Evidence of Climate-Induced Range Contractions in Bull Trout \u3ci\u3eSalvelinus confluentus\u3c/i\u3e in a Rocky Mountain Watersehd, U.S.A.

Many freshwater fish species are considered vulnerable to stream temperature warming associated with climate change because they are ectothermic, yet there are surprisingly few studies documenting changes in distributions. Streams and rivers in the U.S. Rocky Mountains have been warming for several decades. At the same time these systems have been experiencing an increase in the severity and frequency of wildfires, which often results in habitat changes including increased water temperatures. We resampled 74 sites across a Rocky Mountain watershed 17 to 20 years after initial samples to determine whether there were trends in bull trout occurrence associated with temperature, wildfire, or other habitat variables. We found that site abandonment probabilities (0.36) were significantly higher than colonization probabilities (0.13), which indicated a reduction in the number of occupied sites. Site abandonment probabilities were greater at low elevations with warm temperatures. Other covariates, such as the presence of wildfire, nonnative brook trout, proximity to areas with many adults, and various stream habitat descriptors, were not associated with changes in probability of occupancy. Higher abandonment probabilities at low elevation for bull trout provide initial evidence validating the predictions made by bioclimatic models that bull trout populations will retreat to higher, cooler thermal refuges as water temperatures increase. The geographic breadth of these declines across the region is unknown but the approach of revisiting historical sites using an occupancy framework provides a useful template for additional assessments

Wildland fire deficit and surplus in the western United States, 1984–2012

Wildland fire is an important disturbance agent in the western US and globally. However, the natural role of fire has been disrupted in many regions due to the influence of human activities, which have the potential to either exclude or promote fire, resulting in a ‘‘fire deficit’’ or ‘‘fire surplus’’, respectively. In this study, we developed a model of expected area burned for the western US as a function of climate from 1984 to 2012.We then quantified departures from expected area burned to identify geographic regions with fire deficit or surplus. We developed our model of area burned as a function of several climatic variables from reference areas with low human influence; the relationship between climate and fire is strong in these areas. We then quantified the degree of fire deficit or surplus for all areas of the western US as the difference between expected (as predicted with the model) and observed area burned from 1984 to 2012. Results indicate that many forested areas in the western US experienced a fire deficit from 1984 to 2012, likely due to fire exclusion by human activities. We also found that large expanses of non-forested regions experienced a fire surplus, presumably due to introduced annual grasses and the prevalence of anthropogenic ignitions. The heterogeneity in patterns of fire deficit and surplus among ecoregions emphasizes fundamentally different ecosystem sensitivities to human influences and suggests that largescale adaptation and mitigation strategies will be necessary in order to restore and maintain resilient, healthy, and naturally functioning ecosystems

Wildland fire deficit and surplus in the western United States, 1984–2012

Wildland fire is an important disturbance agent in the western US and globally. However, the natural role of fire has been disrupted in many regions due to the influence of human activities, which have the potential to either exclude or promote fire, resulting in a ‘‘fire deficit’’ or ‘‘fire surplus’’, respectively. In this study, we developed a model of expected area burned for the western US as a function of climate from 1984 to 2012.We then quantified departures from expected area burned to identify geographic regions with fire deficit or surplus. We developed our model of area burned as a function of several climatic variables from reference areas with low human influence; the relationship between climate and fire is strong in these areas. We then quantified the degree of fire deficit or surplus for all areas of the western US as the difference between expected (as predicted with the model) and observed area burned from 1984 to 2012. Results indicate that many forested areas in the western US experienced a fire deficit from 1984 to 2012, likely due to fire exclusion by human activities. We also found that large expanses of non-forested regions experienced a fire surplus, presumably due to introduced annual grasses and the prevalence of anthropogenic ignitions. The heterogeneity in patterns of fire deficit and surplus among ecoregions emphasizes fundamentally different ecosystem sensitivities to human influences and suggests that largescale adaptation and mitigation strategies will be necessary in order to restore and maintain resilient, healthy, and naturally functioning ecosystems

