Every Story Has a Beginning, Middle, and an End (But Not Always in That Order): Predicting Duration Dynamics in a Unified Framework

There are three fundamental duration dynamics of civil conflicts: time until conflict onset, conflict duration, and time until conflict recurrence. Theoretical and empirical models of war usually focus on one or at most two aspects of these three important duration dynamics. We present a new split-population seemingly unrelated duration estimator that treats pre-conflict duration, conflict duration, and post-conflict duration as interdependent processes thus permitting improved predictions about the onset, duration, and recurrence of civil conflict. Our findings provide support for the more fundamental idea that prediction is dependent on a good approximation of the theoretically implied underlying data-generating process. In addition, we account for the fact that some countries might never experience these duration dynamics or become immune after experiencing them in the past

Born Weak, Growing Strong: Anti-Government Protests as a Signal of Rebel Strength in the Context of Civil Wars

All rebel organizations start weak, but how do they grow and achieve favorable conflict outcomes? We present a theoretical model that allows for rebel organizations to gain support beyond their "core" and build their bargaining power during fighting. We highlight that rebel organizations need to win over crucial parts of society to generate the necessary support that allows them to attain favorable civil conflict outcomes. We find empirical support for the argument that low-income individuals who initially fight the government (rebel organizations) have to convince middle-class individuals to turn out against the government to gain government concessions. Empirically, we demonstrate that government concessions in the form of peace agreements and the onset of negotiations become more likely when protest occurs in the context of civil conflicts

Small fiber neuropathy associated with hyperlipidemia: utility of cutaneous silent periods and autonomic tests

Background. Established electrophysiological methods have limited clinical utility in the diagnosis of small fiber neuropathy.Thecutaneous silent period (CSP) may be useful as a method for the evaluation of smaller and unmyelinated fiber dysfunctions.Hyperlipidemia is a very rare cause of small fiber neuropathy. In this study, hyperlipidemia and small fiber neuropathy insymptomatic patients with normal nerve conduction studies were evaluated with autonomic tests and cutaneous silent periods.Methods. Twenty-five patients with clinically suspected small fiber neuropathy and 23 healthy volunteerswere included. CSP latencyand duration, as well as CSP latency difference of the upper and lower extremities, were examined. Two tests were used to assess theautonomic nervous system, namely, the R-R interval variation test in basal and profound breath conditions and the sympatheticskin response. Results. Twenty-five patients with clinically suspected small fiber neuropathy and normal nerve conduction studieswere compared with 23 controls. In the upper extremities, patients had prolonged CSP latencies (?? = 0.034) and shortened CSPdurations (?? = 0.039), whereas in the lower extremities, patients had shortened CSP durations (?? = 0.001). The expiration-toinspirationratios were also reduced in patients groups. There was no significant difference between sympathetic skin responselatencies and amplitude of the case and control groups. Conclusion. Our findings indicate that CSP may become a useful techniquefor the assessment of small fiber neuropathy in hyperlipidemic patients

The management of neurological disease during the COVID-19 pandemia

In this current pandemic period, neurological disorders are the most devastating disease group among all disease groups considered which created the highest health burden for patients, their relatives, and healthcare workers which keeps increasing with aging world population. COVID-19 directly invades lungs, it also involves the nervous system. However, it is too early to know whether COVID-19 will have long-term impacts on patients with neurologic disease. The COVID-19 pandemic has changed people’s daily routines, and it all happened in a short period. Neurologists are affected negatively by the COVID-19 pandemic in a few key ways, including: a reduced ability on admission or transfer of critically ill neurologic patients. During these exceptional times,a huge need arose for neurologists in the frontline and expected to be aware of and conscious for diagnosing neurological complications of COVID-19. In this process, the use of telemedicine (teleneurology) in the field of neurology is a significant approach to evaluate patients. Telemedicine has been used as a platform for rehabilitation,neurological examinations,neuropsychologyand other specialty services. Management of neurological diseases such as Parkinson disease, multiple sclerosis, intracranial infections, epilepsy, dementia, headache, neuromuscular diseases, and stroke had been affected in this process. In this review article, the main goal is to discuss how the diagnosis, proper management of people with existing neurological disease during pandemia period

An unusual case of subclinical peripheral neuropathy and cervical spondylosis in atopic myelitis

