Feasibility study for downscaling seasonal tropical cyclone activity using the NCEP regional spectral model

The potential use of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM) for downscaling seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity was analyzed here. The NCEP RSM with horizontal resolution of 50 km, was used to downscale the ECHAM4.5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature (SST) over the western North Pacific. An ensemble of ten runs for June–November 1994 and 1998 was studied. The representation of the TCs is much improved compared to the low-resolution forcing AGCM, but the TCs are not as intense as observed ones, as the RSM horizontal resolution is not sufficiently high. The large-scale fields of the RSM are examined and compared to both the AGCM and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis. The large-scale fields of RSM characteristics are in general similar to those of the reanalysis. Various properties of the TCs in the RSM are also examined such as first positions, tracks, accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and duration. While the RSM does not reproduce the higher number of TCs in 1994 than in 1998, other measures of TC activity (ACE, number of cyclone days) in the RSM are higher in 1994 than in 1998

Robust multi-fidelity design of a micro re-entry unmanned space vehicle

This article addresses the preliminary robust design of a small-scale re-entry unmanned space vehicle by means of a hybrid optimization technique. The approach, developed in this article, closely couples an evolutionary multi-objective algorithm with a direct transcription method for optimal control problems. The evolutionary part handles the shape parameters of the vehicle and the uncertain objective functions, while the direct transcription method generates an optimal control profile for the re-entry trajectory. Uncertainties on the aerodynamic forces and characteristics of the thermal protection material are incorporated into the vehicle model, and a Monte-Carlo sampling procedure is used to compute relevant statistical characteristics of the maximum heat flux and internal temperature. Then, the hybrid algorithm searches for geometries that minimize the mean value of the maximum heat flux, the mean value of the maximum internal temperature, and the weighted sum of their variance: the evolutionary part handles the shape parameters of the vehicle and the uncertain functions, while the direct transcription method generates the optimal control profile for the re-entry trajectory of each individual of the population. During the optimization process, artificial neural networks are utilized to approximate the aerodynamic forces required by the optimal control solver. The artificial neural networks are trained and updated by means of a multi-fidelity approach: initially a low-fidelity analytical model, fitted on a waverider type of vehicle, is used to train the neural networks, and through the evolution a mix of analytical and computational fluid dynamic, high-fidelity computations are used to update it. The data obtained by the high-fidelity model progressively become the main source of updates for the neural networks till, near the end of the optimization process, the influence of the data obtained by the analytical model is practically nullified. On the basis of preliminary results, the adopted technique is able to predict achievable performance of the small spacecraft and the requirements in terms of thermal protection materials

Review of seasonal climate forecasting for agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa

We review the use and value of seasonal climate forecasting for agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with a view to understanding and exploiting opportunities to realize more of its potential benefits. Interaction between the atmosphere and underlying oceans provides the basis for probabilistic forecasts of climate conditions at a seasonal lead-time, including during cropping seasons in parts of SSA. Regional climate outlook forums (RCOF) and national meteorological services (NMS) have been at the forefront of efforts to provide forecast information for agriculture.A survey showed that African NMS often go well beyond the RCOF process to improve seasonal forecast information and disseminate it to the agricultural sector. Evidence from a combination of understanding of how climatic uncertainty impacts agriculture, model based ex-ante analyses, subjective expressions of demand or value, and the few well-documented evaluations of actual use and resulting benefit suggests that seasonal forecasts may have considerable potential to improve agricultural management and rural livelihoods. However, constraints related to legitimacy, salience, access, understanding, capacity to respond and data scarcity have so far limited the widespread use and benefit from seasonal prediction among smallholder farmers. Those constraints that reflect inadequate information products, policies or institutional process can potentially be overcome. Additional opportunities to benefit rural communities come from expanding the use of seasonal forecast information for coordinating input and credit supply, food crisis management, trade and agricultural insurance. The surge of activity surrounding seasonal forecasting in SSA following the 1997/98 El Niño has waned in recent years, but emerging initiatives, such as the Global Framework for Climate Services and ClimDev-Africa, are poised to reinvigorate support for seasonal forecast information services for agriculture. We conclude with a discussion of institutional and policy changes that we believe will greatly enhance the benefits of seasonal forecasting to agriculture in SSA

Minimization of the environmental impact in the chrome tanning process by a closed-loop recycling technology

