A Unified Approach to Attractor Reconstruction

In the analysis of complex, nonlinear time series, scientists in a variety of disciplines have relied on a time delayed embedding of their data, i.e. attractor reconstruction. The process has focused primarily on heuristic and empirical arguments for selection of the key embedding parameters, delay and embedding dimension. This approach has left several long-standing, but common problems unresolved in which the standard approaches produce inferior results or give no guidance at all. We view the current reconstruction process as unnecessarily broken into separate problems. We propose an alternative approach that views the problem of choosing all embedding parameters as being one and the same problem addressable using a single statistical test formulated directly from the reconstruction theorems. This allows for varying time delays appropriate to the data and simultaneously helps decide on embedding dimension. A second new statistic, undersampling, acts as a check against overly long time delays and overly large embedding dimension. Our approach is more flexible than those currently used, but is more directly connected with the mathematical requirements of embedding. In addition, the statistics developed guide the user by allowing optimization and warning when embedding parameters are chosen beyond what the data can support. We demonstrate our approach on uni- and multivariate data, data possessing multiple time scales, and chaotic data. This unified approach resolves all the main issues in attractor reconstruction.Comment: 22 pages, revised version as submitted to CHAOS. Manuscript is currently under review. 4 Figures, 31 reference

Regulação e reconhecimento de emoções e estratégias de coping : num estudo comparativo entre adolescentes acolhidos e não acolhidos

A regulação emocional (RE), o reconhecimento emocional facial (REF) e as estratégias de coping são processos fundamentais para o desenvolvimento integral dos indivíduos e mais particularmente dos adolescentes. A literatura refere que tanto a RE como a REF são influenciados pelas vivências e experiências de cada indivíduo e, consequentemente crianças e/ou adolescentes em situação de acolhimento institucional parecem apresentar uma baixa capacidade de RE e de REF. A literatura salienta também uma relação entre coping e RE mas desconhecem-se estudos que analisem o papel moderador do acolhimento nessa relação. Desta forma foi conduzido um estudo com jovens acolhidos (N = 20) e não acolhidos (N = 20) para analisar esse efeito moderador, por um lado, e, por outro, o papel do acolhimento na RE, no REF e valência das respectivas emoções e nas estratégias de coping. Em termos gerais, foram apenas encontradas diferenças estatisticamente significativas no REF, sendo que são os jovens acolhidos que reconhecem melhor emoções, sobretudo negativas, e as percepcionam como mais negativas do que os jovens não acolhidos. É para os jovens em situação de acolhimento que as estratégias de coping do tipo ativo e de acting out se relacionam com as dimensões não aceitação, dificuldade no controlo de impulsos e falta de clareza, respectivamente. O coping do tipo distracção cognitivo-comportamental relaciona-se com a dimensão falta de objetivos, apenas para os jovens não acolhidos.The emotional regulation (ER), the facial emotional recognition (FER) and the coping strategies are fundamental trials for the integral development of the individuals more particularly on adolescents. The literature refers that both ER and FER are influenced by the life experiences and own individual experiences and, consequently infants and/or adolescents placed on residential care seem to present a decrease capacity of ER and of FER. The literature highlights also a relation between coping and ER but less is well-known about the moderating role of the residential care in that relation. Thus, was drawn up a study with youths in residential care (N = 20) and who were not in residential care (N = 20) with purpose of study the moderating effect as well as the role of residential care on the ER, on the FER and valence of the respective emotions and in the coping strategies. On general, we found statistically significant differences in the FER for the youths in residential care revealing that they recognize better emotions, especially negative, and perceive them as more negative than the youths who were not on residential care. It is for the youths in residential care that both active and acting out coping strategies are related with not acceptance dimensions, impulses self-control difficulty and lack of clarity, respectively. The cognitive-behavioral distraction coping relates-itself with the dimension lack of objectives only just for the youths who were not in residential care

