Valuing Businesses In Cyclical Industries

Given the potential sensitivity of business values to industry business cycles, it is imperative that valuators consider business cycles when executing valuations of firms that tend to be sensitive to these industry-level fluctuations. Failure to consider earnings cycles in industries where they are significant can result in extreme over and undervaluation of business enterprises. The methods presented in this paper can help a valuation professional to utilize industry cycle information to dramatically improve the quality of value estimates

Dark Before Light: Testing the Cosmic Expansion History through the Cosmic Microwave Background

The cosmic expansion history proceeds in broad terms from a radiation dominated epoch to matter domination to an accelerated, dark energy dominated epoch. We investigate whether intermittent periods of acceleration are possible in the early universe -- between Big Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) and recombination and beyond. We establish that the standard picture is remarkably robust: observations of anisotropies in the cosmic microwave background exclude any extra period of accelerated expansion between 1 \leq z \lesssim 10^5 (corresponding to 5\times10^{-4}\ {\rm eV} \leq T \lesssim 25\ {\rm eV}).Comment: 7 pages, 5 figure

Preparing Your Business for Valuation

There is a tremendous need for the valuation of small businesses. Oftentimes, small businessowners do not have the wherewithal to gather the data and keep it up to date for use in situations that require valuation. Formal valuations are necessary because they provide objective evidence of value, in contrast to value set by markets on which public companies are traded. This article focuses on some factors that impact the valuation of the business and will help small businessowners feel more comfortable talking with financial professionals about how the business might be valued

A comparative technoeconomic analysis of renewable hydrogen production using solar energy

A technoeconomic analysis of photoelectrochemical (PEC) and photovoltaic-electrolytic (PV-E) solar-hydrogen production of 10 000 kg H_2 day^(−1) (3.65 kilotons per year) was performed to assess the economics of each technology, and to provide a basis for comparison between these technologies as well as within the broader energy landscape. Two PEC systems, differentiated primarily by the extent of solar concentration (unconcentrated and 10× concentrated) and two PV-E systems, differentiated by the degree of grid connectivity (unconnected and grid supplemented), were analyzed. In each case, a base-case system that used established designs and materials was compared to prospective systems that might be envisioned and developed in the future with the goal of achieving substantially lower overall system costs. With identical overall plant efficiencies of 9.8%, the unconcentrated PEC and non-grid connected PV-E system base-case capital expenses for the rated capacity of 3.65 kilotons H_2 per year were $205 MM ($293 per m^2 of solar collection area (m_S^(−2)), $14.7 W_(H2,P)^(−1)) and$260 MM ($371 m_S^(−2),$18.8 W_(H2,P)^(−1)), respectively. The untaxed, plant-gate levelized costs for the hydrogen product (LCH) were $11.4 kg^(−1) and$12.1 kg^(−1) for the base-case PEC and PV-E systems, respectively. The 10× concentrated PEC base-case system capital cost was $160 MM ($428 m_S^(−2), $11.5 W_(H2,P)^(−1)) and for an efficiency of 20$9.2 kg^(−1). Likewise, the grid supplemented base-case PV-E system capital cost was $66 MM ($441 m_S^(−2), $11.5 W_(H2,P)^(−1)), and with solar-to-hydrogen and grid electrolysis system efficiencies of 9.8$6.1 kg^(−1). As a benchmark, a proton-exchange membrane (PEM) based grid-connected electrolysis system was analyzed. Assuming a system efficiency of 61% and a grid electricity cost of $0.07 kWh^(−1), the LCH was$5.5 kg^(−1). A sensitivity analysis indicated that, relative to the base-case, increases in the system efficiency could effect the greatest cost reductions for all systems, due to the areal dependencies of many of the components. The balance-of-systems (BoS) costs were the largest factor in differentiating the PEC and PV-E systems. No single or combination of technical advancements based on currently demonstrated technology can provide sufficient cost reductions to allow solar hydrogen to directly compete on a levelized cost basis with hydrogen produced from fossil energy. Specifically, a cost of CO_2 greater than ∼$800 (ton CO_2)^(−1) was estimated to be necessary for base-case PEC hydrogen to reach price parity with hydrogen derived from steam reforming of methane priced at$12 GJ^(−1) ($1.39 (kg H_2)^(−1)). A comparison with low CO_2 and CO_2-neutral energy sources indicated that base-case PEC hydrogen is not currently cost-competitive with electrolysis using electricity supplied by nuclear power or from fossil-fuels in conjunction with carbon capture and storage. Solar electricity production and storage using either batteries or PEC hydrogen technologies are currently an order of magnitude greater in cost than electricity prices with no clear advantage to either battery or hydrogen storage as of yet. Significant advances in PEC technology performance and system cost reductions are necessary to enable cost-effective PEC-derived solar hydrogen for use in scalable grid-storage applications as well as for use as a chemical feedstock precursor to CO_2-neutral high energy-density transportation fuels. Hence such applications are an opportunity for foundational research to contribute to the development of disruptive approaches to solar fuels generation systems that can offer higher performance at much lower cost than is provided by current embodiments of solar fuels generators. Efforts to directly reduce CO_2 photoelectrochemically or electrochemically could potentially produce products with higher value than hydrogen, but many, as yet unmet, challenges include catalytic efficiency and selectivity, and CO_2 mass transport rates and feedstock cost. Major breakthroughs are required to obtain viable economic costs for solar hydrogen production, but the barriers to achieve cost-competitiveness with existing large-scale thermochemical processes for CO_2 reduction are even greater

