Resting heart rate and risk of dementia: A Mendelian randomization study in the international genomics of Alzheimer’s project and UK Biobank

Background: Observational studies have demonstrated that a higher resting heart rate (RHR) is associated with an increased risk of dementia. However, it is not clear whether the association is causal. This study aimed to determine the causal effects of higher genetically predicted RHR on the risk of dementia. Methods: We performed a two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis to investigate the causal effect of higher genetically predicted RHR on Alzheimer’s disease (AD) using summary statistics from genome-wide association studies. The generalized summary Mendelian randomization (GSMR) analysis was used to analyze the corresponding effects of RHR on following different outcomes: 1) diagnosis of AD (International Genomics of Alzheimer’s Project), 2) family history (maternal and paternal) of AD from UK Biobank, 3) combined meta-analysis including these three GWAS results. Further analyses were conducted to determine the possibility of reverse causal association by adjusting for RHR modifying medication. Results: The results of GSMR showed no significant causal effect of higher genetically predicted RHR on the risk of AD (βGSMR = 0.12, P = 0.30). GSMR applied to the maternal family history of AD (βGSMR = −0.18, P = 0.13) and to the paternal family history of AD (βGSMR = −0.14, P = 0.39) showed the same results. Furthermore, the results were robust after adjusting for RHR modifying drugs (βGSMR = −0.03, P = 0.72). Conclusion: Our study did not find any evidence that supports a causal effect of RHR on dementia. Previous observational associations between RHR and dementia are likely attributed to the correlation between RHR and other cardiovascular diseases

Women's Participation in Cardiovascular Clinical Trials From 2010 to 2017

Background: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death among women worldwide, yet, women have historically been underrepresented in cardiovascular trials. Methods: We systematically assessed the participation of women in completed cardiovascular trials registered in ClinicalTrials.gov between 2010 and 2017, and extracted publicly available information including disease type, sponsor type, country, trial size, intervention type, and the demographic characteristics of trial participants. We calculated the female-to-male ratio for each trial and determined the prevalence-adjusted estimates for participation of women by dividing the percentage of women among trial participants by the percentage of women in the disease population (participation prevalence ratio; a ratio of 0.8 to 1.2 suggests comparable prevalence and good representation). Results: We identified 740 completed cardiovascular trials including a total of 862 652 adults, of whom 38.2% were women. The median female-to-male ratio of each trial was 0.51 (25th quartile, 0.32; 75th quartile, 0.90) overall and varied by age group (1.02 in ≤55 year old group versus 0.40 in the 61- to 65-year-old group), type of intervention (0.44 for procedural trials versus 0.78 for lifestyle intervention trials), disease type (0.34 for acute coronary syndrome versus 3.20 for pulmonary hypertension), region (0.45 for Western Pacific versus 0.55 for the Americas), funding/sponsor type (0.14 for government-funded versus 0.73 for multiple sponsors), and trial size (0.56 for smaller [n≤47] versus 0.49 for larger [n≥399] trials). Relative to their prevalence in the disease population, participation prevalence ratio was higher than 0.8 for hypertension, pulmonary arterial hypertension and lower (participation prevalence ratio 0.48 to 0.78) for arrhythmia, coronary heart disease, acute coronary syndrome, and heart failure trials. The most recent time period (2013 to 2017) saw significant increases in participation prevalence ratios for stroke (P=0.007) and heart failure (P=0.01) trials compared with previous periods. Conclusions: Among cardiovascular trials in the current decade, men still predominate overall, but the representation of women varies with disease and trial characteristics, and has improved in stroke and heart failure trials

Hypertension in China: burdens, guidelines and policy responses: a state-of-the-art review.