Simulação de condições atmosféricas no aeroporto das Lajes

Mestrado em Meteorologia e Oceanografia FísicaEste trabalho visa simular condições atmosféricas desfavoráveis para a aviação no aeroporto das Lajes, em particular para o dia 20 de Novembro de 2009. Neste dia, um airbus A310 da Sata esteve na iminência de se despenhar no momento da aterragem. Assim, simulou-se um período de 24 horas compreendido entre as 00UTC do dia 20 e as 00UTC do dia 21 de Novembro de 2009. Na realização das simulações utilizou-se o modelo WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting), o qual foi configurado com 3 domínios, estando o domínio principal centrado no aeroporto civil das Lajes e os outros 2 aninhados no primeiro. Ao longo deste trabalho foram estudadas 3 possíveis causas que puseram em perigo o airbus A310 da Sata: formação de ondas de montanha, formação de thunderstorms e formação de windshear. Para tal foram utilizadas as saídas do modelo WRF, analisadas em GrADS e a parametrização de rajadas convectivas propostas por Bechtold e Bidlot, (2009). Assim, verificou-se que existiam condições favoráveis para a formação de thunderstorms, o que realmente foi corroborado com as informações meteorológicas emitidas pelo observador meteorológico do aeroporto das Lajes. Portanto, uma das possíveis causas poderá estar relacionada com a formação de um microburst decorrente da situação convectiva verificada, que ao atingir o solo poderá ter provocado uma frente de rajada. Foi, também, verificado que existiam condições favoráveis à formação de ondas de montanha, que podem, também, ter estado na origem do incidente. Quanto ao wind shear, este foi classificado como leve, no entanto, não se poderá descartar esta hipótese totalmente, caso ele estivesse associado a rotores ou frentes de rajada.This project aims to simulate adverse weather conditions that might have harmed civil aviation at Lajes airport on November the 20th 2009. On this particular day, one Sata’s Airbus A310 almost crashed during landing. Therefore, it was simulated a period of 24 hours between 00UTC of November the 20th and 00UTC of November the 21st. In order to do so, it was used the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model which was configured with three domains – the main domain centered on civil Lajes airport and the other two nested in the first. During this work, three feasible causes were considered: mountain waves, thunderstorms and wind shear. For that the WRF output in GrADS was analyzed, and the parameterization of convective gusts proposed by Bechtold and Biblot (2009) was implemented to evaluate strong instantaneous winds. After analyzing all the data, one concluded that there were favorable conditions for thunderstorms, situation that was later on confirmed by the weather information transmitted by the weather observer at Lajes airport. Furthermore, another probable cause for that dangerous situation is associated with a microburst caused by the convective situation mentioned above, which might have caused a gust front when it reached the ground. In addition, according to the weather conditions verified, it is possible that mountain waves occurred on that day. Finally, despite having been considered tenuous, the wind shear might also have caused the situation, especially if associated with rotors or gust fronts

Evaluation of sliding baseline methods for spatial estimation for cluster detection in the biosurveillance system

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) BioSense system provides near-real time situational awareness for public health monitoring through analysis of electronic health data. Determination of anomalous spatial and temporal disease clusters is a crucial part of the daily disease monitoring task. Our study focused on finding useful anomalies at manageable alert rates according to available BioSense data history.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study dataset included more than 3 years of daily counts of military outpatient clinic visits for respiratory and rash syndrome groupings. We applied four spatial estimation methods in implementations of space-time scan statistics cross-checked in Matlab and C. We compared the utility of these methods according to the resultant background cluster rate (a false alarm surrogate) and sensitivity to injected cluster signals. The comparison runs used a spatial resolution based on the facility zip code in the patient record and a finer resolution based on the residence zip code.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Simple estimation methods that account for day-of-week (DOW) data patterns yielded a clear advantage both in background cluster rate and in signal sensitivity. A 28-day baseline gave the most robust results for this estimation; the preferred baseline is long enough to remove daily fluctuations but short enough to reflect recent disease trends and data representation. Background cluster rates were lower for the rash syndrome counts than for the respiratory counts, likely because of seasonality and the large scale of the respiratory counts.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The spatial estimation method should be chosen according to characteristics of the selected data streams. In this dataset with strong day-of-week effects, the overall best detection performance was achieved using subregion averages over a 28-day baseline stratified by weekday or weekend/holiday behavior. Changing the estimation method for particular scenarios involving different spatial resolution or other syndromes can yield further improvement.</p

