Emergence of Complex Dynamics in a Simple Model of Signaling Networks

A variety of physical, social and biological systems generate complex fluctuations with correlations across multiple time scales. In physiologic systems, these long-range correlations are altered with disease and aging. Such correlated fluctuations in living systems have been attributed to the interaction of multiple control systems; however, the mechanisms underlying this behavior remain unknown. Here, we show that a number of distinct classes of dynamical behaviors, including correlated fluctuations characterized by $1/f$-scaling of their power spectra, can emerge in networks of simple signaling units. We find that under general conditions, complex dynamics can be generated by systems fulfilling two requirements: i) a ``small-world'' topology and ii) the presence of noise. Our findings support two notable conclusions: first, complex physiologic-like signals can be modeled with a minimal set of components; and second, systems fulfilling conditions (i) and (ii) are robust to some degree of degradation, i.e., they will still be able to generate $1/f$-dynamics

The effect of signal acquisition and processing choices on ApEn values: Towards a “gold standard” for distinguishing effort levels from isometric force records

Approximate Entropy (ApEn) is frequently used to identify changes in the complexity of isometric force records with ageing and disease. Different signal acquisition and processing parameters have been used, making comparison or confirmation of results difficult. This study determined the effect of sampling and parameter choices by examining changes in ApEn values across a range of submaximal isometric contractions of the First Dorsal Interosseus. Reducing the sample rate by decimation changed both the value and pattern of ApEn values dramatically. The pattern of ApEn values across the range of effort levels was not sensitive to the filter cut-off frequency, or the criterion used to extract the section of data for analysis. The complexity increased with increasing effort levels using a fixed ‘r’ value (which accounts for measurement noise) but decreased with increasing effort level when ‘r’ was set to 0.1 of the standard deviation of force. It is recommended isometric force records are sampled at frequencies >200 Hz, template length (‘m’) is set to 2, and 'r' set to measurement system noise or 0.1 SD depending on physiological process to be distinguished. It is demonstrated that changes in ApEn across effort levels are related to changes in force gradation strategy

Causes and patterns of readmissions in patients with common comorbidities: retrospective cohort study

Objective To evaluate the primary diagnoses and patterns of 30 day readmissions and potentially avoidable readmissions in medical patients with each of the most common comorbidities. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: Academic tertiary medical centre in Boston, 2009-10. Participants: 10 731 consecutive adult discharges from a medical department. Main outcome measures Primary readmission diagnoses of readmissions within 30 days of discharge and potentially avoidable 30 day readmissions to the index hospital or two other hospitals in its network. Results: Among 10 731 discharges, 2398 (22.3%) were followed by a 30 day readmission, of which 858 (8.0%) were identified as potentially avoidable. Overall, infection, neoplasm, heart failure, gastrointestinal disorder, and liver disorder were the most frequent primary diagnoses of potentially avoidable readmissions. Almost all of the top five diagnoses of potentially avoidable readmissions for each comorbidity were possible direct or indirect complications of that comorbidity. In patients with a comorbidity of heart failure, diabetes, ischemic heart disease, atrial fibrillation, or chronic kidney disease, the most common diagnosis of potentially avoidable readmission was acute heart failure. Patients with neoplasm, heart failure, and chronic kidney disease had a higher risk of potentially avoidable readmissions than did those without those comorbidities. Conclusions: The five most common primary diagnoses of potentially avoidable readmissions were usually possible complications of an underlying comorbidity. Post-discharge care should focus attention not just on the primary index admission diagnosis but also on the comorbidities patients have

Sex differences in circumstances and consequences of outdoor and indoor falls in older adults in the MOBILIZE Boston cohort study

Background: Despite extensive research on risk factors associated with falling in older adults, and current fall prevention interventions focusing on modifiable risk factors, there is a lack of detailed accounts of sex differences in risk factors, circumstances and consequences of falls in the literature. We examined the circumstances, consequences and resulting injuries of indoor and outdoor falls according to sex in a population study of older adults. Methods: Men and women 65 years and older (N = 743) were followed for fall events from the Maintenance of Balance, Independent Living, Intellect, and Zest in the Elderly (MOBILIZE) Boston prospective cohort study. Baseline measurements were collected by comprehensive clinical assessments, home visits and questionnaires. During the follow-up (median = 2.9 years), participants recorded daily fall occurrences on a monthly calendar, and fall circumstances were determined by a telephone interview. Falls were categorized by activity and place of falling. Circumstance-specific annualized fall rates were calculated and compared between men and women using negative binomial regression models. Results: Women had lower rates of outdoor falls overall (Crude Rate Ratio (RR): 0.72, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.56-0.92), in locations of recreation (RR: 0.34, 95% CI: 0.17-0.70), during vigorous activity (RR: 0.38, 95% CI: 0.18-0.81) and on snowy or icy surfaces (RR: 0.55, 95% CI: 0.36-0.86) compared to men. Women and men did not differ significantly in their rates of falls outdoors on sidewalks, streets, and curbs, and during walking. Compared to men, women had greater fall rates in the kitchen (RR: 1.88, 95% CI: 1.04-3.40) and while performing household activities (RR: 3.68, 95% CI: 1.50-8.98). The injurious outdoor fall rates were equivalent in both sexes. Women’s overall rate of injurious indoor falls was nearly twice that of men’s (RR: 1.98, 95% CI: 1.44-2.72), especially in the kitchen (RR: 6.83, 95% CI: 2.05-22.79), their own home (RR: 1.84, 95% CI: 1.30-2.59) and another residential home (RR: 4.65, 95% CI: 1.05-20.66) or other buildings (RR: 2.29, 95% CI: 1.18-4.44). Conclusions: Significant sex differences exist in the circumstances and injury potential when older adults fall indoors and outdoors, highlighting a need for focused prevention strategies for men and women