Many cases of atopic myelitis have been reported in Japan; however very few were described in western countries. An 82-yearold woman with a past medical history of atopic dermatitis and asthma presented with progressive paresthesia (tingling) of both hands and tetraparesis. Before the onset of neurological symptoms, she complained of ichthyosis of both legs for 5 weeks.Magnetic resonance imaging demonstratedmultisegmental degenerative arthritis, degenerative disc disease, and abnormal spinal cord signal intensity over several cervical segments, suggesting the diagnosis of myelitis. Total serum IgE level was elevated. Nerve conduction studies revealed asymmetric axonal sensorimotor neuropathy. The cerebrospinal fluid specimen showed lymphocytic pleocytosis and elevated protein level. Based on clinical, imaging, and laboratory findings, atopic myelitis was diagnosed. The diagnosis of atopic myelitis should be considered in myelopathy patients with history of atopy and elevated serum IgE levels

Epilepsi tanısıyla takip edilen hastada atrioventriküler blok

[No Abstract Available

Ovarian reserve assesment in patients withmultiple sclerosis

Annual Meeting of the American-Society-for-Reproductive-Medicine (ASRM 2010)American Society for Reproductive Medicin

Latencies to first interictal epileptiform discharges in different seizure types during video-EEG monitoring

Purpose: Interictal epileptiform discharges (IEDs) have high diagnostic value concerning patients with epilepsy and the instances of obtaining IEDs increase with longer recording times. However, the merit of a single, extended electroencephalography (EEG) recording in detecting IEDs has not been substantiated. We aimed to determine the optimal duration of an EEG required to diagnose epilepsy in different seizure types. Methods: Overall, 84 patients—29 with generalised onset epilepsy and 55 with focal onset epilepsy—were evaluated. Long-term video electroencephalographic monitoring (VEM) was analysed to find the first definite IED besides assessing the first seizure and latency. Results: The median latency of the first IED (12 min, ranging from 1 to 440 min vs. 55 min, ranging from 2 to 7500 min; p= 0.014) and the median duration of a VEM recording (2 d, ranging from 1 to 10 d vs. 3 d, ranging from 1 to 10 d; p= 0.012) were found significantly lower in the generalised epilepsy group compared with that in the focal epilepsy group. Conclusions: Generalised onset epilepsy showed a significantly shorter latency to IED and VEM duration compared with focal onset epilepsy. In our data set, all the patients with generalised onset epilepsy had interictal IED within 10 h, but the patients with focal onset epilepsy required monitoring for three days to obtain IED

Urgent and elective proctologic/anorectal interventions in the COVID-19 pandemic: A practical guideline for treatment safety

This article aims to give practical information and concrete suggestions on what should be considered in emergency, semi-urgent and elective settings for common anorectal diseases in the hectic period of the COVID-19 pandemic, based on early results of a series of anorectal interventions

COVID-19 in pediatric nephrology centers in Turkey

Background/aim: There is limited data on COVID-19 disease in children with kidney disease. We aimed to investigate the characteristics and prognosis of COVID-19 in pediatric nephrology patients in Turkey. Materials and methods: This was a national, multicenter, retrospective cohort study based on an online survey evaluating the data between 11th March 2020 and 11th March 2021 as an initial step of a detailed pediatric nephrology COVID-19 registry. Results: Two hundred and three patients (89 girls and 114 boys) were diagnosed with COVID-19. One-third of these patients (36.9%) were between 10–15 years old. Half of the patients were on kidney replacement therapy: kidney transplant (KTx) recipients (n = 56, 27.5%), patients receiving chronic hemodialysis (n = 33, 16.3%) and those on peritoneal dialysis (PD) (n = 18, 8.9%). Fifty-four (26.6%) children were asymptomatic. Eighty-two (40.3%) patients were hospitalized and 23 (28%) needed intensive care unit admission. Fifty-five percent of the patients were not treated, while the remaining was given favipiravir (20.7%), steroid (16.3%), and hydroxychloroquine (11.3%). Acute kidney injury developed in 19.5% of hospitalized patients. Five (2.4%) had MIS-C. Eighty-three percent of the patients were discharged without any apparent sequelae, while 7 (3.4%) died. One hundred and eight health care staff were infected during the study period. Conclusion: COVID-19 was most commonly seen in patients who underwent KTx and received HD. The combined immunosuppressive therapy and frequent exposure to the hospital setting may increase these patients’ susceptibility. Staff infections before vaccination era were alarming, various precautions should be taken for infection control, particularly optimal vaccination coverage