'The dynamic nature of being a person': An ethnographic study of people living with dementia in their communities

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: A dementia diagnosis can impact on social interactions. This study aims to understand how people living with dementia act as social beings within everyday interactions in their local communities. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Focused ethnography informed by Spradley's approach to data collection and analysis. Observations in community spaces. RESULTS: Twenty-nine observations were undertaken in everyday social settings with 11 people with dementia who were part of a longitudinal interview study. Data consisted of 40 hours of observation, and researcher fieldnotes. The overarching theme 'The dynamic nature of being a person' encapsulates participants' exhibited experiences in negotiating to attain and sustain an acknowledged place in their communities. Two sub-themes characterized contexts and actions: 1 'Being me - not dementia': participants constructed narratives to assert their ontological presence in social settings. They and others used strategies to mediate cognitive changes evidencing dementia. 2 'Resisting or acquiescing to 'being absent in place'': Participants were often able to resist being absent to the gaze of others, but some social structures and behaviors led to a person being 'in place', yet not having their presence confirmed. DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS: People living with dementia can actively draw on personal attributes, familiar rituals, objects, and social roles to continue to present themselves as social beings. Identifying how post-diagnosis people may self-manage cognitive changes to retain their presence as a person can help health and social care practitioners and families collaborate with the person living with dementia enabling them to have a continued social presence

Promoting independence in dementia: protocol for a feasibility trial of the PRIDE intervention for living well with dementia

Background: Dementia can lead to social exclusion, loss of identity and independence, due to deterioration in cognition and activities of daily living. The aim of the study is to investigate the feasibility of the Promoting Independence in Dementia (PRIDE) intervention, designed to facilitate independence in people with mild dementia. Methods and Results: This is a mixed-methods feasibility trial of the PRIDE, in preparation for a future randomised controlled trial. Up to 50 people with dementia will be recruited. Dementia advisors will deliver the three session intervention. Quantitative outcomes will be taken at baseline and up to three months post baseline. Fidelity checklists will assess fidelity to the intervention. Qualitative implementation data will be gathered in a series of post-intervention semi-structured interviews with staff and participants. This will include data to examine participant experiences of and engagement with the intervention, and other aspects of delivery such as recruitment of DAWs, fidelity and experiences of receiving and delivering the intervention. This study aims to: 1) establish and field test the PRIDE intervention; 2) determine the recruitment rate of sites, providers and participants; 3) assess fidelity in delivery of the intervention and engagement with people with dementia; 4) assess the feasibility and acceptability of outcome measure data and 5) assess the acceptability of the intervention by stakeholders. Discussion: There has been increased need for non-pharmacological interventions for mild dementia. The results of this feasibility study will allow us to plan for a definitive RCT of a three session dementia advisor led intervention for mild dementia

Feasibility and acceptability evaluation of the PRIDE (Promoting Independence in Dementia) intervention for living well with dementia

Objectives: Post-diagnostic psychosocial interventions could play an important role in supporting people with mild dementia remain independent. The PRIDE intervention was developed to address this. Method: The mixed methods non-randomised, pre-post feasibility study occurred across England. Facilitators were recruited from the voluntary sector and memory services. Participants and their supporters took part in the 3-session intervention. Outcome measures were collected at baseline and follow-up. To evaluate acceptability, focus groups and interviews were conducted with a sub-sample of participants and facilitators. Results: Contextual challenges to delivery including national research governance changes, affecting recruitment of study sites. Thirty-four dyads consented, with 14 facilitators providing the intervention. Dyads took part in at least two sessions (79%), and 73% in all three. Outcome measures were completed by 79% without difficulty, with minimal missing data. No significant changes were found on pre and post assessments. Post-hoc analysis found moderate effect size improvements for self-management (SMAS instrument) in people with dementia (d=0 .41) and quality of life (EQ5D measure) in carers (d=0.40). Qualitative data indicated that dyads found PRIDE acceptable, as did intervention facilitators.Conclusions: The 3-session intervention was well accepted by participant-dyads and intervention facilitators. A randomised controlled trial of PRIDE would need to carefully consider recruitment potential across geographically varied settings, and site-stratification according to knowledge of contextual factors, such as the diversity of post-diagnostic services across the country. Letting sites themselves be responsible for identifying suitable intervention facilitators was successful. The self-report measures showed potential to be included in the main trial

