The Effect of Self-Control on the Construction of Risk Perceptions

We show that the way decision makers construct risk perceptions is systematically influenced by their level of self-control: low self-control results in greater weighting of probability and reduced weighting of consequences of negative outcomes in formulating overall threat perceptions. Seven studies demonstrate such distorted risk construction in wide-ranging risk domains. The effects hold for both chronic and manipulated levels of perceived self-control and are observed only for risks involving high personal agency (e.g., overeating, smoking, drinking). As an important implication of our results, we also demonstrate that those lower (higher) in self-control show relatively less (more) interest in products and lifestyle changes reducing consequences (e.g., a pill that heals liver damage from drinking) than those reducing likelihood of risks (e.g., a pill that prevents liver damage from drinking). We also explore several possible underlying processes for the observed effect and discuss the theoretical and managerial relevance of our findings.postprin

A Sequential Shifting Algorithm for Variable Rotor Speed Control

A proof of concept of a continuously variable rotor speed control methodology for rotorcraft is described. Variable rotor speed is desirable for several reasons including improved maneuverability, agility, and noise reduction. However, it has been difficult to implement because turboshaft engines are designed to operate within a narrow speed band, and a reliable drive train that can provide continuous power over a wide speed range does not exist. The new methodology proposed here is a sequential shifting control for twin-engine rotorcraft that coordinates the disengagement and engagement of the two turboshaft engines in such a way that the rotor speed may vary over a wide range, but the engines remain within their prescribed speed bands and provide continuous torque to the rotor; two multi-speed gearboxes facilitate the wide rotor speed variation. The shifting process begins when one engine slows down and disengages from the transmission by way of a standard freewheeling clutch mechanism; the other engine continues to apply torque to the rotor. Once one engine disengages, its gear shifts, the multi-speed gearbox output shaft speed resynchronizes and it re-engages. This process is then repeated with the other engine. By tailoring the sequential shifting, the rotor may perform large, rapid speed changes smoothly, as demonstrated in several examples. The emphasis of this effort is on the coordination and control aspects for proof of concept. The engines, rotor, and transmission are all simplified linear models, integrated to capture the basic dynamics of the problem

Genetic and Neuroanatomical Support for Functional Brain Network Dynamics in Epilepsy

Focal epilepsy is a devastating neurological disorder that affects an overwhelming number of patients worldwide, many of whom prove resistant to medication. The efficacy of current innovative technologies for the treatment of these patients has been stalled by the lack of accurate and effective methods to fuse multimodal neuroimaging data to map anatomical targets driving seizure dynamics. Here we propose a parsimonious model that explains how large-scale anatomical networks and shared genetic constraints shape inter-regional communication in focal epilepsy. In extensive ECoG recordings acquired from a group of patients with medically refractory focal-onset epilepsy, we find that ictal and preictal functional brain network dynamics can be accurately predicted from features of brain anatomy and geometry, patterns of white matter connectivity, and constraints complicit in patterns of gene coexpression, all of which are conserved across healthy adult populations. Moreover, we uncover evidence that markers of non-conserved architecture, potentially driven by idiosyncratic pathology of single subjects, are most prevalent in high frequency ictal dynamics and low frequency preictal dynamics. Finally, we find that ictal dynamics are better predicted by white matter features and more poorly predicted by geometry and genetic constraints than preictal dynamics, suggesting that the functional brain network dynamics manifest in seizures rely on - and may directly propagate along - underlying white matter structure that is largely conserved across humans. Broadly, our work offers insights into the generic architectural principles of the human brain that impact seizure dynamics, and could be extended to further our understanding, models, and predictions of subject-level pathology and response to intervention

System Would Detect Foreign-Object Damage in Turbofan Engine

A proposed data-fusion system, to be implemented mostly in software, would further process the digitized and preprocessed outputs of sensors in a turbofan engine to detect foreign-object damage (FOD) [more precisely, damage caused by impingement of such foreign objects as birds, pieces of ice, and runway debris]. The proposed system could help a flight crew to decide what, if any, response is necessary to complete a flight safely, and could aid mechanics in deciding what post-flight maintenance action might be needed. The sensory information to be utilized by the proposed system would consist of (1) the output of an accelerometer in an engine-vibration-monitoring subsystem and (2) features extracted from a gas path analysis. ["Gas path analysis" (GPA) is a term of art that denotes comprehensive analysis of engine performance derived from readings of fuel-flow meters, shaft-speed sensors, temperature sensors, and the like.] The acceleration signal would first be processed by a wavelet-transform-based algorithm, using a wavelet created for the specific purpose of finding abrupt FOD-induced changes in noisy accelerometer signals. Two additional features extracted would be the amplitude of vibration (determined via a single- frequency Fourier transform calculated at the rotational speed of the engine), and the rate of change in amplitude due to an FOD-induced rotor imbalance. This system would utilize two GPA features: the fan efficiency and the rate of change of fan efficiency with time. The selected GPA and vibrational features would be assessed by two fuzzy-logic inference engines, denoted the "Gas Path Expert" and the "Vibration Expert," respectively (see Figure 1). Each of these inference engines would generate a "possibility" distribution for occurrence of an FOD event: Each inference engine would assign, to its input information, degrees of membership, which would subsequently be transformed into basic probability assignments for the gas path and vibration components. The outputs of the inference engines would be fused by use of Dempster s combination algorithm (more precisely, an algorithm, based on the Dempster-Shafer-Yager theory of evidence, for fusing uncertain or imprecise information) to provide a reduced body of information to a human or computer decision maker. Figure 2 depicts some outputs generated in response to simulated accelerometer and GPA signal

