Modelling out-of-area admissions

Out-of-area (OOA) placements occur when patients cannot be admitted to local facilities, which can be extremely stressful for patients and families. Thus, the Department of Health aims to eliminate the need for OOA admissions. Using data from a UK mental health trust we developed a ‘virtual mental health ward’ to evaluate the potential impact of referral rates and length of stay (LOS) on OOA rates. The results indicated OOA rates were equally sensitive to LOS and referral rate. This suggests that investment in community services that reduce both LOS and referral rates are required to meaningfully reduce OOA admission rates

Mental health trajectories in university students across the COVID-19 pandemic: findings from the Student Wellbeing at Northern England Universities prospective cohort study

IntroductionPsychological wellbeing in university students is receiving increased focus. However, to date, few longitudinal studies in this population have been conducted. As such, in 2019, we established the Student Wellbeing At Northern England Universities (SWANS) cohort at the University of York, United Kingdom aiming to measure student mental health and wellbeing every six months. Furthermore, the study period included the COVID-19 pandemic, giving an opportunity to track student wellbeing over time, including over the pandemic.MethodsEligible participants were invited to participate via email. Data were collected, using Qualtrics, from September 2019 to April 2021, across five waves (W1 to W5). In total, n = 4,622 students participated in at least one wave of the survey. Data collection included sociodemographic, educational, personality measures, and mental health and wellbeing. Latent profile analyses were performed, exploring trajectories of student wellbeing over the study period for those who had completed at least three of the five waves of the survey (n = 765), as measured by the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale (WEMWBS).ResultsFive latent profile trajectories of student wellbeing were identified. Of these, the two latent classes with initially higher wellbeing scores had broadly stable wellbeing across time (total n = 505, 66%). Two classes had lower initial scores, which lowered further across time (total n = 227, 30%). Additionally, a fifth class of students was identified who improved substantially over the study period, from a mean WEMWBS of 30.4 at W1, to 49.4 at W5 (n = 33, 4%). Risk factors for having less favourable wellbeing trajectories generally included identifying as LGBT+, self-declaring a disability, or previously being diagnosed with a mental health condition.ConclusionOur findings suggest a mixed picture of the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on student wellbeing, with a majority showing broadly consistent levels of wellbeing across time, a smaller but still substantial group showing a worsening of wellbeing, and a small group that showed a very marked improvement in wellbeing. Those from groups traditionally underrepresented in higher education were most at risk of poorer wellbeing. This raises questions as to whether future support for wellbeing should target specific student subpopulations

Can achievement at medical admission tests predict future performance in postgraduate clinical assessments? A UK-based national cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether scores on two undergraduate admissions tests (BioMedical Admissions Test (BMAT) and University Clinical Aptitude Test (UCAT)) predict performance on the postgraduate Membership of the Royal Colleges of Physicians (MRCP) examination, including the clinical examination Practical Assessment of Clinical Examination Skills (PACES). DESIGN: National cohort study. SETTING: Doctors who graduated medical school between 2006 and 2018. PARTICIPANTS: 3045 doctors who had sat BMAT, UCAT and the MRCP. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Passing each section of the MRCP at the first attempt, including the clinical assessment PACES. RESULTS: Several BMAT and UCAT subtest scores displayed incremental predictive validity for performance on the first two (written) parts of the MRCP. Only aptitude and skills on BMAT (OR 1.34, 1.08 to 1.67, p=0.01) and verbal reasoning on UCAT (OR 1.34, 1.04 to 1.71, p=0.02) incrementally predicted passing PACES at the first attempt. CONCLUSIONS: Our results imply that the abilities assessed by aptitude and skills and verbal reasoning may be the most important cognitive attributes, of those routinely assessed at selection, for predicting future clinical performance. Selectors may wish to consider placing particular weight on scales assessing these attributes if they wish to select applicants likely to become more competent clinicians. These results are potentially relevant in an international context too, since many admission tests used globally, such as the Medical College Admission Test, assess similar abilities

Knowledge and response to the COVID-19 pandemic in people with severe mental illness in Bangladesh and Pakistan:A cross-sectional survey

