A crisis for the future of forensic science: Lessons from the UK of the importance of epistemology for funding research and development

This study presents analysis of forensic science research funded by UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) research councils (2009–2018), representing 150 projects with a cumulative value of £56.1 m (0.01% of the total UKRI budget over this time period). The findings indicate that dedicated forensic science funding represents only 46.0% of the projects included in the dataset. Research focussed on developing technological outputs represented 69.5% of the total funding (£37.2 m) in comparison to foundational research which represented 19.2% (£10.7 m). Traditional forensic science evidence types such as fingerprints and DNA received 1.3% and 5.1% of the total funding respectively, in comparison to digital and cyber projects which received 25.7%. These data offer insight into the scale of the funding crisis in forensic science in the UK, and the need to increase the resources available, to develop ways of articulating value and to ensure that both technological and foundational research are enabled

A Comparison of Thresholding Methods for Forensic Reconstruction Studies Using Fluorescent Powder Proxies for Trace Materials

Image segmentation is a fundamental precursor to quantitative image analysis. At present, no standardised methodology exists for segmenting images of fluorescent proxies for trace evidence. Experiments evaluated (i) whether manual segmentation is reproducible within and between examiners (with three participants repeatedly tracing three images) (ii) whether manually defining a threshold level offers accurate and reproducible results (with 20 examiners segmenting 10 images), and (iii) whether a global thresholding algorithm might perform with similar accuracy, while offering improved reproducibility and efficiency (16 algorithms tested). Statistically significant differences were seen between examiners' traced outputs. Manually thresholding produced good accuracy on average (within ±1% of the expected values), but poor reproducibility (with multiple outliers). Three algorithms (Yen, MaxEntropy, and RenyiEntropy) offered similar accuracy, with improved reproducibility and efficiency. Together, these findings suggest that appropriate algorithms could perform thresholding tasks as part of a robust workflow for reconstruction studies employing fluorescent proxies for trace evidence

Antibiotic control of antibiotic resistance in hospitals: a simulation study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Using mathematical deterministic models of the epidemiology of hospital-acquired infections and antibiotic resistance, it has been shown that the rates of hospital-acquired bacterial infection and frequency of antibiotic infections can be reduced by (i) restricting the admission of patients colonized with resistant bacteria, (ii) increasing the rate of turnover of patients, (iii) reducing transmission by infection control measures, and (iv) the use of second-line drugs for which there is no resistance. In an effort to explore the generality and robustness of the predictions of these deterministic models to the real world of hospitals, where there is variation in all of the factors contributing to the incidence of infection, we developed and used a stochastic model of the epidemiology of hospital-acquired infections and resistance. In our analysis of the properties of this model we give particular consideration different regimes of using second-line drugs in this process.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We developed a simple model that describes the transmission of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant bacteria in a small hospital. Colonized patients may be treated with a standard drug, for which there is some resistance, and with a second-line drug, for which there is no resistance. We then ran deterministic and stochastic simulation programs, based on this model, to predict the effectiveness of various treatment strategies.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results of the analysis using our stochastic model support the predictions of the deterministic models; not only will the implementation of any of the above listed measures substantially reduce the incidences of hospital-acquired infections and the frequency of resistance, the effects of their implementation should be seen in months rather than the years or decades anticipated to control resistance in open communities. How effectively and how rapidly the application of second-line drugs will contribute to the decline in the frequency of resistance to the first-line drugs depends on how these drugs are administered. The earlier the switch to second-line drugs, the more effective this protocol will be. Switching to second-line drugs at random is more effective than switching after a defined period or only after there is direct evidence that the patient is colonized with bacteria resistant to the first antibiotic.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The incidence of hospital-acquired bacterial infections and frequencies of antibiotic resistant bacteria can be markedly and rapidly reduced by different readily implemented procedures. The efficacy using second line drugs to achieve these ends depends on the protocol used for their administration.</p

Epidemic Enhancement in Partially Immune Populations

We observe that a pathogen introduce/pmcdata/journal/plosone/2-2007/1/ingest/pmcmod/sgml/pone.0000165.xmld into a population containing individuals with acquired immunity can result in an epidemic longer in duration and/or larger in size than if the pathogen were introduced into a naive population. We call this phenomenon “epidemic enhancement,” and use simple dynamical models to show that it is a realistic scenario within the parameter ranges of many common infectious diseases. This finding implies that repeated pathogen introduction or intermediate levels of vaccine coverage can lead to pathogen persistence in populations where extinction would otherwise be expected

Conventional and unconventional participation in Latin America: a hierarchical latent class approach

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Cambridge University Press via the DOI in this recordBuilding on past research, we implement a hierarchical latent class model to analyze political participation from a comparative perspective. Our methodology allows simultaneously: (i) estimating citizens’ propensity to engage in conventional and unconventional modes of participation; (ii) classifying individuals into underlying “types” capturing within- and cross-country variations in participation; and (iii) assessing how this classification varies with micro- and macro-level factors. We apply our model to Latin American survey data. We show that our method outperforms alternative approaches used to study participation and derive typologies of political engagement. Substantively, we find that the distribution of participatory types is similar throughout the continent, and that it correlates strongly with respondents’ socio-demographic characteristics and crime victimization

Multiple microvessels extending from the coronary arteries to the left ventricle in a middle aged female presenting with ischaemic chest pain: a case report