Hypertension is a leading risk factor of cardiovascular disease and it is becoming increasingly prevalent globally. Correspondingly, the Chinese government and public health institutions have issued a series of policy documents and guidelines for hypertension. However, no comprehensive review of such documents has been conducted. Hence, this review aims to provide an up-to-date and comprehensive assessment of not only the disease burden, but also hypertension management policies and guidelines in China. A total of 15 epidemiological studies based on national population surveys, 15 Chinese Hypertension Guidelines, and seven policy documents were identified. We found a larger burden of hypertension in men, while the awareness, treatment, and control rates have remained low in both sexes. The ranges of hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control rate among hypertensive patients were 18.0-44.7%, 23.6-56.2%, 14.2-48.5%, and 4.2-30.1% respectively. Chinese hypertension guidelines provide evidence-based instructions to healthcare practitioners over hypertension management in which primary healthcare is increasingly emphasized. Finally, the policy documents set national goals for hypertension management and standardized the services provided in primary healthcare. The findings highlight the importance of integrating new guidelines into hypertension management provided by primary healthcare practitioners and the need to evaluate the implementation of guidelines and policies

A feasibility study on using smartphones to conduct short-version verbal autopsies in rural China

Background: Currently there are two main sources of mortality data with cause of death assignments in China. Both sources-the Ministry of Health-Vital Registration system and the Chinese Disease Surveillance Point system-present their own challenges. A new approach to cause of death assignment is a smartphone-based shortened version of a verbal autopsy survey. This study evaluates the feasibility and acceptability of this new method conducted by township health care providers (THP) and village doctors (VD) in rural China, where a large proportion of deaths occur in homes and cause of death data are inaccurate or lacking. Methods: The Population Health Metrics Research Consortium mobile phone-based shortened verbal autopsy questionnaire was made available on an Android system-based application, and cause of death was derived using the Tariff method (Tariff 2.0); we called this set of tools "msVA." msVA was administered to relatives of the deceased by six THPs and six VDs in 24 villages located in six townships of Luquan County, Hebei Province, China. Subsequently, interviews were conducted among 12 interviewers, 12 randomly selected respondents, and five study staff to assess the feasibility and acceptability of using msVA for mortality data collection. Results: Between July 2013 and August 2013, 268 deaths took place in the study villages. Among the 268 deaths, 227 VAs were completed (nine refusals, 31 migrations and one loss of data due to breakdown of the smartphone). The average time for a VA interview was 21.5 +/- 3.4 min (20.1 +/- 3.5 min for THP and 23.2 +/- 4.1 min for VD). Both THPs and VDs could be successful interviewers; the latter needed more training but had more willingness to implement msVA in the future. The interviews revealed that both interviewers and relatives of the deceased found msVA to be feasible, acceptable, and more desirable than traditional methods. The cost of conducting a new VA was $ 8.87 per death. Conclusions: Conduction of msVA by VDs in their own villages was feasible and acceptable in rural northern China. Broader implementation of msVA across rural China could potentially improve the coverage and quality of cause of death data, allowing for better national health evaluation and program planning.National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services [HHSN268200900034C]; NHLBI-UHG Trainee Seed [email protected]

An economic evaluation of a primary care-based technology-enabled intervention for stroke secondary prevention and management in rural China : a study protocol

Introduction: Secondary prevention of stroke is a leading challenge globally and only a few strategies have been tested to be effective in supporting stroke survivors. The system-integrated and technology-enabled model of care (SINEMA) intervention, a primary care-based and technology-enabled model of care, has been proven effective in strengthening the secondary prevention of stroke in rural China. The aim of this protocol is to outline the methods for the cost-effectiveness evaluation of the SINEMA intervention to better understand its potential economic benefits. Methods: The economic evaluation will be a nested study based on the SINEMA trial; a cluster-randomized controlled trial implemented in 50 villages in rural China. The effectiveness of the intervention will be estimated using quality-adjusted life years for the cost-utility analysis and reduction in systolic blood pressure for the cost-effectiveness analysis. Health resource and service use and program costs will be identified, measured, and valued at the individual level based on medication use, hospital visits, and inpatients' records. The economic evaluation will be conducted from the perspective of the healthcare system. Conclusion: The economic evaluation will be used to establish the value of the SINEMA intervention in the Chinese rural setting, which has great potential to be adapted and implemented in other resource-limited settings

Excess mortality among patients with severe mental disorders and effects of community-based mental healthcare: a community-based prospective study in Sichuan, China.

