Gas-dynamic shock heating of post-flare loops due to retraction following localized, impulsive reconnection

We present a novel model in which shortening of a magnetic flux tube following localized, three-dimensional reconnection generates strong gas-dynamic shocks around its apex. The shortening releases magnetic energy by progressing away from the reconnection site at the Alfven speed. This launches inward flows along the field lines whose collision creates a pair of gas-dynamic shocks. The shocks raise both the mass density and temperature inside the newly shortened flux tube. Reconnecting field lines whose initial directions differ by more that 100 degrees can produce a concentrated knot of plasma hotter that 20 MK, consistent with observations. In spite of these high temperatures, the shocks convert less than 10% of the liberated magnetic energy into heat - the rest remains as kinetic energy of bulk motion. These gas-dynamic shocks arise only when the reconnection is impulsive and localized in all three dimensions; they are distinct from the slow magnetosonic shocks of the Petschek steady-state reconnection model

Efficient Estimation of a Multivariate Multiplicative Volatility Model

We propose a multivariate generalization of the multiplicative volatility model ofEngle and Rangel (2008), which has a nonparametric long run component and aunit multivariate GARCH short run dynamic component. We suggest variouskernel-based estimation procedures for the parametric and nonparametriccomponents, and derive the asymptotic properties thereof. For the parametric partof the model, we obtain the semiparametric efficiency bound. Our method isapplied to a bivariate stock index series. We find that the univariate model of Engleand Rangel (2008) appears to be violated in the data whereas our multivariatemodel is more consistent with the data.GARCH, Kernel Estimation, Local Stationarity,Semiparametric

Estimation of tail thickness parameters from GJR-GARCH models

We propose a method of estimating the Pareto tail thickness parameter of the unconditional distribution of a financial time series by exploiting the implications of a GJR-GARCH volatility model. The method is based on some recent work on the extremes of GARCH-type processes and extends the method proposed by Berkes, Horváth and Kokoszka (2003). We show that the estimator of tail thickness is consistent and converges at rate ?T to a normal distribution (where T is the sample size), provided the model for conditional variance is correctly specified as a GJR-GARCH. This is much faster than the convergence rate of the Hill estimator, since that procedure only uses a vanishing fraction of the sample. We also develop new specification tests based on this method and propose new alternative estimates of unconditional value at risk. We show in Monte Carlo simulations the advantages of our procedure in finite samples; and finally an application concludes the paperPareto tail thickness parameter, GARCH-type models, Value-at-Risk, Extreme value theory, Heavy tails

Reconnection of a kinking flux rope triggering the ejection of a microwave and hard X-ray source. II. Numerical Modeling

Numerical simulations of the helical ($m\!=\!1$) kink instability of an arched, line-tied flux rope demonstrate that the helical deformation enforces reconnection between the legs of the rope if modes with two helical turns are dominant as a result of high initial twist in the range $\Phi\gtrsim6\pi$. Such reconnection is complex, involving also the ambient field. In addition to breaking up the original rope, it can form a new, low-lying, less twisted flux rope. The new flux rope is pushed downward by the reconnection outflow, which typically forces it to break as well by reconnecting with the ambient field. The top part of the original rope, largely rooted in the sources of the ambient flux after the break-up, can fully erupt or be halted at low heights, producing a "failed eruption." The helical current sheet associated with the instability is squeezed between the approaching legs, temporarily forming a double current sheet. The leg-leg reconnection proceeds at a high rate, producing sufficiently strong electric fields that it would be able to accelerate particles. It may also form plasmoids, or plasmoid-like structures, which trap energetic particles and propagate out of the reconnection region up to the top of the erupting flux rope along the helical current sheet. The kinking of a highly twisted flux rope involving leg-leg reconnection can explain key features of an eruptive but partially occulted solar flare on 18 April 2001, which ejected a relatively compact hard X-ray and microwave source and was associated with a fast coronal mass ejection.Comment: Solar Physics, in pres

On Flux Rope Stability and Atmospheric Stratification in Models of Coronal Mass Ejections Triggered by Flux Emergence