BACKGROUND: People with severe mental illnesses (SMIs) are likely to face disproportionate challenges during a pandemic. They may not receive or be able to respond to public health messages to prevent infection or to limit its spread. Additionally, they may be more severely affected, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: We conducted a telephone survey (May–June 2020) in a sample of 1,299 people with SMI who had attended national mental health institutes in Bangladesh and Pakistan before the pandemic. We collected information on top worries, socioeconomic impact of the pandemic, knowledge of COVID-19 (symptoms, prevention), and prevention-related practices (social distancing, hygiene). We explored the predictive value of socio-demographic and health-related variables for relative levels of COVID-19 knowledge and practice using regularized logistic regression models. FINDINGS: Mass media were the major source of information about COVID-19. Finances, employment, and physical health were the most frequently mentioned concerns. Overall, participants reported good knowledge and following advice. In Bangladesh, being female and higher levels of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) predicted poor and better knowledge, respectively, while in Pakistan being female predicted better knowledge. Receiving information from television predicted better knowledge in both countries. In Bangladesh, being female, accessing information from multiple media sources, and better HRQoL predicted better practice. In Pakistan, poorer knowledge of COVID-19 prevention measures predicted poorer practice. CONCLUSION: Our paper adds to the literature on people living with SMIs and their knowledge and practices relevant to COVID-19 prevention. Our results emphasize the importance of access to mass and social media for the dissemination of advice and that the likely gendered uptake of both knowledge and practice requires further attention

Predicting persistent depressive symptoms in older adults : a machine learning approach to personalised mental healthcare

Background Depression causes significant physical and psychosocial morbidity. Predicting persistence of depressive symptoms could permit targeted prevention, and lessen the burden of depression. Machine learning is a rapidly expanding field, and such approaches offer powerful predictive abilities. We investigated the utility of a machine learning approach to predict the persistence of depressive symptoms in older adults. Method Baseline demographic and psychometric data from 284 patients were used to predict the likelihood of older adults having persistent depressive symptoms after 12 months, using a machine learning approach (‘extreme gradient boosting’). Predictive performance was compared to a conventional statistical approach (logistic regression). Data were drawn from the ‘treatment-as-usual’ arm of the CASPER (CollAborative care and active surveillance for Screen-Positive EldeRs with subthreshold depression) trial. Results Predictive performance was superior using machine learning compared to logistic regression (mean AUC 0.72 vs. 0.67, p < 0.0001). Using machine learning, an average of 89% of those predicted to have PHQ-9 scores above threshold at 12 months, actually did, compared to 78% using logistic regression. However, mean negative predictive values were somewhat lower for the machine learning approach (45% vs. 35%). Limitations A relatively small sample size potentially limited the predictive power of the algorithm. In addition, PHQ-9 scores were used as an indicator of persistent depressive symptoms, and whilst well validated, a clinical interview would have been preferable. Conclusions : Overall, our findings support the potential application of machine learning in personalised mental healthcare. Keywords DepressionMachine learningOld age psychiatr

Predicting fitness to practise events in international medical graduates who registered as UK doctors via the Professional and Linguistic Assessments Board (PLAB) system: a national cohort study

Background International medical graduates working in the UK are more likely to be censured in relation to fitness to practise compared to home graduates. Performance on the General Medical Council’s (GMC’s) Professional and Linguistic Assessments Board (PLAB) tests and English fluency have previously been shown to predict later educational performance in this group of doctors. It is unknown whether the PLAB system is also a valid predictor of unprofessional behaviour and malpractice. The findings would have implications for regulatory policy. Methods This was an observational study linking data relating to fitness to practise events (referral or censure), PLAB performance, demographic variables and English language competence, as evaluated via the International English Language Test System (IELTS). Data from 27,330 international medical graduates registered with the GMC were analysed, including 210 doctors who had been sanctioned in relation to at least one fitness to practise issue. The main outcome was risk of eventual censure (including a warning). Results The significant univariable educational predictors of eventual censure (versus no censures or referrals) were lower PLAB part 1 (hazard ratio [HR], 0.99; 95% confidence interval, 0.98 to 1.00) and part 2 scores (HR, 0.94; 0.91 to 0.97) at first sitting, multiple attempts at both parts of the PLAB, lower IELTS reading (HR, 0.79; 0.65 to 0.94) and listening scores (HR, 0.76; 0.62 to 0.93) and higher IELTS speaking scores (HR, 1.28; 1.04 to 1.57). Multiple resits at either part of the PLAB and higher IELTS speaking score (HR, 1.49; 1.20 to 1.84) were also independent predictors of censure. We estimated that the proposed limit of four attempts at both parts of the PLAB would reduce the risk in this entire group by only approximately two censures per 5 years in this group of doctors. Conclusions Making the PLAB, or any replacement assessment, more stringent and raising the required standards of English reading and listening may result in fewer fitness to practice events in international medical graduates. However, the number of PLAB resits permitted would have to be further capped to meaningfully impact the risk of sanctions in this group of doctor

