Visual Causality: Investigating Graph Layouts for Understanding Causal Processes

Causal diagrams provide a graphical formalism indicating how statistical models can be used to study causal processes. Despite the extensive research on the efficacy of aesthetic graphic layouts, the causal inference domain has not benefited from the results of this research. In this paper, we investigate the performance of graph visualisations for supporting users’ understanding of causal graphs. Two studies were conducted to compare graph visualisations for understanding causation and identifying confounding variables in a causal graph. The first study results suggest that while adjacency matrix layouts are better for understanding direct causation, node-link diagrams are better for understanding mediated causation along causal paths. The second study revealed that node-link layouts, and in particular layouts created by a radial algorithm, are more effective for identifying confounder and collider variables

Heavy metal and nitrogen concentrations in mosses are declining across Europe whilst some “hotspots” remain in 2010

In recent decades, naturally growing mosses have been used successfully as biomonitors of atmospheric deposition of heavy metals and nitrogen. Since 1990, the European moss survey has been repeated at five-yearly intervals. In 2010, the lowest concentrations of metals and nitrogen in mosses were generally found in northern Europe, whereas the highest concentrations were observed in (south-)eastern Europe for metals and the central belt for nitrogen. Averaged across Europe, since 1990, the median concentration in mosses has declined the most for lead (77%), followed by vanadium (55%), cadmium (51%), chromium (43%), zinc (34%), nickel (33%), iron (27%), arsenic (21%, since 1995), mercury (14%, since 1995) and copper (11%). Between 2005 and 2010, the decline ranged from 6% for copper to 36% for lead; for nitrogen the decline was 5%. Despite the Europe-wide decline, no changes or increases have been observed between 2005 and 2010 in some (regions of) countries

Modelling spatial patterns of correlations between concentrations of heavy metals in mosses and atmospheric deposition in 2010 across Europe

BackgroundThis paper aims to investigate the correlations between the concentrations of nine heavy metals in moss and atmospheric deposition within ecological land classes covering Europe. Additionally, it is examined to what extent the statistical relations are affected by the land use around the moss sampling sites. Based on moss data collected in 2010/2011 throughout Europe and data on total atmospheric deposition modelled by two chemical transport models (EMEP MSC-E, LOTOS-EUROS), correlation coefficients between concentrations of heavy metals in moss and in modelled atmospheric deposition were specified for spatial subsamples defined by ecological land classes of Europe (ELCE) as a spatial reference system. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and logistic regression (LR) were then used to separate moss sampling sites regarding their contribution to the strength of correlation considering the areal percentage of urban, agricultural and forestry land use around the sampling location. After verification LDA models by LR, LDA models were used to transform spatial information on the land use to maps of potential correlation levels, applicable for future network planning in the European Moss Survey.ResultsCorrelations between concentrations of heavy metals in moss and in modelled atmospheric deposition were found to be specific for elements and ELCE units. Land use around the sampling sites mainly influences the correlation level. Small radiuses around the sampling sites examined (5km) are more relevant for Cd, Cu, Ni, and Zn, while the areal percentage of urban and agricultural land use within large radiuses (75-100km) is more relevant for As, Cr, Hg, Pb, and V. Most valid LDA models pattern with error rates of <40% were found for As, Cr, Cu, Hg, Pb, and V. Land use-dependent predictions of spatial patterns split up Europe into investigation areas revealing potentially high (=above-average) or low (=below-average) correlation coefficients.ConclusionsLDA is an eligible method identifying and ranking boundary conditions of correlations between atmospheric deposition and respective concentrations of heavy metals in moss and related mapping considering the influence of the land use around moss sampling sites

Peculiarities of dancers training

For dancers to look mostly effective, they need to move as a single body, maintaining a smooth movement along with the music, despite changing directions. Each movement should be more amplified than usual, but with gentle footwork and elegant posture. The slightest deficiency in some ability due to fatigue is a determining factor in whether the dancers will enter the next round. Research aim is to analyze the literature and to reveal Latin American dancers training peculiarities

Investigating the impact of anthropogenic land use on a hemiboreal lake ecosystem using carbon/nitrogen ratios and coupled-optical emission spectroscopy

Anthropogenic impacts on lake ecosystems have increased substantially towards the present. However, the strength and timing in most cases are not evaluated in detail, missing valuable information on the response and recovery of an aquatic system. In this study, we use the sediment total organic carbon/total nitrogen ratio (C/N) and inductively coupled-optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES) elements and the available information about the biological processes to explore anthropogenic land use impact on the lake ecosystem. As a case study we selected a hemiboreal lake Trikātas (Latvia, NE Europe). The Pearson correlation was used to statistically test the correlations of all variables. Our results show that the C/N ratio lowered immediately with the onset of crop cultivation at 500 BCE. Extensive forest clearance and an abrupt increase in land use are reflected through the associated chemical elements from ICP-OES and the increasing presence of herbivore dung spores since 1200 CE. These changes concur with the excess of fish remains suggesting a decrease in fish populations. Interestingly, anthropogenic land use driven erosion and accompanied calcium carbonate (CaCO3) matter influx favoured the abundance of Chara spp. in Lake Trikātas since 500 CE, which currently forms the protected specific habitat-type (H3140) of the European Union. At present, specific submerged macrophyte Chara habitat-type diminished almost entirely due to increased nutrient input, phytoplankton blooming, hypertrophic conditions and reduced light availability. The continued land use practices led to a switch in organic matter source in the lake from macrophytes to solely algal origin. The current study underlines the need of additional methods used to detect the sensitivity of lake ecosystem to external disturbances such as minor anthropogenic land use that might not necessarily be apparent in more traditional analyses such as palynology