Forecasting Spikes in Electricity Prices

In many electricity markets, retailers purchase electricity at an unregulated spot price and sell to consumers at a heavily regulated price. Consequently the occurrence of extreme movements in the spot price represents a major source of risk to retailers and the accurate forecasting of these extreme events or price spikes is an important aspect of effective risk management. Traditional approaches to modeling electricity prices are aimed primarily at predicting the trajectory of spot prices. By contrast, this paper focuses exclusively on the prediction of spikes in electricity prices. The time series of price spikes is treated as a realization of a discrete-time point process and a nonlinear variant of the autoregressive conditional hazard (ACH) model is used to model this process. The model is estimated using half-hourly data from the Australian electricity market for the sample period 1 March 2001 to 30 June 2007. The estimated model is then used to provide one-step-ahead forecasts of the probability of an extreme event for every half hour for the forecast period, 1 July 2007 to 30 September 2007, chosen to correspond to the duration of a typical forward contract. The forecasting performance of the model is then evaluated against a benchmark that is consistent with the assumptions of commonly-used electricity pricing models.Electricity Prices, Price Spikes, Autoregressive Conditional Duration, Autoregressive

Incidence and trends in workplace violence within emergency departments in the United Kingdom 2017–2022: an observational time series analysis

BackgroundWorkplace violence (WPV) is a notable issue facing healthcare services and workers globally. WPV impacts upon the well-being of staff and can put healthcare provision at risk with detrimental effects on patient care. This study aims to investigate and quantify, at national and regional levels, the incidence and trends of WPV within emergency departments (EDs).MethodsWe requested data relating to WPV from all 152 trusts with an ED in the United Kingdom from January 2017–March 2022. We applied interrupted time series and trend analysis to check for significant differences in WPV across the COVID-19 pandemic.ResultsWe conducted time series analysis on 58 million attendances and detected statistically significant increases in WPV in March 2020–5.06/100,000 attendances (95% CI 1.59/100,000–8.53/100,000 p < 0.01) and May 2020–20.63/100,000 attendances (95% CI 9.39–31.87 p < 0.01). Rises in incidents of 0.37/100,000 attendances per month (95% CI 0.21–0.53 p < 0.0001) were found January 2017–March 2020. We analyzed 96 million attendances for yearly trends, which revealed statistically significant increasing trends of WPV in London and North-West England (p < 0.05), and physical WPV in the North West England (p < 0.05).ConclusionThere have been dramatic increases in incidents of WPV in United Kingdom EDs over the last 5 years with concerning rises during the COVID-19 period. Our findings highlight the potential to further demoralize a workforce already under significant strain, resulting in increased absences for physical or mental health and an exodus of staff. Therefore, trusts should ensure there are robust systems in place to protect and safeguard staff

The role of skills: from worklessness to sustainable employment with progression : UK Commission for Employment and Skills Evidence Report no. 38

This study is shaped by the recognition that while there has been a great deal of policy development around the transition from unemployment and inactivity to employment over the last decade, policy can still be informed about how best to nurture sustainable employment for those at risk of labour market exclusion. There remain challenges associated with, for example, the cost-effectiveness of intervention, the „low pay no pay‟ cycle and access to training. As a consequence, the opportunities for sustainable progression, upward social mobility and alleviating poverty remain unrealised for many workers in lower paid occupations. The methodology underpinning this study is predominantly based on a literature search and review of the research and evidence base post 2005. This is supplemented with the development of four international case studies (Australia, Denmark, Germany, United States contained in a separate annex) and an e-consultation with country experts

The role of skills from worklessness to sustainable employment with progression

This study is shaped by the recognition that while there has been a great deal of policy development around the transition from unemployment and inactivity to employment over the last decade, policy has not been sufficiently informed about how best to nurture sustainable employment for those at risk of labour market exclusion. The review focused on evidence from 2005: it provides a review of data, UK and international literature and, incorporates findings from four international case studies ( Australia, Germany, Denmark and the United States. The report provides an overview of the economic context for low pay and low skilled work and highlights the need for a continuing commitment to promoting opportunities in the labour market as a means of progression and alleviating poverty and encouraging social mobility. The report argues that there is an inextricable link between skills and ‘better jobs’. The authors conclude that a long-term view is required to decide how best to support someone at the point of worklessness: to address employability barriers in the short-term; and prepare the individual to retain, and progress in, employment. The concept of career is explored as a framework for progression: a combination of career guidance, a career / personal development plan and career management skills are identified as tools to raise aspiration and enable individual’s to take action once they are in work to support their own progression. Thinking about the workplace, the report reviews the evidence on the role of job design, line management and progression pathways in facilitating workplace learning as a route to progression

Adrift In Auditing Class

In 2011, Arum and Roksa challenged the higher education community to examine its practices and improve its performance in Academically Adrift. While recognizing the near universal accessibility achieved by American colleges and universities, the study suggested that students are not learning as well as they should. They measured academic rigor by considering the amount of reading and writing required of students and questioned whether courses are appropriately rigorous. Considering auditing as the accounting course most likely to require writing as well as reading, this study explored the auditing course for the condition of “academic rigor” as defined in the challenge

An Accounting Writing Proficiency Survey

  Although there has been much discussion about improving college student writing with college-level courses, little is known about how accounting programs, in particular, are addressing the writing proficiency challenge. This study surveys the 852 accounting programs in the United States to identify the frequency and types of accounting writing courses currently offered. Results indicate that few schools require an accounting-specific writing course or require students to pass any kind of writing proficiency test as juniors or seniors. Most programs do, however, require students to demonstrate English composition skills within several of the upper division accounting courses. Most department chairs do not believe that the graduates of their programs write well enough. 

On Developing The Writing Skills Course For Accounting Students

The CSU, Stanislaus, accounting program is providing a new course that meets the university-wide upper-division writing requirement and offers accounting students additional professional study. While a writing skills course is not unusual in a business program, few offer an alternative centered on the accounting body of knowledge. Undergraduate students’ research questions are usually not addressed before graduate study and reinforce skills learned in their regular accounting courses. Initial reactions from students have ranged from appreciation for additional time spent on accounting topics to disappointment at missing out on the "general business" writing course. Continual reassessment of the course is planned