Intuitive Biases in Choice Versus Estimation: Implications for the Wisdom of Crowds

Although researchers have documented many instances of crowd wisdom, it is important to know whether some kinds of judgments may lead the crowd astray, whether crowds’ judgments improve with feedback over time, and whether crowds’ judgments can be improved by changing the way judgments are elicited. We investigated these questions in a sports gambling context (predictions against point spreads) believed to elicit crowd wisdom. In a season-long experiment, fans wagered over $20,000 on NFL football predictions. Contrary to the wisdom-of-crowds hypothesis, faulty intuitions led the crowd to predict “favorites” more than “underdogs” against point spreads that disadvantaged favorites, even when bettors knew that the spreads disadvantaged favorites. Moreover, the bias increased over time, a result consistent with attributions for success and failure that rewarded intuitive choosing. However, when the crowd predicted game outcomes by estimating point differentials rather than by predicting against point spreads, its predictions were unbiased and wiser

Fashioning Entitlements: A Comparative Law and Economic Analysis of the Judicial Role in Environmental Centralization in the U.S. and Europe

This paper identifies and evaluates, from an economic point of view, the role of the judiciary the steady shift of environmental regulatory authority to higher, more centralized levels of government in both the U.S. and Europe. We supply both a positive analysis of how the decisions made by judges have affected the incentives of both private and public actors to pollute the natural environment, and normative answers to the question of whether judges have acted so as to create incentives that move levels of pollution in an efficient direction, toward their optimal, cost-minimizing (or net-benefit-maximizing) levels. Highlights of the analysis include the following points: 1) Industrial-era local (state or national) legislation awarding entitlements to pollute was almost certainly inefficient due to a fundamental economic obstacle faced by those who suffer harm from the over-pollution of publicly owned natural resources: the inability to monetize and credibly commit to repay the future economic value of reducing pollution. 2) When industrial era pollution spilled across state lines in the US, the federal courts, in particular the Supreme Court, fashioned a federal common law of interstate nuisance that set up essentially the same sort of blurry, uncertain entitlements to pollute or be free of pollution that had been created by the state courts in resolving local pollution disputes. We argue that for the typical pollution problem, a legal regime of blurry interstate entitlements - with neither jurisdiction having a clear right either to pollute or be free of pollution from the other - is likely to generate efficient incentives for interjursidictional bargaining, even despite the public choice problems besetting majority-rule government. Interestingly, a very similar system of de facto entitlements arose and often stimulated interjursidictional bargaining in Europe as well as in the U.S. 3) The US federal courts have generally interpreted the federal environmental statutes in ways that give clear primacy to federal regulators. Through such judicial interpretation, state and local regulators face a continuing risk of having their decisions overridden by federal regulators. This reduces the incentives for regulatory innovation at the state and local level. Judicial authorization of federal overrides has thus weakened the economic rationale for cooperative federalism suggested by economic models of principal-agent relationships. As a result of the principle of attribution, there is less risk in Europe that (like in the US) courts would enlarge the federal purview and thereby limit the powers of the Member States. Despite this principle, the power of the European bureaucracy (that is, the European Commission) has steadily increased and led to a steady shift of environmental regulatory competencies to the European level. This shift is only sometimes normatively desirable, and yet there is little that the ECJ can or will do to slow it

Making space for empathy: supporting doctors in the emotional labour of clinical care

BACKGROUND: The academic and medical literature highlights the positive effects of empathy for patient care. Yet, very little attention has been given to the impact of the requirement for empathy on the physicians themselves and on their emotional wellbeing. DISCUSSION: The medical profession requires doctors to be both clinically competent and empathetic towards the patients. In practice, accommodating both requirements can be difficult for physicians. The image of the technically skilful, rational, and emotionally detached doctor dominates the profession, and inhibits physicians from engaging emotionally with their patients and their own feelings, which forms the basis for empathy. This inhibition has a negative impact not only on the patients but also on the physicians. The expression of emotions in medical practice is perceived as unprofessional and many doctors learn to supress and ignore their feelings. When facing stressful situations, these physicians are more likely to suffer from depression and burnout than those who engage with and reflect on their feelings. Physicians should be supported in their emotional work, which will help them develop empathy. Methods could include questionnaires that aid self-reflection, and discussion groups with peers and supervisors on emotional experiences. Yet, in order for these methods to work, the negative image associated with the expression of emotions should be questioned. Also, the work conditions of physicians should improve to allow them to make use of these tools. SUMMARY: Empathy should not only be expected from doctors but should be actively promoted, assisted and cultivated in the medical profession

