Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain

Within the warm conveyor belt of extra-tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are the key synoptic features which deliver the majority of poleward water vapour transport, and are associated with episodes of heavy and prolonged rainfall. ARs are responsible for many of the largest winter floods in the mid-latitudes resulting in major socioeconomic losses; for example, the loss from United Kingdom (UK) flooding in summer/winter 2012 is estimated to be about $1.6 billion in damages. Given the well-established link between ARs and peak river flows for the present day, assessing how ARs could respond under future climate projections is of importance in gauging future impacts from flooding. We show that North Atlantic ARs are projected to become stronger and more numerous in the future scenarios of multiple simulations from five state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) in the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The increased water vapour transport in projected ARs implies a greater risk of higher rainfall totals and therefore larger winter floods in Britain, with increased AR frequency leading to more flood episodes. In the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) for 2074–2099 there is an approximate doubling of AR frequency in the five GCMs. Our results suggest that the projected change in ARs is predominantly a thermodynamic response to warming resulting from anthropogenic radiative forcing

Multi-trait mimicry of ants by a parasitoid wasp

Many animals avoid attack from predators through toxicity or the emission of repellent chemicals. Defensive mimicry has evolved in many species to deceive shared predators, for instance through colouration and other morphological adaptations, but mimicry hardly ever seems to involve multi-trait similarities. Here we report on a wingless parasitoid wasp that exhibits a full spectrum of traits mimicing ants and affording protection against ground-dwelling predators (wolf spiders). In body size, morphology and movement Gelis agilis (Ichneumonidae) is highly similar to the black garden ant (Lasius niger) that shares the same habitat. When threatened, G. agilis also emits a volatile chemical that is similar to an ant-produced chemical that repels spiders. In bioassays with L. niger, G. agilis, G. areator, Cotesia glomerata and Drosophila melanogaster, ants and G. agilis were virtually immune to spider attack, in contrast the other species were not. Volatile characterisation with gas chromatography-mass spectrometry identified G. agilis emissions as 6-methyl-5-hepten-2-one, a known insect defence semiochemical that acts as an alarm pheromone in ants. We argue that multi-trait mimicry, as observed in G. agilis, might be much more common among animals than currently realized

The Chemistry of the Postpharyngeal Gland of Female European Beewolves

Females of the European beewolf, Philanthus triangulum, possess a large glove-shaped gland in the head, the postpharyngeal gland (PPG). They apply the content of the PPG to their prey, paralyzed honeybees, where it delays fungal infestation. Here, we describe the chemical composition of the gland by using combined GC-MS, GC-FTIR, and derivatization. The PPG of beewolves contains mainly long-chain unsaturated hydrocarbons (C23–C33), lower amounts of saturated hydrocarbons (C14–C33), and minor amounts of methyl-branched hydrocarbons (C17–C31). Additionally, the hexane-soluble gland content is comprised of small amounts of an unsaturated C25 alcohol, an unknown sesquiterpene, an octadecenylmethylester, and several long-chain saturated (C25, C27) and unsaturated (C23–C27) ketones, some of which have not yet been reported as natural products. Surprisingly, we found a dimorphism with regard to the major component of the PPG with some females having (Z)-9-pentacosene, whereas others have (Z)-9-heptacosene as their predominant component. The biological relevance of the compounds for the prevention of fungal growth on the prey and the significance of the chemical dimorphism are discussed

Predicting climate change using response theory: global averages and spatial patterns

The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere featuring O(105105) degrees of freedom, we show how it is possible to approach such a problem using nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. Response theory allows one to practically compute the time-dependent measure supported on the pullback attractor of the climate system, whose dynamics is non-autonomous as a result of time-dependent forcings. We propose a simple yet efficient method for predicting—at any lead time and in an ensemble sense—the change in climate properties resulting from increase in the concentration of CO22 using test perturbation model runs. We assess strengths and limitations of the response theory in predicting the changes in the globally averaged values of surface temperature and of the yearly total precipitation, as well as in their spatial patterns. The quality of the predictions obtained for the surface temperature fields is rather good, while in the case of precipitation a good skill is observed only for the global average. We also show how it is possible to define accurately concepts like the inertia of the climate system or to predict when climate change is detectable given a scenario of forcing. Our analysis can be extended for dealing with more complex portfolios of forcings and can be adapted to treat, in principle, any climate observable. Our conclusion is that climate change is indeed a problem that can be effectively seen through a statistical mechanical lens, and that there is great potential for optimizing the current coordinated modelling exercises run for the preparation of the subsequent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change

Dissociation of Motor Task-Induced Cortical Excitability and Pain Perception Changes in Healthy Volunteers

Background: There is evidence that interventions aiming at modulation of the motor cortex activity lead to pain reduction. In order to understand further the role of the motor cortex on pain modulation, we aimed to compare the behavioral (pressure pain threshold) and neurophysiological effects (transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) induced cortical excitability) across three different motor tasks. Methodology/Principal Findings Fifteen healthy male subjects were enrolled in this randomized, controlled, blinded, cross-over designed study. Three different tasks were tested including motor learning with and without visual feedback, and simple hand movements. Cortical excitability was assessed using single and paired-pulse TMS measures such as resting motor threshold (RMT), motor-evoked potential (MEP), intracortical facilitation (ICF), short intracortical inhibition (SICI), and cortical silent period (CSP). All tasks showed significant reduction in pain perception represented by an increase in pressure pain threshold compared to the control condition (untrained hand). ANOVA indicated a difference among the three tasks regarding motor cortex excitability change. There was a significant increase in motor cortex excitability (as indexed by MEP increase and CSP shortening) for the simple hand movements. Conclusions/Significance: Although different motor tasks involving motor learning with and without visual feedback and simple hand movements appear to change pain perception similarly, it is likely that the neural mechanisms might not be the same as evidenced by differential effects in motor cortex excitability induced by these tasks. In addition, TMS-indexed motor excitability measures are not likely good markers to index the effects of motor-based tasks on pain perception in healthy subjects as other neural networks besides primary motor cortex might be involved with pain modulation during motor training

