Does Human Capital Protect Workers against Exogenous Shocks? South Africa in the 2008-2009 Crisis

The financial and economic crisis of 2008 and 2009 has taken its toll on the South African economy. The economy contracted for the first time since 1998, and entered recession during the fourth quarter of 2008. The GDP contraction was soon transmitted to the labor market. Between the second quarters of 2008 and 2009, employment fell by 3.8 percent. However, not all individuals were hit with the same intensity. Using labor force survey data unique in the African context, we find that human capital provided a buffer against the shock. After controlling for observable characteristics, education and experience showed the potential to entirely offset the effect of the recession on the likelihood of employment. This has important policy implications, as it strengthens the case for strategic investments in human capital, and helps identifying the unskilled as those with the highest need for social safety net interventions during the recession.labor markets, South Africa, financial crisis, human capital, business cycle, emerging economies

Working Paper 106 - Does Human Capital Protect Workers against Exogenous Shocks? South Africa in the 2008 - 2009 Crisis

The financial and economic crisis of 2008and 2009 has taken its toll on the SouthAfrican economy. The economy contractedfor the first time since 1998, and enteredrecession during the fourth quarter of 2008.The GDP contraction was soon transmittedto the labor market. Between the secondquarters of 2008 and 2009, employment fellby 3.8 percent. However, not all individualswere hit with the same intensity. Using laborforce survey data unique in the Africancontext, we find that human capital provideda buffer against the shock. After controllingfor observable characteristics, education andexperience showed the potential to entirelyoffset the effect of the recession on thelikelihood of employment. This has importantpolicy implications, as it strengthens thecase for strategic investments in humancapital, and helps identifying the unskilled asthose with the highest need for social safetynet interventions during the recession.

Deflation and the international Great Depression: a productivity puzzle

This paper presents a dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium study of the causes of the international Great Depression. We use a fully articulated model to assess the relative contributions of deflation/monetary shocks, which are the most commonly cited shocks for the Depression, and productivity shocks. We find that productivity is the dominant shock, accounting for about 2/3 of the Depression, with the monetary shock accounting for about 1/3. The main reason deflation doesn't account for more of the Depression is because there is no systematic relationship between deflation and output during this period. Our finding that a persistent productivity shock is the key factor stands in contrast to the conventional view that a continuing sequence of unexpected deflation shocks was the major cause of the Depression. We also explore what factors might be causing the productivity shocks. We find some evidence that they are largely related to industrial activity, rather than agricultural activity, and that they are correlated with real exchange rates and non-deflationary shocks to the financial sector.Depressions ; Deflation (Finance) ; Production (Economic theory)

How Large Is the Private Sector in Africa? Evidence from National Accounts and Labor Markets

In recent years, the private sector has been recognized as a key engine of Africa's economic development. Yet, the most simple and fundamental question remains unanswered: how large is the African private sector? We present novel estimates of the size of the private sector in 50 African countries derived from the analysis of national accounts and labor market data. Our results point to a relatively large size of the African private sector. National account data shows that this accounts for about 2/3 of total investments, 4/5 of total consumption and 3/4 of total credit. In relative terms, large private sector countries are concentrated in Western Africa (Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Niger, Senegal and Togo), Central Africa (Cameroun, Republic of Congo) and Eastern Africa (Kenya, Sudan, Uganda and Tanzania), with the addition of Mauritius. Countries with small private sectors include a sample of oil-exporters (Algeria, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Libya and Nigeria), some of the poorest countries in the continent (Burundi, Burkina Faso, Guinea Bissau, Mali and Sao Tome e Principe), Zambia and Botswana. Over the last ten years, the size of the private sector has been contracting significantly in oil exporting countries, although the variation in its size does not appear to be significantly correlated with growth performance. Labor market data reinforces the idea of a large private sector, which provides about 90% of total employment opportunities. However, most of this labor is informal and characterized by low productivity: permanent wage jobs in the private sector account on average for only 10% of total employment (a share similar to that provided by public administration and state owned enterprises). South Africa is the notable exception, with formal wage employment in the private sector representing 46% of total employment. Finally, we find evidence of negative private sector earning premiums, suggesting that market distortions abound. These are likely to prevent the efficient allocation of human resources, and to reduce the overall productivity of the African economies.private sector size, private sector development, private consumption, private investment, national accounts, private sector employment, private sector earnings, labor markets, Africa

A Case of Beare-Stevenson Syndrome with Unusual Manifestations

Case series Patient: - Final Diagnosis: Beare-Stevenson syndrome Symptoms: - Medication: - Clinical Procedure: Genetic analysis Specialty: Pediatrics and Neonatology Objective: Rare disease Background: Beare-Stevenson syndrome (BSS) is an extremely rare genetic disorder, with fewer than 25 cases reported worldwide. This autosomal dominant syndrome has been linked to two mutations in the fibroblast growth factor receptor 2 gene (FGFR2), Tyr375Cys and Ser372Cys, both causing amino acid changes. Case Report: BSS is characterized by a range of morphological features, some more classically associated than others, of which craniosynostosis has been almost uniformly present. Other common features include cutis gyrata, acanthosis nigricans, ear and eye defects, skin/mucosal tissue tags, prominent umbilical stump, and anogenital anomalies. This account reports what we believe to be the 25th case of BSS, and exhibits a constellation of the characteristic features similar to those previously described, including the presence of cutis gyrata, proptosis, a bifid scrotum, and hypospadias. However, craniosynostosis was not detected prenatally by ultrasound or at birth. Prenatal ultrasound may detect some dysmorphic features of BSS. Many of these features have also been associated with other genetic disorders with overlapping phenotypes. Our case presented with the unusual features of a natal tooth and absence of craniosynostosis at birth. At birth, a diagnosis of BSS was suspected based on clinical features despite the absence of craniosynostosis. This was later confirmed with the use of molecular analysis, revealing a Tyr375Cys mutation of exon 9 of the FGFR2 gene. Conclusions: We suggest that a normal antenatal ultrasound scan and the absence of craniosynostosis at birth should not preclude further workup for BSS if this possibility is clinically suspected

