The demographic challenge facing Scottish HEIs: a computable general equilibrium analysis

This paper measures the regional demand impacts on output and employment of Scottish Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) based on Input-Output tables for the year 2006. The HEI disaggregated table was developed from existing Input-Output tables using supplementary data from HESA and purchasing data for Scottish universities. We calculate direct, indirect and induced impacts. Most of the existing literature focuses on individual institutions by employing Keynesian Multiplier or Input-Output analysis. This paper adds to the literature by providing the first systematic study of all individual HEIs using a common framework of analysis. The results suggest that HEIs may have substantial regional economic impacts both in terms of output and employment. Furthermore analysis of the HEIs' income sources suggests they are more export intensive than is commonly acknowledged, which motivates a re-evaluation of the appropriate counterfactual in regional impact studies of HEIs. Keywords: HEIs, University Impact, Input-Output

Impact of HEIs on the Scottish economy: new evidence from an HEI-disaggregated input-output approach

This paper measures the regional demand impacts on output and employment of Scottish Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) based on Input-Output tables for the year 2006. The HEI disaggregated table was developed from existing Input-Output tables using supplementary data from HESA and purchasing data for Scottish universities. We calculate direct, indirect and induced impacts. Most of the existing literature focuses on individual institutions by employing Keynesian Multiplier or Input-Output analysis. This paper adds to the literature by providing the first systematic study of all individual HEIs using a common framework of analysis. The results suggest that HEIs may have substantial regional economic impacts both in terms of output and employment. Furthermore analysis of the HEIs' income sources suggests they are more export intensive than is commonly acknowledged, which motivates a re-evaluation of the appropriate counterfactual in regional impact studies of HEIs. Keywords: HEIs, University Impact, Input-Output

The impact of higher education institutions (HEIs) on the Scottish economy : new evidence from an HEI-disaggregated input-output approach

This paper measures the regional demand impacts on output and employment of Scottish Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) based on Input-Output tables for the year 2006. The HEI disaggregated table was developed from existing Input-Output tables using supplementary data from HESA and purchasing data for Scottish universities. We calculate direct, indirect and induced impacts. Most of the existing literature focuses on individual institutions by employing Keynesian Multiplier or Input-Output analysis. This paper adds to the literature by providing the first systematic study of all individual HEIs using a common framework of analysis. The results suggest that HEIs may have substantial regional economic impacts both in terms of output and employment. Furthermore analysis of the HEIs’ income sources suggests they are more export intensive than is commonly acknowledged, which motivates a re-evaluation of the appropriate counterfactual in regional impact studies of HEIs

The demographic challenge facing Scottish higher education institutions : a computable general equilibrium analysis

Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) are generally regarded as important actors in regional economic development. A large literature exists on their demand side impacts as employers and as purchasers of intermediate inputs and, more recently, work has been undertaken to explore their impacts on the supply side, for example, through labour market and knowledge transfer effects. A growing evidence base suggests that HEIs have a positive impact upon the development of their host regions. However the HEI sector faces a challenge that might have significant impact on the fortunes of its host regions and has hitherto received limited attention. The populations of most developed countries are ageing and the age cohort from which university students are traditionally drawn is expected to shrink. This paper uses an HEIs-disaggregated Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the economic impacts of a shrinking student population upon Scotland. In the analysis we use scenarios presented in a recent Universities UK report. This paper is an output of our project entitled The Overall Impact of HEIs on Regional Economies (ESRC, RES-171-25-0032). This project is one of nine that are funded under the joint UK Higher Education Funding Councils and ESRC Initiative on The Impact of HEIs on Regional Economies. (All UK funding councils are involved: Scottish Funding Council, Higher Education Funding Council for England and Wales, and the Department for Employment and Learning Northern Ireland. We also acknowledge supplementary funding from the Centre for Public Policy for Regions (funded by SFC)

The external benefits of higher education

The private market benefits of education are widely studied at the micro level, although the magnitude of their macroeconomic impact is disputed. However, there are additional benefits of education, which are less well understood. In this paper the macroeconomic effects of external benefits of higher education are estimated using the “micro-to-macro” simulation approach. Two types of externalities are explored: technology spillovers and productivity spillovers in the labour market. These links are illustrated and the results suggest they could be very large. However, this is qualified by the dearth of microeconomic evidence, for which we hope to encourage further work

Regional policy spillovers : the national impact of demand-side policy in an interregional model of the UK economy

UK regional policy has been advocated as a means of reducing regional disparities and stimulating national growth. However, there is limited understanding of the interregional and national effects of such a policy. This paper uses an interregional computable general equilibrium model to identify the national impact of a policy-induced regional demand shock under alternative labour market closures. Our simulation results suggest that regional policy operating solely on the demand side has significant national impacts. Furthermore, the effects on the nontarget region are particularly sensitive to the treatment of the regional labour market

The domestic and gendered context for retirement

Against a global backdrop of population and workforce ageing, successive UK governments have encouraged people to work longer and delay retirement. Debates focus mainly on factors affecting individuals’ decisions on when and how to retire. We argue that a fuller understanding of retirement can be achieved by recognizing the ways in which individuals’ expectations and behaviours reflect a complicated, dynamic set of interactions between domestic environments and gender roles, often established over a long time period, and more temporally proximate factors. Using a qualitative data set, we explore how the timing, nature and meaning of retirement and retirement planning are played out in specific domestic contexts. We conclude that future research and policies surrounding retirement need to: focus on the household, not the individual; consider retirement as an often messy and disrupted process and not a discrete event; and understand that retirement may mean very different things for women and for men

The impact of the Barnett formula on the Scottish economy: endogenous population and variable formula proportions

The Barnett formula is the official basis upon which increments to public funds are allocated to the devolved regions of the UK for those parts of the budget that are administered locally. There is considerable controversy surrounding the implications of its strict application for the relevant regions. The existing literature focuses primarily on the equity of the spatial changes to government per capita expenditure that would accompany such a change. In contrast, in this paper we attempt to quantify the system-wide economic consequences-the real, relative resource squeeze that accompanies the financial relative squeeze-on one devolved region, Scotland. The analysis uses a multisectoral regional computable general equilibrium modelling approach. We highlight the importance of population endogeneity, particularly since the population proportions used in the formula are now regularly updated