SNCA Triplication Parkinson's Patient's iPSC-derived DA Neurons Accumulate α-Synuclein and Are Susceptible to Oxidative Stress

Parkinson's disease (PD) is an incurable age-related neurodegenerative disorder affecting both the central and peripheral nervous systems. Although common, the etiology of PD remains poorly understood. Genetic studies infer that the disease results from a complex interaction between genetics and environment and there is growing evidence that PD may represent a constellation of diseases with overlapping yet distinct underlying mechanisms. Novel clinical approaches will require a better understanding of the mechanisms at work within an individual as well as methods to identify the specific array of mechanisms that have contributed to the disease. Induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC) strategies provide an opportunity to directly study the affected neuronal subtypes in a given patient. Here we report the generation of iPSC-derived midbrain dopaminergic neurons from a patient with a triplication in the α-synuclein gene (SNCA). We observed that the iPSCs readily differentiated into functional neurons. Importantly, the PD-affected line exhibited disease-related phenotypes in culture: accumulation of α-synuclein, inherent overexpression of markers of oxidative stress, and sensitivity to peroxide induced oxidative stress. These findings show that the dominantly-acting PD mutation is intrinsically capable of perturbing normal cell function in culture and confirm that these features reflect, at least in part, a cell autonomous disease process that is independent of exposure to the entire complexity of the diseased brain

Ribosome-Associated Vesicles promote activity-dependent local translation

Local protein synthesis in axons and dendrites underpins synaptic plasticity. However, the composition of the protein synthesis machinery in distal neuronal processes and the mechanisms for its activity-driven deployment to local translation sites remain unclear. Here, we employed cryo-electron tomography, volume electron microscopy, and live-cell imaging to identify Ribosome-Associated Vesicles (RAVs) as a dynamic platform for moving ribosomes to distal processes. Stimulation via chemically-induced long-term potentiation causes RAV accumulation in distal sites to drive local translation. We also demonstrate activity-driven changes in RAV generation and dynamics , identifying tubular ER shaping proteins in RAV biogenesis. Together, our work identifies a mechanism for ribosomal delivery to distal sites in neurons to promote activity-dependent local translation

Targeting cells with single vectors using multiple-feature Boolean logic

Precisely defining the roles of specific cell types is an intriguing frontier in the study of intact biological systems and has stimulated the rapid development of genetically encoded tools for observation and control. However, targeting these tools with adequate specificity remains challenging: most cell types are best defined by the intersection of two or more features such as active promoter elements, location and connectivity. Here we have combined engineered introns with specific recombinases to achieve expression of genetically encoded tools that is conditional upon multiple cell-type features, using Boolean logical operations all governed by a single versatile vector. We used this approach to target intersectionally specified populations of inhibitory interneurons in mammalian hippocampus and neurons of the ventral tegmental area defined by both genetic and wiring properties. This flexible and modular approach may expand the application of genetically encoded interventional and observational tools for intact-systems biology

Relationships between fundamental movement skills and objectively measured physical activity in pre-school children

Gender differences in cross-sectional relationships between fundamental movement skill (FMS) subdomains (locomotor skills, object-control skills) and physical activity were examined in preschool children. Forty-six 3- to 5-year-olds (25 boys) had their FMS video assessed (Test of Gross Motor Development II) and their physical activity objectively monitored (Actigraph 7164 accelerometers). Among boys, object-control skills were associated with physical activity and explained 16.9% (p = .024) and 13.7% (p = .049) of the variance in percent of time in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and total physical activity, respectively, after controlling for age, SES and z-BMI. Locomotor skills were inversely associated with physical activity among girls, and explained 19.2% (p = .023) of the variance in percent of time in MVPA after controlling for confounders. Gender and FMS subdomain may influence the relationship between FMS and physical activity in preschool children