Aspects of Relativistic Sum Rules

The status of our understanding of relativistic sum rules is reviewed. The recent development of new theoretical methods for the evaluation of these sum rules offers hope for further advances in this challenging field. These new techniques are described, along with a discussion of the source of difficulties inherent in such relativistic calculations. A connection is pointed out between certain sum rules for atomic interactions with charged particles and those for interactions with photons.Comment: 32 pages, accepted for publication in Advances in Quantum Chemistr

A comparison of early versus late initiation of renal replacement therapy in critically ill patients with acute kidney injury: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract Introduction Our aim was to investigate the impact of early versus late initiation of renal replacement therapy (RRT) on clinical outcomes in critically ill patients with acute kidney injury (AKI). Methods Systematic review and meta-analysis were used in this study. PUBMED, EMBASE, SCOPUS, Web of Science and Cochrane Central Registry of Controlled Clinical Trials, and other sources were searched in July 2010. Eligible studies selected were cohort and randomised trials that assessed timing of initiation of RRT in critically ill adults with AKI. Results We identified 15 unique studies (2 randomised, 4 prospective cohort, 9 retrospective cohort) out of 1,494 citations. The overall methodological quality was low. Early, compared with late therapy, was associated with a significant improvement in 28-day mortality (odds ratio (OR) 0.45; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.28 to 0.72). There was significant heterogeneity among the 15 pooled studies (I2 = 78%). In subgroup analyses, stratifying by patient population (surgical, n = 8 vs. mixed, n = 7) or study design (prospective, n = 10 vs. retrospective, n = 5), there was no impact on the overall summary estimate for mortality. Meta-regression controlling for illness severity (Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II)), baseline creatinine and urea did not impact the overall summary estimate for mortality. Of studies reporting secondary outcomes, five studies (out of seven) reported greater renal recovery, seven (out of eight) studies showed decreased duration of RRT and five (out of six) studies showed decreased ICU length of stay in the early, compared with late, RRT group. Early RRT did not; however, significantly affect the odds of dialysis dependence beyond hospitalization (OR 0.62 0.34 to 1.13, I2 = 69.6%). Conclusions Earlier institution of RRT in critically ill patients with AKI may have a beneficial impact on survival. However, this conclusion is based on heterogeneous studies of variable quality and only two randomised trials. In the absence of new evidence from suitably-designed randomised trials, a definitive treatment recommendation cannot be made

The Moderating Effect of Different Types of Internet Use on the Relationship between Transitional Aging Changes and Self-esteem of Older Adults

This study investigates the moderating effect of different types of Internet use regarding the relationship between three transitional aging changes and self-esteem of older adults. The current paper is still in progress; this is a research-in-progress paper. An aging population increases government expenditures and family responsibilities, thus drawing more attention from the academic community. Recent research posits that self-esteem tends to decline in individuals from the ages around 50-65 due to role loss, social loss, and dissatisfaction resulting from unaccomplished life goals. To address this issue, previous studies considered that the general use of the Internet may help to enhance self-esteem among older adults. To fill this research gap, the present study proposes that the cultural use of the Internet could moderate role loss of older adults, while social use of the Internet could mitigate social loss. Furthermore, economic use could moderate the dissatisfaction of unfulfilled life goals. Regarding various theoretical contributions, this is the first study to apply different types of Internet use, so as to investigate its moderating effect concerning the relationship between transitional aging changes and self-esteem. Findings of the present study can also help shed light on interventions for the caregiver in both community centers and the domestic environment to moderate the decline of self-esteem among older adults. The data will be collected through surveys distributed to District Elderly Community Centers (DECCs) in Hong Kong. Multiple regression analysis will then be utilized to test the moderating effect of each type of Internet use

Influenza Virus in Human Exhaled Breath: An Observational Study

Background: Recent studies suggest that humans exhale fine particles during tidal breathing but little is known of their composition, particularly during infection. Methodology/Principal Findings: We conducted a study of influenza infected patients to characterize influenza virus and particle concentrations in their exhaled breath. Patients presenting with influenza-like-illness, confirmed influenza A or B virus by rapid test, and onset within 3 days were recruited at three clinics in Hong Kong, China. We collected exhaled breath from each subject onto Teflon filters and measured exhaled particle concentrations using an optical particle counter. Filters were analyzed for influenza A and B viruses by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Twelve out of thirteen rapid test positive patients provided exhaled breath filter samples (7 subjects infected with influenza B virus and 5 subjects infected with influenza A virus). We detected influenza virus RNA in the exhaled breath of 4 (33%) subjects–three (60%) of the five patients infected with influenza A virus and one (14%) of the seven infected with influenza B virus. Exhaled influenza virus RNA generation rates ranged from <3.2 to 20 influenza virus RNA particles per minute. Over 87% of particles exhaled were under 1 µm in diameter. Conclusions: These findings regarding influenza virus RNA suggest that influenza virus may be contained in fine particles generated during tidal breathing, and add to the body of literature suggesting that fine particle aerosols may play a role in influenza transmission