Content: It is acknowledged that conventional chrome tanning in leather processing discharges significant amounts of chromium, dissolved solids and chlorides. The recycling technology is one of the effective solutions to reduce the environmental impact of chrome tanning waste water at source. In this work, a novel closed recycling technology of chrome tanning wastewater was applied in the tanning process of the goat skins at a pilot scale level. The properties of chrome tanning liquors obtained by the recycling technology and the resultant crust were analyzed. The results show that this close recycling process works well. The contents of Cr2O3, total organic carbon, ammonia nitrogen and chloride ion in the waste water tend to accumulate with the increase of recycling times, and finally reach a balance after 5 times of recycling. The obtained leather sample is full, soft and having a shrinkage temperature comparable to that of conventional chrome tanned leather. SEM images indicate that the resulting leather samples by this recycling technology show fine and clean grain and well-dispersed fibrils. TG and DSC results show that the thermal stability of wet blue leathers tanned by the circular process are similar to those tanned by conventional chrome tanning process. Compared with conventional chrome tanning technology, water, salt and chrome tanning agent are saved in this process, and the zero emission of chrome tanning wastewater is realized. The cleaner production technology exhibits promising application prospect for its economic and environmental benefits. Take-Away: 1. A novel closed recycling technology of chrome tanning wastewater was applied in the tanning process of the goat skins at a pilot scale level. 2. The chrome tanning liquors obtained by the recycling technology and the resultant crust were analyzed. 3. Water, Sodium chloride and chrome tanning agent are saved by the closed recycling technology, and the zero emission of chrome tanning wastewater is realized

ShapeFormer: Transformer-based Shape Completion via Sparse Representation

We present ShapeFormer, a transformer-based network that produces a distribution of object completions, conditioned on incomplete, and possibly noisy, point clouds. The resultant distribution can then be sampled to generate likely completions, each exhibiting plausible shape details while being faithful to the input. To facilitate the use of transformers for 3D, we introduce a compact 3D representation, vector quantized deep implicit function, that utilizes spatial sparsity to represent a close approximation of a 3D shape by a short sequence of discrete variables. Experiments demonstrate that ShapeFormer outperforms prior art for shape completion from ambiguous partial inputs in terms of both completion quality and diversity. We also show that our approach effectively handles a variety of shape types, incomplete patterns, and real-world scans.Comment: Project page: https://shapeformer.github.io

Regional Climate Trends and Scenarios for the U.S. National Climate Assessment Part 4. Climate of the U.S. Great Plains

This document is one of series of regional climate descriptions designed to provide input that can be used in the development of the National Climate Assessment (NCA). As part of a sustained assessment approach, it is intended that these documents will be updated as new and well-vetted model results are available and as new climate scenario needs become clear. It is also hoped that these documents (and associated data and resources) are of direct benefit to decision makers and communities seeking to use this information in developing adaptation plans. There are nine reports in this series, one each for eight regions defined by the NCA, and one for the contiguous U.S. The eight NCA regions are the Northeast, Southeast, Midwest, Great Plains, Northwest, Southwest, Alaska, and Hawai‘i/Pacific Islands. These documents include a description of the observed historical climate conditions for each region and a set of climate scenarios as plausible futures – these components are described in more detail below. While the datasets and simulations in these regional climate documents are not, by themselves, new, (they have been previously published in various sources), these documents represent a more complete and targeted synthesis of historical and plausible future climate conditions around the specific regions of the NCA. There are two components of these descriptions. One component is a description of the historical climate conditions in the region. The other component is a description of the climate conditions associated with two future pathways of greenhouse gas emissions

Development of silicon interposer: towards an ultralow radioactivity background photodetector system

It is of great importance to develop a photodetector system with an ultralow radioactivity background in rare event searches. Silicon photomultipliers (SiPMs) and application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) are two ideal candidates for low background photosensors and readout electronics, respectively, because they are mainly composed of silicon, which can achieve good radio-purity without considerable extra effort. However, interposers, used to provide mechanical support and signal routes between the photosensor and the electronics, are a bottleneck in building ultralow background photodetectors. Silicon and quartz are two candidates to construct the low background interposer because of their good radio-purity; nevertheless, it is non-trivial to produce through silicon vias (TSV) or through quartz vias (TQV) on the large area silicon or quartz wafer. In this work, based on double-sided TSV interconnect technology, we developed the first prototype of a silicon interposer with a size of 10~cm$\times$10~cm and a thickness of 320~$\mu$m. The electrical properties of the interposer are carefully evaluated at room temperature, and its performance is also examined at -110~$^\circ$C with an integrated SiPM on the interposer. The testing results reveal quite promising performance of the prototype, and the single photoelectron signals can be clearly observed from the SiPM. The features of the observed signals are comparable with those from the SiPM mounted on a normal FR4-based PCB. Based on the success of the silicon interposer prototype, we started the follow-up studies that aimed to further improve the performance and yield of the silicon interposer, and eventually to provide a solution for building an ultralow background photodetector system

Photoinduced coupled twisted intramolecular charge transfer and excited-state proton transfer via intermolecular hydrogen bonding: a DFT/TD-DFT study

We discuss theoretically the geometric and electronic structure properties of the thiazolidinedione derivative A and its hydrogen-bonded complex in dimethylformamide (DMF) solution in the S0 and S1 states. To gain insight into the photoinduced coupled excited-state proton transfer (ESPT) and twisted intramolecular charge transfer (TICT) associated with intermolecular hydrogen bonding, the potential energy profiles are provided along the Osingle bondH bond and the twisted angle. It is predicted that TICT in S1 can facilitate ESPT initiated by intermolecular hydrogen-bond strengthening in the S1 state. The coupling of ESPT and TICT is energetically preferable