Disrupted seasonal clockwork in the population dynamics of a freshwater copepod by climate warming

Life history responses are expected to accompany climate warming, yet little is known how long-term effects of climate and environmental change affect the seasonal dynamics of planktonic organisms. We used an historical data set from Lake Washington (U.S.A.) to quantify population responses of a calanoid copepod (Leptodiaptomus ashlandi) to long-term changes in temperature and resource availability and explore potential mechanisms for the responses. Increasing water temperatures (annual mean increase of 1.5 degrees C in the upper 10-m water volume) and longer stratification periods (about 4 weeks) were observed between 1962 and 2005, coincident with a pronounced decline in Leptodiaptomus densities. However, production was maintained because of an increase in the production to biomass ratio and a life cycle shift in Leptodiaptomus from an annual to a 6-month cycle. Cross-wavelet analyses demonstrated that the annual thermal forcing of copepod recruitment observed during the first two decades of the study weakened substantially, leading to more stochastic population dynamics during the past two decades. This shift from one to two generations per year was most likely produced by a longer and warmer growing period combined with changing fluctuations in resource (phytoplankton) availability. Climate change can lead to higher-frequency voltinism in ectothermic organisms and to temporal reorganization of their population dynamics

Non-equilibrium dynamics and floral trait interactions shape extant angiosperm diversity.

Why are some traits and trait combinations exceptionally common across the tree of life, whereas others are vanishingly rare? The distribution of trait diversity across a clade at any time depends on the ancestral state of the clade, the rate at which new phenotypes evolve, the differences in speciation and extinction rates across lineages, and whether an equilibrium has been reached. Here we examine the role of transition rates, differential diversification (speciation minus extinction) and non-equilibrium dynamics on the evolutionary history of angiosperms, a clade well known for the abundance of some trait combinations and the rarity of others. Our analysis reveals that three character states (corolla present, bilateral symmetry, reduced stamen number) act synergistically as a key innovation, doubling diversification rates for lineages in which this combination occurs. However, this combination is currently less common than predicted at equilibrium because the individual characters evolve infrequently. Simulations suggest that angiosperms will remain far from the equilibrium frequencies of character states well into the future. Such non-equilibrium dynamics may be common when major innovations evolve rarely, allowing lineages with ancestral forms to persist, and even outnumber those with diversification-enhancing states, for tens of millions of years

Piloted Simulation Evaluation of a Model-Predictive Automatic Recovery System to Prevent Vehicle Loss of Control on Approach

This paper describes a model-predictive automatic recovery system for aircraft on the verge of a loss-of-control situation. The system determines when it must intervene to prevent an imminent accident, resulting from a poor approach. It estimates the altitude loss that would result from a go-around maneuver at the current flight condition. If the loss is projected to violate a minimum altitude threshold, the maneuver is automatically triggered. The system deactivates to allow landing once several criteria are met. Piloted flight simulator evaluation showed the system to provide effective envelope protection during extremely unsafe landing attempts. The results demonstrate how flight and propulsion control can be integrated to recover control of the vehicle automatically and prevent a potential catastrophe

Sensory imagery in craving: From cognitive psychology to new treatments for addiction

Sensory imagery is a powerful tool for inducing craving because it is a key component of the cognitive system that underpins human motivation. The role of sensory imagery in motivation is explained by Elaborated Intrusion (EI) theory. Imagery plays an important role in motivation because it conveys the emotional qualities of the desired event, mimicking anticipated pleasure or relief, and continual elaboration of the imagery ensures that the target stays in mind. We argue that craving is a conscious state, intervening between unconscious triggers and consumption, and summarise evidence that interfering with sensory imagery can weaken cravings. We argue that treatments for addiction can be enhanced by the application of EI theory to maintain motivation, and assist in the management of craving in high-risk situations