Mortality and Readmission After Cervical Fracture from a Fall in Older Adults: Comparison with Hip Fracture Using National Medicare Data

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/115960/1/jgs13670.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/115960/2/jgs13670_am.pd

Fall Risk is Not Black and White

Objective: To determine whether previously reported racial differences in fall rates between White and Black/African American is explained by differences in health status and neighborhood characteristics. Design: Prospective cohort Setting: Community Participants: The study included 550 White and 116 Black older adults in the Greater Boston area (mean age: 78 years; 36% men) who were English-speaking, able to walk across a room, and without severe cognitive impairment. Measurements: Falls were prospectively reported using monthly fall calendars. The location of each fall and fall-related injuries were asked during telephone interviews. At baseline, we assessed risk factors for falls, including sociodemographic characteristics, physiologic risk factors, physical activity, and community-level characteristics. Results: Over the mean follow-up of 1,048 days, 1,539 falls occurred (incidence: 806/1,000 person-years). Whites were more likely than Blacks to experience any falls (867 versus 504 falls per 1,000 person-years; RR [95% CI]: 1.77 [1.33, 2.36]), outdoor falls (418 versus 178 falls per 1,000 person-years; 1.78 [1.08, 2.92]), indoor falls (434 versus 320 falls per 1,000 person-years; 1.44 [1.02, 2.05]), and injurious falls (367 versus 205 falls per 1,000 person-years; 1.79 [1.30, 2.46]). With exception of injurious falls, higher fall rates in Whites than Blacks were substantially attenuated with adjustment for risk factors and community-level characteristics: any fall (1.24 [0.81, 1.89]), outdoor fall (1.57 [0.86, 2.88]), indoor fall (1.08 [0.64, 1.81]), and injurious fall (1.77 [1.14, 2.74]). Conclusion: Our findings suggest that the racial differences in fall rates may be largely due to confounding by individual-level and community-level characteristics

Geographic Variation Within the Military Health System

Background: This study seeks to quantify variation in healthcare utilization and per capita costs using system-defined geographic regions based on enrollee residence within the Military Health System (MHS). Methods: Data for fiscal years 2007 – 2010 were obtained from the Military Health System under a data sharing agreement with the Defense Health Agency (DHA). DHA manages all aspects of the Department of Defense Military Health System, including TRICARE. Adjusted rates were calculated for per capita costs and for two procedures with high interest to the MHS- back surgery and Cesarean sections for TRICARE Prime and Plus enrollees. Coefficients of variation (CoV) and interquartile ranges (IQR) were calculated and analyzed using residence catchment area as the geographic unit. Catchment areas anchored by a Military Treatment Facility (MTF) were compared to catchment areas not anchored by a MTF. Results: Variation, as measured by CoV, was 0.37 for back surgery and 0.13 for C-sections in FY 2010- comparable to rates documented in other healthcare systems. The 2010 CoV (and average cost) for per capita costs was 0.26 ($3,479.51). Procedure rates were generally lower and CoVs higher in regions anchored by a MTF compared with regions not anchored by a MTF, based on both system-wide comparisons and comparisons of neighboring areas. Conclusions: In spite of its centrally managed system and relatively healthy beneficiaries with very robust health benefits, the MHS is not immune to unexplained variation in utilization and cost of healthcare

Comparison of techniques for handling missing covariate data within prognostic modelling studies: a simulation study

Background: There is no consensus on the most appropriate approach to handle missing covariate data within prognostic modelling studies. Therefore a simulation study was performed to assess the effects of different missing data techniques on the performance of a prognostic model. Methods: Datasets were generated to resemble the skewed distributions seen in a motivating breast cancer example. Multivariate missing data were imposed on four covariates using four different mechanisms; missing completely at random (MCAR), missing at random (MAR), missing not at random (MNAR) and a combination of all three mechanisms. Five amounts of incomplete cases from 5% to 75% were considered. Complete case analysis (CC), single imputation (SI) and five multiple imputation (MI) techniques available within the R statistical software were investigated: a) data augmentation (DA) approach assuming a multivariate normal distribution, b) DA assuming a general location model, c) regression switching imputation, d) regression switching with predictive mean matching (MICE-PMM) and e) flexible additive imputation models. A Cox proportional hazards model was fitted and appropriate estimates for the regression coefficients and model performance measures were obtained. Results: Performing a CC analysis produced unbiased regression estimates, but inflated standard errors, which affected the significance of the covariates in the model with 25% or more missingness. Using SI, underestimated the variability; resulting in poor coverage even with 10% missingness. Of the MI approaches, applying MICE-PMM produced, in general, the least biased estimates and better coverage for the incomplete covariates and better model performance for all mechanisms. However, this MI approach still produced biased regression coefficient estimates for the incomplete skewed continuous covariates when 50% or more cases had missing data imposed with a MCAR, MAR or combined mechanism. When the missingness depended on the incomplete covariates, i.e. MNAR, estimates were biased with more than 10% incomplete cases for all MI approaches. Conclusion: The results from this simulation study suggest that performing MICE-PMM may be the preferred MI approach provided that less than 50% of the cases have missing data and the missing data are not MNAR