Marriage Squeeze, Never-Married Proportion, and Mean Age at First Marriage in China

China’s sex ratio imbalance and the surplus of males have received a great deal of attention, but measures of the extent of the marriage squeeze do not take into account the marital status of population. In this paper, we devise an index of the marriage squeeze for the never-married population and use it to project the male marriage squeeze from 2000 to 2060. From the predicted population and nuptiality tables, we estimate trends in the proportion of men that never marry by age 50 and the mean age at first marriage. We find that the marriage squeeze is much more intense if only the never-married population is considered, rather than including all people without distinguishing their marital status. As the lifelong never-married proportion increases, mean age at first marriage rises first and then declines

The risk of mothers: losing an only child in China

China’s one-child policy has been quite successful in bringing down the country’s fertility level but has produced a large number of one-child families. The risk of one-child families losing their only child has not received enough attention. In this paper, using an extension of Goldman & Lord (1983)’s method to measure widowhood, period life-table data from China’s 2000 population census are used to examine age-specific and cumulative probabilities of mothers losing their only child. It is found that a mother faces a 14.94% probability of losing a son, and 12.21% probability of losing a daughter. As the age of first-time mothers increases, the probability of losing a child declines. Urban and rural mothers have different indices regarding the loss of children. Based on these findings the prospects for China’s one-child policy are discussed.This work was supported by the 985-3 Project of Xi'an Jiaotong University, and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities. It was also supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (CSO2012-31206)

Data uncertainties in China's population

China’s large population and many demographic phenomena have drawn much attention, but its population data are flawed. In the paper we address uncertainties regarding China’s total population size, the fertility rate, and the death rate in China’s census data. The review is aimed to alert users of China’s data about the uncertainties and flaws so as to avoid misleading claims or research.This work is jointly supported by the key project of the National Social Science Foundation of China (14AZD096), the HSSTP project of Shaanxi Province (Jiang), and the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (CSO2012-31206)

Elderly widowhood in China

As population ageing accelerates in China, the number of elderly widowed individuals are expected to increase. Using 2010 census data we estimate widowhood indices for rural and urban areas, and for men and women in China. The indices show that the probability of elderly widowhood to be higher for females (0.68) than males (0.32)-with no rural and urban difference. An average marriage in China lasts about 47 years. After the death of a spouse, the average duration of widowhood is about 11 years for males and about 15 years for females. Spousal age difference has a significant impact on widowhood indices. Rural populations have the shortest marriage duration and the youngest widowhood age, and longer widowhood duration.This work is jointly supported by the key project of the National Social Science Foundation (Jiang), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71273205) and the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (CSO2012-31206

Fertility intention, son preference, and second childbirth: survey findings from Shaanxi province of China

China is characterized by a low fertility intention, a strong preference for sons, as well as a stringent birth control policy. In this study, we used data from a Fertility Intention and Behavior Survey of 2101 questionnaires conducted in 2013 in Shaanxi Province of northwestern China, and event history analysis methods to examine the effect of fertility intention and preference for sons on the probability of having a second child. The results not only validate the correlation of fertility intention with having a second child empirically, even in the low fertility intention and stringent birth control context of China, but also show that women with a preference for sons were less likely to have a second child. Women with son preference turn to sex-selective abortion to ensure that their first child is a son, thus reducing the likelihood of a second child and decreasing the fertility rate. Our findings also shed light on China's potential fertility policy adjustment.This work is jointly supported by the key project of the National Social Science Foundation of China (14AZD096), the HSSTP project of Shaanxi Province (Jiang), and the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (CSO2012-31206

A Turnover in the Galaxy Main Sequence of Star Formation at M∗∼1010M⊙M_{*} \sim 10^{10} M_{\odot} for Redshifts z<1.3z < 1.3

The relationship between galaxy star formation rates (SFR) and stellar masses ($M_\ast$) is re-examined using a mass-selected sample of $\sim$62,000 star-forming galaxies at $z \le 1.3$ in the COSMOS 2-deg$^2$ field. Using new far-infrared photometry from $Herschel$-PACS and SPIRE and $Spitzer$-MIPS 24 $\mu$m, along with derived infrared luminosities from the NRK method based on galaxies' locations in the restframe color-color diagram $(NUV - r)$ vs. $(r - K)$, we are able to more accurately determine total SFRs for our complete sample. At all redshifts, the relationship between median $SFR$ and $M_\ast$ follows a power-law at low stellar masses, and flattens to nearly constant SFR at high stellar masses. We describe a new parameterization that provides the best fit to the main sequence and characterizes the low mass power-law slope, turnover mass, and overall scaling. The turnover in the main sequence occurs at a characteristic mass of about $M_{0} \sim 10^{10} M_{\odot}$ at all redshifts. The low mass power-law slope ranges from 0.9-1.3 and the overall scaling rises in SFR as a function of $(1+z)^{4.12 \pm 0.10}$. A broken power-law fit below and above the turnover mass gives relationships of $SFR \propto M_{*}^{0.88 \pm 0.06}$ below the turnover mass and $SFR \propto M_{*}^{0.27 \pm 0.04}$ above the turnover mass. Galaxies more massive than $M_\ast \gtrsim 10^{10}\ M_{\rm \odot}$ have on average, a much lower specific star formation rate (sSFR) than would be expected by simply extrapolating the traditional linear fit to the main sequence found for less massive galaxies.Comment: 16 pages, 7 figures. Accepted for publication in Ap