Wildland fire deficit and surplus in the western United States, 1984-2012

Wildland fire is an important disturbance agent in the western US and globally. However, the natural role of fire has been disrupted in many regions due to the influence of human activities, which have the potential to either exclude or promote fire, resulting in a fire deficit or fire surplus, respectively. In this study, we developed a model of expected area burned for the western US as a function of climate from 1984 to 2012. We then quantified departures from expected area burned to identify geographic regions with fire deficit or surplus. We developed our model of area burned as a function of several climatic variables from reference areas with low human influence; the relationship between climate and fire is strong in these areas. We then quantified the degree of fire deficit or surplus for all areas of the western US as the difference between expected (as predicted with the model) and observed area burned from 1984 to 2012. Results indicate that many forested areas in the western US experienced a fire deficit from 1984 to 2012, likely due to fire exclusion by human activities. We also found that large expanses of non-forested regions experienced a fire surplus, presumably due to introduced annual grasses and the prevalence of anthropogenic ignitions. The heterogeneity in patterns of fire deficit and surplus among ecoregions emphasizes fundamentally different ecosystem sensitivities to human influences and suggests that large scale adaptation and mitigation strategies will be necessary in order to restore and maintain resilient, healthy, and naturally functioning ecosystems

Giving ecological meaning to satellite-derived fire severity metrics across North American forests

Satellite-derived spectral indices such as the relativized burn ratio (RBR) allow fire severity maps to be produced in a relatively straightforward manner across multiple fires and broad spatial extents. These indices often have strong relationships with field-based measurements of fire severity, thereby justifying their widespread use in management and science. However, satellite-derived spectral indices have been criticized because their non-standardized units render them difficult to interpret relative to on-the-ground fire effects. In this study, we built a Random Forest model describing a field-based measure of fire severity, the composite burn index (CBI), as a function of multiple spectral indices, a variable representing spatial variability in climate, and latitude. CBI data primarily representing forested vegetation from 263 fires (8075 plots) across the United States and Canada were used to build the model. Overall, the model performed well, with a cross-validated R2 of 0.72, though there was spatial variability in model performance. The model we produced allows for the direct mapping of CBI, which is more interpretable compared to spectral indices. Moreover, because the model and all spectral explanatory variables were produced in Google Earth Engine, predicting and mapping of CBI can realistically be undertaken on hundreds to thousands of fires. We provide all necessary code to execute the model and produce maps of CBI in Earth Engine. This study and its products will be extremely useful to managers and scientists in North America who wish to map fire effects over large landscapes or regions

Effect of elevation on abandonment probabilities.

<p>Model-averaged abandonment probabilities (filled diamonds) from the top three informative models (<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0098812#pone-0098812-t002" target="_blank">Table 2</a>) with their upper and lower 95% confidence intervals (dashes) versus standardized elevation.</p

Models within two Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) units of the top model for estimating probability of detection of bull trout with probability of occupancy, colonization, and abandonment held constant.

a<p>Variables subscripted with β/SE absolute values; variables with values < 1.4 are regarded as uninformative (Arnold 2010).</p>b<p>Abbreviations: W, width; LW, large wood; S, season; G, gradient.</p>c<p>Only this model lacks uninformative variables.</p

Study area.

<p>Sampling locations (500-m sites that were initially visited in 1992–1995 and resampled in 2009–2011) in the East Fork Bitterroot River watershed. Top panel: patterns in occupancy (yellow, not occupied in either period; blue, occupied in both periods; red, occupied in first but not second period; green, occupied in second but not first period). These reflect observed patterns not corrected for probability of detection. Water and air temperature patterns within the East Fork Bitterroot River basin are inset. Black diamond symbols are average daily summertime (July and August air temperature recorded over the study period at the closest weather station at Sula, MT (<i>y</i>  =  0.1567<i>x</i> – 289.27, <i>R²</i> = 0.34, <i>p</i> = 0.0006). Hollow squares are average daily maximum water temperatures over the summer season (July 15 to September 30) from the East Fork Bitterroot River main stem 28.6 km upstream of the confluence with the West Fork Bitterroot River (<i>y</i>  =  0.1441<i>x</i> – 271.96, <i>r²</i> = 0.22, <i>p</i> = 0.10). Bottom panel: sampling locations shaded to indicate estimates of abandonment probability (white: 0.21–0.32, grey: 0.32–0.47, and black: 0.47–0.62). Burn severity for fires in the watershed is indicated by low severity in green, moderate severity in orange, and high severity in red. Grey is outside of the fire perimeters.</p