Possible ischaemic chest pain presentations are exceedingly common. Angiographic triage of clinical, electrocardiographic or biomarker positive presentations is increasingly feasible with the expansion of cardiac catheterization facilities. This management pattern often extends to problem patients with negative biomarker screens whose symptoms appear unstable. With invasive triage even very rare congenital or developmental coronary anomalies will be more frequently recognized although their relationship to ischaemia can be confounded by association. In this a case we report a woman with widespread direct coro-ventricular micro-channel formation across the heart and an ischaemic presentation, despite angiographically normal epicoronary vessels. This pattern, while very rare, needs to be recognized as one possible phenotype in this very common clinical presentation

Nasty Viruses, Costly Plasmids, Population Dynamics, and the Conditions for Establishing and Maintaining CRISPR-Mediated Adaptive Immunity in Bacteria

Clustered, Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPR) abound in the genomes of almost all archaebacteria and nearly half the eubacteria sequenced. Through a genetic interference mechanism, bacteria with CRISPR regions carrying copies of the DNA of previously encountered phage and plasmids abort the replication of phage and plasmids with these sequences. Thus it would seem that protection against infecting phage and plasmids is the selection pressure responsible for establishing and maintaining CRISPR in bacterial populations. But is it? To address this question and provide a framework and hypotheses for the experimental study of the ecology and evolution of CRISPR, I use mathematical models of the population dynamics of CRISPR-encoding bacteria with lytic phage and conjugative plasmids. The results of the numerical (computer simulation) analysis of the properties of these models with parameters in the ranges estimated for Escherichia coli and its phage and conjugative plasmids indicate: (1) In the presence of lytic phage there are broad conditions where bacteria with CRISPR-mediated immunity will have an advantage in competition with non-CRISPR bacteria with otherwise higher Malthusian fitness. (2) These conditions for the existence of CRISPR are narrower when there is envelope resistance to the phage. (3) While there are situations where CRISPR-mediated immunity can provide bacteria an advantage in competition with higher Malthusian fitness bacteria bearing deleterious conjugative plasmids, the conditions for this to obtain are relatively narrow and the intensity of selection favoring CRISPR weak. The parameters of these models can be independently estimated, the assumption behind their construction validated, and the hypotheses generated from the analysis of their properties tested in experimental populations of bacteria with lytic phage and conjugative plasmids. I suggest protocols for estimating these parameters and outline the design of experiments to evaluate the validity of these models and test these hypotheses

The antisaccade task as an index of sustained goal activation in working memory: modulation by nicotine

The antisaccade task provides a laboratory analogue of situations in which execution of the correct behavioural response requires the suppression of a more prepotent or habitual response. Errors (failures to inhibit a reflexive prosaccade towards a sudden onset target) are significantly increased in patients with damage to the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and patients with schizophrenia. Recent models of antisaccade performance suggest that errors are more likely to occur when the intention to initiate an antisaccade is insufficiently activated within working memory. Nicotine has been shown to enhance specific working memory processes in healthy adults. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We explored the effect of nicotine on antisaccade performance in a large sample (N = 44) of young adult smokers. Minimally abstinent participants attended two test sessions and were asked to smoke one of their own cigarettes between baseline and retest during one session only. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: Nicotine reduced antisaccade errors and correct antisaccade latencies if delivered before optimum performance levels are achieved, suggesting that nicotine supports the activation of intentions in working memory during task performance. The implications of this research for current theoretical accounts of antisaccade performance, and for interpreting the increased rate of antisaccade errors found in some psychiatric patient groups are discussed

Mobility promotes and jeopardizes biodiversity in rock-paper-scissors games

Biodiversity is essential to the viability of ecological systems. Species diversity in ecosystems is promoted by cyclic, non-hierarchical interactions among competing populations. Such non-transitive relations lead to an evolution with central features represented by the `rock-paper-scissors' game, where rock crushes scissors, scissors cut paper, and paper wraps rock. In combination with spatial dispersal of static populations, this type of competition results in the stable coexistence of all species and the long-term maintenance of biodiversity. However, population mobility is a central feature of real ecosystems: animals migrate, bacteria run and tumble. Here, we observe a critical influence of mobility on species diversity. When mobility exceeds a certain value, biodiversity is jeopardized and lost. In contrast, below this critical threshold all subpopulations coexist and an entanglement of travelling spiral waves forms in the course of temporal evolution. We establish that this phenomenon is robust, it does not depend on the details of cyclic competition or spatial environment. These findings have important implications for maintenance and evolution of ecological systems and are relevant for the formation and propagation of patterns in excitable media, such as chemical kinetics or epidemic outbreaks.Comment: Final submitted version; the printed version can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature06095 Supplementary movies are available at http://www.theorie.physik.uni-muenchen.de/lsfrey/images_content/movie1.AVI and http://www.theorie.physik.uni-muenchen.de/lsfrey/images_content/movie2.AV

Programmability of Chemical Reaction Networks

Motivated by the intriguing complexity of biochemical circuitry within individual cells we study Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks (SCRNs), a formal model that considers a set of chemical reactions acting on a finite number of molecules in a well-stirred solution according to standard chemical kinetics equations. SCRNs have been widely used for describing naturally occurring (bio)chemical systems, and with the advent of synthetic biology they become a promising language for the design of artificial biochemical circuits. Our interest here is the computational power of SCRNs and how they relate to more conventional models of computation. We survey known connections and give new connections between SCRNs and Boolean Logic Circuits, Vector Addition Systems, Petri Nets, Gate Implementability, Primitive Recursive Functions, Register Machines, Fractran, and Turing Machines. A theme to these investigations is the thin line between decidable and undecidable questions about SCRN behavior