Flux emergence is widely recognized to play an important role in the initiation of coronal mass ejections. The Chen-Shibata (2000) model, which addresses the connection between emerging flux and flux rope eruptions, can be implemented numerically to study how emerging flux through the photosphere can impact the eruption of a pre-existing coronal flux rope. The model's sensitivity to the initial conditions and reconnection micro-physics is investigated with a parameter study. In particular, we aim to understand the stability of the coronal flux rope in the context of X-point collapse and the effects of boundary driving in both unstratified and stratified atmospheres. In the absence of driving, we assess the behavior of waves in the vicinity of the X-point. With boundary driving applied, we study the effects of reconnection micro-physics and atmospheric stratification on the eruption. We find that the Chen-Shibata equilibrium can be unstable to an X-point collapse even in the absence of driving due to wave accumulation at the X-point. However, the equilibrium can be stabilized by reducing the compressibility of the plasma, which allows small-amplitude waves to pass through the X-point without accumulation. Simulations with the photospheric boundary driving evaluate the impact of reconnection micro-physics and atmospheric stratification on the resulting dynamics: we show the evolution of the system to be determined primarily by the structure of the global magnetic fields with little sensitivity to the micro-physics of magnetic reconnection; and in a stratified atmosphere, we identify a novel mechanism for producing quasi-periodic behavior at the reconnection site behind a rising flux rope as a possible explanation of similar phenomena observed in solar and stellar flares.Comment: Submitted Feb 28, 2014 to, accepted Aug 14, 2014 by Astronomy & Astrophysics. 13 pages, 10 figures, 2 table

ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF AN ALTERNATIVE MARKETING SYSTEM FOR FEEDER CATTLE IN ALABAMA

Marketing,

The Estimation of Conditional Densities

We discuss a number of issues in the smoothed nonparametric estimation of kernel conditional probability density functions for stationary processes. The kernel conditional density estimate is a ratio of joint and marginal density estimates. We point out the different implications of leading choices of bandwidths in numerator and denominator for the ability of the estimate to integrate to one and to have finite moments. Again bearing in mind different bandwidth possibilities, we discuss asymptotic theory for the estimate: asymptotic bias and variance are calculated under various conditions, an extended discussion of bandwidth choice is included, and a central limit theorem is given.Conditional density estimation, serial dependence, bandwidth choice.

A contribution to the discussion on the safety of air weapons

Firearms legislation in the UK stems from the Firearms Act 1968 with its definition of a firearm as a lethal barrelled weapon of any description. The Act allows certain exceptions to be held without licence, most notably air weapons although these are limited by The Firearms (Dangerous Air Weapons) Rules 1969 and related regulations to below 12 ft lb (16.3 J) for air rifles and below 6 ft lb (8.1 J) for air pistols. Despite this there are occasional fatalities, typically 1 or 2 each year in the UK, from legally owned air weapons. In the USA there are over 20,000 visits each year to emergency departments due to injuries from air weapons and paintball guns. Despite this, limited research appears to have been carried out into the safety of air weapons and the present study tries to address this.Fresh samples of animal tissue were obtained from an abattoir or butcher and were embedded in ballistic gelatin. Pig heart, lung, liver and shoulder were used. By firing pellets into gelatin alone and into the combination of the gelatin and animal tissue it was possible to compare gelatin as a model for these tissues. The depth of penetration was similar but the residual track appeared to remain more open in the animal tissue. Pellets penetrated completely through the organ, with total penetration of gelatin and organ being typically around 10–15 cm.Samples of pig, cow and chicken skin were placed in contact with the gelatin or embedded in the gelatin to simulate the effect of skin on penetration into a body. Chicken skin had no effect, pig skin stopped the pellet and cow skin was perforated by the pellet. If cow skin was embedded in the gelatin there was little effect on the total amount of penetration, but cow skin on the front surface of the gelatin reduced penetration by about 30%.Computed tomography was used to examine the pellet track and to calculate the volume of damage produced. However, due to the similar densities of gelatin and organ a technique had to be developed to differentiate phases. A barium salt paste was applied to outer surfaces and iodine solution or barium nitrate solution containing red food colouring was injected into the pellet track to enhance the contrast of the track. The track through the gelatin tended to enclose itself whereas the track through the organ remained more open, presumably due to the inhomogeneity of the fibrous nature of the tissue.Pellets were also fired at construction materials (wood, plasterboard and brick) and computed tomography used to determine the volume of damage created. Pellets perforated single layers of wood and plasterboard and would embed in a second layer. However, if the two layers were in contact the pellet did not penetrate the first layer. An air rifle pellet could therefore perforate house construction materials, although the resultant kinetic energy would be low and further damage would be limited.Some of the possible physical parameters are discussed that might help predict the degree of damage caused, but from this study it is not possible to define a limit which could be proposed as safe

Passive Optical Sample Assembly (POSA)

A Passive Optical Sample Assembly (POSA) unit was mounted and flown in the cargo bay of the space shuttle Columbia during the first Orbital Flight Test (OFT-1). A similar unit was mounted in a different location in the cargo bay during the postflight operations. The samples in both POSA arrays were subjected to a series of optical and analytical measurements prior to delivery for installation in the cargo bay and after retrieval of the flight hardware. The final results of a comparison of the two series of measurements are presented. These STS-1 results are based on data obtained from only a portion of one of the ten Induced Environment Contamination Monitor instruments to be flown on several shuttle flights beginning with STS-2. These limited results do not indicate shuttle contamination levels in excess of those anticipated