BACKGROUND: High-quality primary care reduces premature mortality in the general population, but evidence for psychiatric patients in China is scarce. AIMS: To confirm excess mortality in patients with severe mental illness (SMI), and to examine the impact of community-based mental healthcare and other risk factors on their mortality. METHOD: We included 93 655 patients in 2012 and 100 706 in 2013 from the national mental health surveillance system in Sichuan, China to calculate the standardised mortality ratio (SMR). A total of 112 576 patients were followed up from 2009 to 2014 for model analyses. We used growth models to quantify the patterns of change for community management measures, high-risk behaviour, disease stability and medication adherence of patients over time, and then used multilevel proportional hazard models to examine the association between change patterns of management measures and mortality. RESULTS: The SMR was 6.44 (95% CI 4.94-8.26) in 2012 and 7.57 (95% CI 5.98-9.44) in 2013 among patients with SMI aged 15-34 years, and diminished with age. Unfavourable baseline socioeconomic status increased the hazard of death by 38-50%. Positive changes in high-risk behaviour, disease stability and medication adherence had a 54% (95% CI 47-60%), 69% (95% CI 63-73%) and 20% (4-33%) reduction in hazard of death, respectively, versus in those where these were unchanged. CONCLUSIONS: High excess mortality was confirmed among younger patients with SMI in Sichuan, China. Our findings on the relationships between community management and socioeconomic factors and mortality can inform community-based mental healthcare policies to reduce excess mortality among patients with SMI

Towards sustainable partnerships in global health: the case of the CRONICAS Centre of Excellence in Chronic Diseases in Peru.

Human capital requires opportunities to develop and capacity to overcome challenges, together with an enabling environment that fosters critical and disruptive innovation. Exploring such features is necessary to establish the foundation of solid long-term partnerships. In this paper we describe the experience of the CRONICAS Centre of Excellence in Chronic Diseases, based at Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia in Lima, Peru, as a case study for fostering meaningful and sustainable partnerships for international collaborative research. The CRONICAS Centre of Excellence in Chronic Diseases was established in 2009 with the following Mission: "We support the development of young researchers and collaboration with national and international institutions. Our motivation is to improve population's health through high quality research." The Centre's identity is embedded in its core values - generosity, innovation, integrity, and quality- and its trajectory is a result of various interactions between multiple individuals, collaborators, teams, and institutions, which together with the challenges confronted, enables us to make an objective assessment of the partnership we would like to pursue, nurture and support. We do not intend to provide a single example of a successful partnership, but in contrast, to highlight what can be translated into opportunities to be faced by research groups based in low- and middle-income countries, and how these encounters can provide a strong platform for fruitful and sustainable partnerships. In defiant contexts, partnerships require to be nurtured and sustained. Acknowledging that all partnerships are not and should not be the same, we also need to learn from the evolution of such relationships, its key successes, hurdles and failures to contribute to the promotion of a culture of global solidarity where mutual goals, mutual gains, as well as mutual responsibilities are the norm. In so doing, we will all contribute to instil a new culture where expectations, roles and interactions among individuals and their teams are horizontal, the true nature of partnerships

World Heart Federation Roadmap for Secondary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease: 2023 Update.

BACKGROUND: Secondary prevention lifestyle and pharmacological treatment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) reduce a high proportion of recurrent events and mortality. However, significant gaps exist between guideline recommendations and usual clinical practice. OBJECTIVES: Describe the state of the art, the roadblocks, and successful strategies to overcome them in ASCVD secondary prevention management. METHODS: A writing group reviewed guidelines and research papers and received inputs from an international committee composed of cardiovascular prevention and health systems experts about the article's structure, content, and draft. Finally, an external expert group reviewed the paper. RESULTS: Smoking cessation, physical activity, diet and weight management, antiplatelets, statins, beta-blockers, renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors, and cardiac rehabilitation reduce events and mortality. Potential roadblocks may occur at the individual, healthcare provider, and health system levels and include lack of access to healthcare and medicines, clinical inertia, lack of primary care infrastructure or built environments that support preventive cardiovascular health behaviours. Possible solutions include improving health literacy, self-management strategies, national policies to improve lifestyle and access to secondary prevention medication (including fix-dose combination therapy), implementing rehabilitation programs, and incorporating digital health interventions. Digital tools are being examined in a range of settings from enhancing self-management, risk factor control, and cardiac rehab. CONCLUSIONS: Effective strategies for secondary prevention management exist, but there are barriers to their implementation. WHF roadmaps can facilitate the development of a strategic plan to identify and implement local and national level approaches for improving secondary prevention

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making