The use of phylogeny to interpret cross-cultural patterns in plant use and guide medicinal plant discovery: an example from Pterocarpus (Leguminosae)

The study of traditional knowledge of medicinal plants has led to discoveries that have helped combat diseases and improve healthcare. However, the development of quantitative measures that can assist our quest for new medicinal plants has not greatly advanced in recent years. Phylogenetic tools have entered many scientific fields in the last two decades to provide explanatory power, but have been overlooked in ethnomedicinal studies. Several studies show that medicinal properties are not randomly distributed in plant phylogenies, suggesting that phylogeny shapes ethnobotanical use. Nevertheless, empirical studies that explicitly combine ethnobotanical and phylogenetic information are scarce.In this study, we borrowed tools from community ecology phylogenetics to quantify significance of phylogenetic signal in medicinal properties in plants and identify nodes on phylogenies with high bioscreening potential. To do this, we produced an ethnomedicinal review from extensive literature research and a multi-locus phylogenetic hypothesis for the pantropical genus Pterocarpus (Leguminosae: Papilionoideae). We demonstrate that species used to treat a certain conditions, such as malaria, are significantly phylogenetically clumped and we highlight nodes in the phylogeny that are significantly overabundant in species used to treat certain conditions. These cross-cultural patterns in ethnomedicinal usage in Pterocarpus are interpreted in the light of phylogenetic relationships.This study provides techniques that enable the application of phylogenies in bioscreening, but also sheds light on the processes that shape cross-cultural ethnomedicinal patterns. This community phylogenetic approach demonstrates that similar ethnobotanical uses can arise in parallel in different areas where related plants are available. With a vast amount of ethnomedicinal and phylogenetic information available, we predict that this field, after further refinement of the techniques, will expand into similar research areas, such as pest management or the search for bioactive plant-based compounds

Using Land-Based Surveys to Assess Sea Duck Abundance and Behavior in Nearshore Waters of Southern New England, USA

Nearshore waters provide very important habitat for sea ducks (Tribe Mergini) during migration and winter, but gathering information on sea duck use of shallow nearshore waters is challenging because traditional aerial and boat-based surveys are expensive, are usually conducted infrequently, and are often not feasible near the coast. The objective of this study was to use land-based surveys to characterize spatiotemporal variation in the abundance and behavior (e.g., foraging, flying) of Common Eider (Somateria mollissima) and scoters (Melanitta spp.) in nearshore waters of southern New England. Surveys (60–120 min per survey, n = 1,044 surveys) were conducted throughout the day from February 2009 to July 2010 to assess diurnal and seasonal variation in sea duck behavior and spatial distribution at nine sites in southern Rhode Island. The density of sea ducks resting or foraging on the water exhibited little diurnal variation, whereas flight activity dramatically increased nearer to sunrise. Sea duck densities and passage rates (individuals/km2/hr) peaked during migration periods from October through November and February through April, although there were important seasonal differences between sites. For example, the highest densities of Common Eider during fall were in a protected estuary, whereas abundance of scoters during fall was greater at a coastal headland. The relative activity of Common Eider on the water and in flight was similar among sites, whereas scoters exhibited highly variable activity among sites, particularly during winter and spring. The spatiotemporal patterns in abundance and behavior of sea ducks in nearshore waters that we detected using land-based surveys provides essential, complementary information to that available from other types of waterfowl and seabird surveys in southern New England

Getting Acquainted with Kant

My question here concerns whether Kant claims that experience has nonconceptual content, or whether, on his view, experience is essentially conceptual. However there is a sense in which this debate concerning the content of intuition is ill-conceived. Part of this has to do with the terms in which the debate is set, and part to do with confusion over the connection between Kant’s own views and contemporary concerns in epistemology and the philosophy of mind. However, I think much of the substance of the debate concerning Kant’s views on the content of experience can be salvaged by reframing it in terms of a debate about the dependence relations, if any, that exist between different cognitive capacities. Below, in Section 2, I clarify the notion of ‘content’ I take to be at stake in the interpretive debate. Section 3 presents reasons for thinking that intuition cannot have content in the relevant sense. I then argue, in Section 4, that the debate be reframed in terms of dependence. We should distinguish between Intellectualism, according to which all objective representation (understood in a particular way) depends on acts of synthesis by the intellect, and Sensibilism, according to which at least some forms of objective representation are independent of any such acts (or the capacity for such acts). Finally, in Section 5, I further elucidate the cognitive role of intuition. I articulate a challenge which Kant understands alethic modal considerations to present for achieving cognition, and argue that a version of Sensibilism that construes intuition as a form of acquaintance is better positioned to answer this challenge than Intellectualism