Activated lymphocyte recruitment into the tumor microenvironment following preoperative sipuleucel-T for localized prostate cancer.

BackgroundSipuleucel-T is a US Food and Drug Administration-approved immunotherapy for asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Its mechanism of action is not fully understood. This prospective trial evaluated the direct immune effects of systemically administered sipuleucel-T on prostatic cancer tissue in the preoperative setting.MethodsPatients with untreated localized prostate cancer were treated on an open-label Phase II study of sipuleucel-T prior to planned radical prostatectomy (RP). Immune infiltrates in RP specimens (posttreatment) and in paired pretreatment biopsies were evaluated by immunohistochemistry (IHC). Correlations between circulating immune response and IHC were assessed using Spearman rank order.ResultsOf the 42 enrolled patients, 37 were evaluable. Adverse events were primarily transient, mild-to-moderate and infusion related. Patients developed T cell proliferation and interferon-γ responses detectable in the blood following treatment. Furthermore, a greater-than-three-fold increase in infiltrating CD3(+), CD4(+) FOXP3(-), and CD8(+) T cells was observed in the RP tissues compared with the pretreatment biopsy (binomial proportions: all P < .001). This level of T cell infiltration was observed at the tumor interface, and was not seen in a control group consisting of 12 concurrent patients who did not receive any neoadjuvant treatment prior to RP. The majority of infiltrating T cells were PD-1(+) and Ki-67(+), consistent with activated T cells. Importantly, the magnitude of the circulating immune response did not directly correlate with T cell infiltration within the prostate based upon Spearman's rank order correlation.ConclusionsThis study is the first to demonstrate a local immune effect from the administration of sipuleucel-T. Neoadjuvant sipuleucel-T elicits both a systemic antigen-specific T cell response and the recruitment of activated effector T cells into the prostate tumor microenvironment

Geochemical Logging in the Cajon Pass Drill Hole and Its Application to a New, Oxide, Igneous Rock Classification Scheme

A new elemental oxide classification scheme for crystalline rocks is developed and applied to geochemical well logs from the Cajon Pass drill hole. This classification scheme takes advantage of measurements of elements taken by a geochemical logging tool string. It uses K_2O versus SiO_2/Al_2O_3 to distinguish between granites, granodiorites, tonalites, syenites, monzonites, diorites, and gabbros. Oxide measurements from cores are used to calibrate the elemental abundances determined from the well logs. From these logs, a detailed lithologic column of the core is generated. The lithologic column derived from the well log classification scheme is compared with a lithologic column constructed from core samples and well cuttings. In the upper 1295 m of the well, agreement between the two columns is good. Discrepancies occur from 1295 to 2073 m and are believed to be caused by the occurrence of rock types not distinguished by the classification scheme and/or the occurrence of secondary minerals. Despite these discrepancies, the well log-based classification scheme helps to distinguish changes in rock type and shows potential as an aid to the construction of lithologic columns in boreholes of crystalline rocks

3.6 and 4.5 μm Phase Curves and Evidence for Non-equilibrium Chemistry in the Atmosphere of Extrasolar Planet HD 189733b

