method for multisensor coordinate measuring machines

Multisensor measurement technology is an emerging technology which makes use of combinations of two or more different types of sensor probes so as to further enhance the measurement capability of the traditional single sensor coordinate measurement machines (CMMs). The sensors can complement each other’s limitations and improve the measurement accuracy. Nowadays, the applications of multisensor CMMs are becoming more and more widespread and many CMM manufacturers are developing multisensor CMMs in their advanced production lines. For instances, ZEISS O-INSPECT [1] equips with a contact sensor, imaging sensor and white light distance sensor, which is able to provide a fast inspection by the image sensor and high accuracy 3D measurement results by the contact sensor and white light distance sensor. Werth VideoCheck [2], is designed to equip with many kinds of sensors such as trigger probe, fiber probe and video sensor which provides the measurement ability of small features with the help of the small-diameter fiber probe in the scale down to 20 μm, as well as a quick checking with the fast trigger probe and image sensor. Hexagon Optiv Classic [3] provides a vision sensor and a tough trigger probe, while Nikon [4] enhances the true 3D multi-sensor measurement by combining vision sensor, laser auto-focus sensor, tactile sensor and rotary indexer. The measurement range, resolution and flexibility are largely enhanced by the complementary of the different characteristics of various sensors. The combination of different types of sensors extends the measurement ability such as accuracy and measurement range of the CMMs. However, most of the multisensor CMMs are lack of an optimal strategy to perform multisensor measurement and fusion of data from different sensors. Some of the studies for multisensor CMM focused on complementary measurement for special geometrical features. Nashman et al. [5] used a camera sensor to locate and measure the feature such as object edges, corners and centroids while the touch sensor was used to measure other part of the object. The touch sensor was highly accurate with little noise. However, it could not measure sharp features such as edges and corners. Combining these two sensors enable the capability to gather high bandwidth global information and to obtain high accurate measurement information. Zexiao et al. [6] used a multi-probe system which consists of a structure light sensor and a trigger probe to measure multiple features including edges. However, the edges were not directly measured while they were generated by fitting the surfaces using the measured points on the relatively smooth surfaces instead. This paper presents a Gaussian process based data modelling and data fusion (GP-DMF) method which first estimates the mean surfaces and uncertainties of the datasets obtained from different sensors and combines the two measurement data into a single one with associated uncertainty. A series of simulation and measurement experiments have been conducted to verify the technical feasibility of the method. The results show that the fused data with a lower uncertainty are obtained. The proposed GP-DMF method attempts to provide a generalized data-orientation multi-sensor measurement method which does not rely on the sensor itself and this makes it having potential to be used in a wide application fields

H2S Donor, S-Propargyl-Cysteine, Increases CSE in SGC-7901 and Cancer-Induced Mice: Evidence for a Novel Anti-Cancer Effect of Endogenous H2S?

Background: S-propargyl-cysteine (SPRC), an H2S donor, is a structural analogue of S-allycysteine (SAC). It was investigated for its potential anti-cancer effect on SGC-7901 gastric cancer cells and the possible mechanisms that may be involved. Methods and Findings: SPRC treatment significantly decreased cell viability, suppressed the proliferation and migration of SPRC-7901 gastric cancer cells, was pro-apoptotic as well as caused cell cycle arrest at the G 1/S phase. In an in vivo study, intra-peritoneal injection of 50 mg/kg and 100 mg/kg of SPRC significantly reduced tumor weights and tumor volumes of gastric cancer implants in nude mice, with a tumor growth inhibition rate of 40–75%. SPRC also induced a pro-apoptotic effect in cancer tissues and elevated the expressions of p53 and Bax in tumors and cells. SPRC treatment also increased protein expression of cystathione-c-lyase (CSE) in cells and tumors, and elevated H 2S levels in cell culture media, plasma and tumoral CSE activity of gastric cancer-induced nude mice by 2, 2.3 and 1.4 fold, respectively. Most of the anti-cancer functions of SPRC on cells and tumors were significantly suppressed by PAG, an inhibitor of CSE activity. Conclusions: Taken together, the results of our study provide insights into a novel anti-cancer effect of H2S as well as o

The BAT AGN Spectroscopic Survey -- XVIII. Searching for Supermassive Black Hole Binaries in the X-rays

Theory predicts that a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) could be observed as a luminous active galactic nucleus (AGN) that periodically varies on the order of its orbital timescale. In X-rays, periodic variations could be caused by mechanisms including relativistic Doppler boosting and shocks. Here we present the first systematic search for periodic AGNs using $941$ hard X-ray light curves (14-195 keV) from the first 105 months of the Swift Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) survey (2004-2013). We do not find evidence for periodic AGNs in Swift-BAT, including the previously reported SMBHB candidate MCG+11$-$11$-$032. We find that the null detection is consistent with the combination of the upper-limit binary population in AGNs in our adopted model, their expected periodic variability amplitudes, and the BAT survey characteristics. We have also investigated the detectability of SMBHBs against normal AGN X-ray variability in the context of the eROSITA survey. Under our assumptions of a binary population and the periodic signals they produce which have long periods of hundreds of days, up to $13$% true periodic binaries can be robustly distinguished from normal variable AGNs with the ideal uniform sampling. However, we demonstrate that realistic eROSITA sampling is likely to be insensitive to long-period binaries because longer observing gaps reduce their detectability. In contrast, large observing gaps do not diminish the prospect of detecting binaries of short, few-day periods, as 19% can be successfully recovered, the vast majority of which can be identified by the first half of the survey.Comment: 17 pages, including 8 figures and 4 tables. Accepted for publication in Ap

Nonmyeloablative regimen preserves "niches" allowing for peripheral expansion of donor T-cells

AbstractT-cell recovery following myeloablative preparatory regimens and cord blood transplantation in adult patients gen erally occurs between 1 and 3 years following allogeneic bone marrow transplantation. T-cell reconstitution may involve thymic education of donor-derived precursors or peripheral expansion of mature T-cells transferred in the graft. We measured quantitative and qualitative immunologic reconstitution, T-cell receptor spectratyping, and T-cell receptor excision circle (TREC) levels in adult recipients of umbilical cord blood transplants following a novel nonmyeloablative regimen. These results were compared to previously published results of similar patients receiving a myeloablative regimen and cord blood stem cells. With small numbers of patients treated so far, T-cells (CD3+) reached normal levels in adults 6 to 12 months following nonmyeloablative transplantation compared with 24 months in adults receiving a myeloablative regimen. At 12 months after transplantation, the numbers of phenotypically naive (CD45RA) T-cells were higher in those receiving the nonmyeloablative regimen. The T-cell repertoire in cord blood recipients treated with a nonmyeloablative regimen was markedly more diverse and robust compared with the repertoire in those receiving the myeloablative regimen at similar time points. TRECs (which are generated within the thymus and identify new thymic emigrants and those that have not divided) were detected 12 months after transplantation in the nonmyeloablative recipients, whereas TRECs were not detected in adults until 18 to 24 months in those receiving myeloablative regimens. Thus, in adults receiving a nonmyeloablative preparatory regimen, the quantitative and qualitative recovery of T-cells occurs through rapid peripheral expansion. The ability of patients receiving a nonmyeloablative regimen to recover within a few months suggests that the peripheral niches in which T-cells can proliferate are preserved in these patients compared to those receiving ablative regimens. Moreover, the presence of TREC-positive cells within 1 year suggests that thymic recovery is likewise accelerated in non myeloablative compared to myeloablative regimens.Biol Blood Marrow Transplant 2002;8(5):249-56