Building an initial understanding of UK Recovery College dementia courses: A national survey of Recovery College and memory services staff. Journal: Working with Older People Working with Older People

PurposeRecovery Colleges were developed to support the recovery of people with mental health difficulties through courses co-produced by professionals and people with lived experience. This study aims to examine the use of Recovery Colleges to support people with dementia.Design/methodology/approachA survey was circulated to UK Recovery College and memory service staff, exploring provision, delivery and attendance of dementia courses. Open responses provided insight into participant views about recovery in post-diagnostic support and the practicalities of running dementia courses.FindingsA total of 51 Recovery College staff and 210 memory service staff completed the survey. Twelve Recovery College dementia courses were identified across the UK. Three categories emerged from the qualitative data: post-diagnostic support, recovery in the context of dementia, challenges and areas of innovation

Campaña de intercomparación Brewer 2017: calibración del Brewer#102

Ponencia presentada en: XXXV Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el XIX Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en León, del 5 al 7 de marzo de 2018.En noviembre del 2003 y bajo el amparo de la Organización Mundial Meteorología (OMM) y el Programa para la Observación Global de la Atmósfera (GAW) se estableció el Centro de calibración Regional Brewer para Europa (RBCC-E) en el Observatorio Atmosférico de Izaña (IZO) perteneciente a la Agencia Estatal de Meteorología. El RBCC-E es la referencia europea lo que le permite utilizar sus observaciones para calibrar estos Brewers. El RBCC-E organiza intercomparaciones anuales, que alternan su sede entre la estación de Radiosondeo El Arenosillo (Huelva) perteneciente al Instituto Nacional de Técnica Aeroespacial (INTA) y el Observatorio Atmosférico de Arosa (Suiza) operado por Meteoswiss. La XII Campaña de calibración se realizó en El Arenosillo entre los días del 29 de mayo al 7 de Junio, 2017. En esta campaña participaron más de 20 Brewers pertenecientes a 11 organizaciones tanto servicios meteorológicos nacionales como instituciones privadas. Además, se pudo realizar una calibración espectral en el rango ultravioleta gracias a la participación de la referencia estándar viajera QASUME perteneciente al centro de calibración Mundial para ultravioleta (WCC-UV). En este trabajo se presenta una visión general del estado inicial y final de la calibración del Brewer#102, indicando los principales parámetros que han sido tenidos en cuenta en su calibración: lámpara estándar, corrección de filtros, resultados del test de dispersión y transferencia de la nueva ETC (Constante extra-terrestre). También, y debido a que el instrumento es un Brewer de monocromador simple se calculó su corrección por stray light

'The dynamic nature of being a person': An ethnographic study of people living with dementia in their communities

Background and Objectives: A dementia diagnosis can impact on social interactions. This study aims to understand how people living with dementia act as social beings within everyday interactions in their local communities. Research Design and Methods: Focused ethnography informed by Spradley’s approach to data collection and analysis. Observations in community spaces. Results: Twenty-nine observations were undertaken in everyday social settings with 11 people with dementia who were part of a longitudinal interview study. Data consisted of 40 hours of observation, and researcher fieldnotes. The overarching theme ‘The dynamic nature of being a person’ encapsulates participants’ exhibited experiences in negotiating to attain and sustain an acknowledged place in their communities. Two sub-themes characterized contexts and actions: 1 ‘Being me - not dementia’: participants constructed narratives to assert their ontological presence in social settings. They and others used strategies to mediate cognitive changes evidencing dementia. 2 ‘Resisting or acquiescing to ‘being absent in place’’: Participants were often able to resist being absent to the gaze of others, but some social structures and behaviors led to a person being ‘in place’, yet not having their presence confirmed. Discussion and Implications: People living with dementia can actively draw on personal attributes, familiar rituals, objects, and social roles to continue to present themselves as social beings. Identifying how post-diagnosis people may self-manage cognitive changes to retain their presence as a person can help health and social care practitioners and families collaborate with the person living with dementia enabling them to have a continued social presence