We present new, full-orbit observations of the infrared phase variations of the canonical hot Jupiter HD 189733b obtained in the 3.6 and 4.5 μm bands using the Spitzer Space Telescope. When combined with previous phase curve observations at 8.0 and 24 μm, these data allow us to characterize the exoplanet's emission spectrum as a function of planetary longitude and to search for local variations in its vertical thermal profile and atmospheric composition. We utilize an improved method for removing the effects of intrapixel sensitivity variations and robustly extracting phase curve signals from these data, and we calculate our best-fit parameters and uncertainties using a wavelet-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis that accounts for the presence of time-correlated noise in our data. We measure a phase curve amplitude of 0.1242% ± 0.0061% in the 3.6 μm band and 0.0982% ± 0.0089% in the 4.5 μm band, corresponding to brightness temperature contrasts of 503 ± 21 K and 264 ± 24 K, respectively. We find that the times of minimum and maximum flux occur several hours earlier than predicted for an atmosphere in radiative equilibrium, consistent with the eastward advection of gas by an equatorial super-rotating jet. The locations of the flux minima in our new data differ from our previous observations at 8 μm, and we present new evidence indicating that the flux minimum observed in the 8 μm is likely caused by an overshooting effect in the 8 μm array. We obtain improved estimates for HD 189733b's dayside planet-star flux ratio of 0.1466% ± 0.0040% in the 3.6 μm band and 0.1787% ± 0.0038% in the 4.5 μm band, corresponding to brightness temperatures of 1328 ± 11 K and 1192 ± 9 K, respectively; these are the most accurate secondary eclipse depths obtained to date for an extrasolar planet. We compare our new dayside and nightside spectra for HD 189733b to the predictions of one-dimensional radiative transfer models from Burrows et al. and conclude that fits to this planet's dayside spectrum provide a reasonably accurate estimate of the amount of energy transported to the night side. Our 3.6 and 4.5 μm phase curves are generally in good agreement with the predictions of general circulation models for this planet from Showman et al., although we require either excess drag or slower rotation rates in order to match the locations of the measured maxima and minima in the 4.5, 8.0, and 24 μm bands. We find that HD 189733b's 4.5 μm nightside flux is 3.3σ smaller than predicted by these models, which assume that the chemistry is in local thermal equilibrium. We conclude that this discrepancy is best explained by vertical mixing, which should lead to an excess of CO and correspondingly enhanced 4.5 μm absorption in this region. This result is consistent with our constraints on the planet's transmission spectrum, which also suggest excess absorption in the 4.5 μm band at the day-night terminator

Atmospheric Characterization of the Hot Jupiter Kepler-13Ab

Kepler-13Ab (= KOI-13.01) is a unique transiting hot Jupiter. It is one of very few known short-period planets orbiting a hot A-type star, making it one of the hottest planets currently known. The availability of Kepler data allows us to measure the planet's occultation (secondary eclipse) and phase curve in the optical, which we combine with occultations observed by warm Spitzer at 4.5 mic and 3.6 mic and a ground-based occultation observation in the Ks band (2.1 mic). We derive a day-side hemisphere temperature of 2,750 +- 160 K as the effective temperature of a black body showing the same occultation depths. Comparing the occultation depths with one-dimensional planetary atmosphere models suggests the presence of an atmospheric temperature inversion. Our analysis shows evidence for a relatively high geometric albedo, Ag= 0.33 +0.04 -0.06. While measured with a simplistic method, a high Ag is supported also by the fact that the one-dimensional atmosphere models underestimate the occultation depth in the optical. We use stellar spectra to determine the dilution, in the four wide bands where occultation was measured, due to the visual stellar binary companion 1.15 +- 0.05" away. The revised stellar parameters measured using these spectra are combined with other measurements leading to revised planetary mass and radius estimates of Mp = 4.94 - 8.09 Mjup and Rp = 1.406 +- 0.038 Rjup. Finally, we measure a Kepler mid-occultation time that is 34.0 +- 6.9 s earlier than expected based on the mid-transit time and the delay due to light travel time, and discuss possible scenarios.Comment: V2: Accepted to ApJ on 2014 April 11. Spitzer photometry and model fitting Matlab pipeline code is publicly available at: http://gps.caltech.edu/~shporer/spitzerphot