Entropy production and coarse graining of the climate fields in a general circulation model

We extend the analysis of the thermodynamics of the climate system by investigating the role played by processes taking place at various spatial and temporal scales through a procedure of coarse graining. We show that the coarser is the graining of the climatic fields, the lower is the resulting estimate of the material entropy production. In other terms, all the spatial and temporal scales of variability of the thermodynamic fields provide a positive contribution to the material entropy production. This may be interpreted also as that, at all scales, the temperature fields and the heating fields resulting from the convergence of turbulent fluxes have a negative correlation, while the opposite holds between the temperature fields and the radiative heating fields. Moreover, we obtain that the latter correlations are stronger, which confirms that radiation acts as primary driver for the climatic processes, while the material fluxes dampen the resulting fluctuations through dissipative processes. We also show, using specific coarse-graining procedures, how one can separate the various contributions to the material entropy production coming from the dissipation of kinetic energy, the vertical sensible and latent heat fluxes, and the large scale horizontal fluxes, without resorting to the full three-dimensional time dependent fields. We find that most of the entropy production is associated to irreversible exchanges occurring along the vertical direction, and that neglecting the horizontal and time variability of the fields has a relatively small impact on the estimate of the material entropy production. The approach presented here seems promising for testing climate models, for assessing the impact of changing their parametrizations and their resolution, as well as for investigating the atmosphere of exoplanets, because it allows for evaluating the error in the estimate of their thermodynamical properties due to the lack of high-resolution data. The findings on the impact of coarse graining on the thermodynamic fields on the estimate of the material entropy production deserve to be explored in a more general context, because they provide a way for understanding the relationship between forced fluctuations and dissipative processes in continuum systems

Impairment of Auditory-Motor Timing and Compensatory Reorganization after Ventral Premotor Cortex Stimulation

Integrating auditory and motor information often requires precise timing as in speech and music. In humans, the position of the ventral premotor cortex (PMv) in the dorsal auditory stream renders this area a node for auditory-motor integration. Yet, it remains unknown whether the PMv is critical for auditory-motor timing and which activity increases help to preserve task performance following its disruption. 16 healthy volunteers participated in two sessions with fMRI measured at baseline and following rTMS (rTMS) of either the left PMv or a control region. Subjects synchronized left or right finger tapping to sub-second beat rates of auditory rhythms in the experimental task, and produced self-paced tapping during spectrally matched auditory stimuli in the control task. Left PMv rTMS impaired auditory-motor synchronization accuracy in the first sub-block following stimulation (p<0.01, Bonferroni corrected), but spared motor timing and attention to task. Task-related activity increased in the homologue right PMv, but did not predict the behavioral effect of rTMS. In contrast, anterior midline cerebellum revealed most pronounced activity increase in less impaired subjects. The present findings suggest a critical role of the left PMv in feed-forward computations enabling accurate auditory-motor timing, which can be compensated by activity modulations in the cerebellum, but not in the homologue region contralateral to stimulation

Differential Effects of Aging on Fore– and Hindpaw Maps of Rat Somatosensory Cortex

Getting older is associated with a decline of cognitive and sensorimotor abilities, but it remains elusive whether age-related changes are due to accumulating degenerational processes, rendering them largely irreversible, or whether they reflect plastic, adaptational and presumably compensatory changes. Using aged rats as a model we studied how aging affects neural processing in somatosensory cortex. By multi-unit recordings in the fore- and hindpaw cortical maps we compared the effects of aging on receptive field size and response latencies. While in aged animals response latencies of neurons of both cortical representations were lengthened by approximately the same amount, only RFs of hindpaw neurons showed severe expansion with only little changes of forepaw RFs. To obtain insight into parallel changes of walking behavior, we recorded footprints in young and old animals which revealed a general age-related impairment of walking. In addition we found evidence for a limb-specific deterioration of the hindlimbs that was not observed in the forelimbs. Our results show that age-related changes of somatosensory cortical neurons display a complex pattern of regional specificity and parameter-dependence indicating that aging acts rather selectively on cortical processing of sensory information. The fact that RFs of the fore- and hindpaws do not co-vary in aged animals argues against degenerational processes on a global scale. We therefore conclude that age-related alterations are composed of plastic-adaptive alterations in response to modified use and degenerational changes developing with age. As a consequence, age-related changes need not be irreversible but can be subject to amelioration through training and stimulation

Fatigue in neuromuscular disorders: focus on Guillain–Barré syndrome and Pompe disease

Fatigue accounts for an important part of the burden experienced by patients with neuromuscular disorders. Substantial high prevalence rates of fatigue are reported in a wide range of neuromuscular disorders, such as Guillain–Barré syndrome and Pompe disease. Fatigue can be subdivided into experienced fatigue and physiological fatigue. Physiological fatigue in turn can be of central or peripheral origin. Peripheral fatigue is an important contributor to fatigue in neuromuscular disorders, but in reaction to neuromuscular disease fatigue of central origin can be an important protective mechanism to restrict further damage. In most cases, severity of fatigue seems to be related with disease severity, possibly with the exception of fatigue occurring in a monophasic disorder like Guillain–Barré syndrome. Treatment of fatigue in neuromuscular disease starts with symptomatic treatment of the underlying disease. When symptoms of fatigue persist, non-pharmacological interventions, such as exercise and cognitive behavioral therapy, can be initiated