Structural Vector Error Correction Modeling of Integrated Sportfishery Data

We demonstrate how to specify and estimate a time series model that can isolate the effects of changes in fishery policy and forecast the outcome of policy changes in the context of changing climate and economic factors. The approach is illustrated with data from the headboat fishery for red snapper in the Gulf of Mexico. The initial data analysis finds that effort and harvest are cointegrated series and that effort appears to respond somewhat to past changes in harvest. This suggested a structural vector error correction model specification. Model estimation results indicate that seasonal closures directly influence both harvest and effort, whereas bag and minimum size limits only affect harvest directly. Also, climate activity has a moderate influence on this fishery, mainly via changes in effort. Model forecasts are evaluated relative to a more naïve specification using out-of-sample data and the use of the model for policy analysis is demonstrated.Climate, Gulf of Mexico, red snapper, sportfishing demand, structural vector error correction, time series, Public Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty, Q22 Q26 Q28 C32,

On-Farm Costos of Reducing environmental degradation under risk

Farmers respond to environmental regulations by adjusting production practices so as to comply while minimizing their loss in expected income. Ultimately the cost of agro environmental regulation is determined by farm level adjust¬ments. Our farm level simulation framework assesses economic and environmental impacts of hypothetical pesticide restrictions in the context of continuing soil conservation efforts.

Optimal Crop-Insurance Strategies under Climate Variability: Contrasting Insurer and Farmer Interests

This study analyzes the potential synergies and conflicts of interest between farmers and insurers in the selection of an optimal crop insurance contract. Special attention is given to how climate information influences this decision-making process. To do so, we consider a representative 40 hectares, rainfed, cotton-peanut farm located in Jackson County in Florida. Our results show that year-to-year ENSO-based climate variability affects farmers income and insurers gains according to crop insurance contracts. Additionally, introduction of ENSO-based climate forecasts presents a significant impact on the selection of a particular contract. We conclude that insurers and farmers can bridge their divergent interests by improving their understanding of the effect of climate conditions on the development of sustainable business plans.Environmental Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty,

Evolution of Subjective Hurricane Risk Perceptions: A Bayesian Approach

This paper studies how individuals update subjective risk perceptions in response to hurricane track forecast information, using a unique data set from an event market, the Hurricane Futures Market (HFM). We derive a theoretical Bayesian framework which predicts how traders update their perceptions of the probability of a hurricane making landfall in a certain range of coastline. Our results suggest that traders behave in a way consistent with Bayesian updating but this behavior is based on the perceived quality of the information received.risk perceptions, learning, Bayesian learning, event markets, prediction markets, favorite-longshot bias, hurricanes

ENSO Forecast Value, Variable Climate and Stochastic Prices

We evaluate ENSO forecasts when prices are variable and ENSO is a portion of overall climatic variability. Forecast responses include crop mix, cultivar,fertilization, and planting date. Price changes reduce forecast value by excluding responses. Predictable income variability (ENSO-related), as a share of the total, evaluates forecast skill.Environmental Economics and Policy,

Climate Variability and Agricultural Productivity: Evidence from Southeastern US

The goal of this study is to empirically evaluate the extent to which agricultural productivity estimates are affected by variation on climate. To do so, we explore the case of the agricultural sector in the Southeast US. This geographical region is influenced seasonally by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena making it ideal for studying the interaction of climate variability and agricultural productivity. Although, different methodologies have been developed to study TE the stochastic production frontier (SPF) approach offers several advantages over other available alternatives (Kumbhakar and Lovell 2003). Thus, to assess the impact of climatic on TE we estimate alternative SPF models with and without climatic variables. We also test alternative variables to measure the influence of climate on TE; namely, seasonal rain fall and the ENSO phase.Climate Variability, Productivity, US, Production Economics,

The economic value of climate information

Fil: Bert, Federico Esteban. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía. Departamento de Producción Vegetal. Cátedra de Cerealicultura; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario; ArgentinaFil: Letson, David. University Of Miami. Rosenstiel School Of Marine Atmospheric Science. Meteorology And Physical Oceanography; Estados UnidosFil: Podesta, Guillermo. University Of Miami. Rosenstiel School Of Marine Atmospheric Science. Meteorology And Physical Oceanography; Estados Unido

CONFINED ANIMAL PRODUCTION AND MANURE NUTRIENTS

Using data from the Census of Agriculture on animal inventory and sales, we estimate manure nutrient production on farms with confined livestock. Using reported on-farm production of crops on these same farms, we estimate the nutrient uptake for major field crops and pastureland. This enables us to examine the balance between manure nutrient production and nutrient need measured by crop uptake at a farm level. Examination at alternative spatial scales, shows that 75 percent of counties in the U.S. have farms that produce more manure nutrients than can be assimilated on the farm of production (excess nitrogen).The vast majority of the counties that produce excess nitrogen have adequate land in the county to spread the manure at agronomic rates. Thus, proposed policies that focus on land application have the potential to limit manure nutrient movement to waterways in most areas, if properly managed. However, moving manure to crop farms that formerly had not used manure will increase costs. There were about 5 percent of counties where the manure nitrogen production levels from confined animal production exceeded half the nitrogen assimilative capacity of all the cropland and pastureland in the county. These areas have the greatest need for mechanisms to encourage off-farm solutions to utilize manure as a feedstock for commercial enterprises or central processing.Livestock Production/Industries,

CONFINED ANIMAL PRODUCTION AND MANURE NUTRIENTS

Census of agriculture data were used to estimate manure nutrient production and the capacity of cropland and pastureland to assimilate nutrients. Most farms (78 percent for nitrogen and 69 percent for phosphorus) have adequate land on which it is physically feasible to apply the manure produced onfarm at agronomic rates. (The costs of applying manure at these rates have not been assessed). Even so, manure that is produced on operations that cannot fully apply it to their own land at agronomic rates accounts for 60 percent of the Nation's manure nitrogen and 70 percent of the manure phosphorus. In these cases, most counties with farms that produce "excess" nutrients have adequate crop acres not associated with animal operations, but within the county, on which it is feasible to spread the manure at agronomic rates. However, barriers to moving manure to other farms need to be studied. About 20 percent of the Nation's onfarm excess manure nitrogen is produced in counties that have insufficient cropland for its application at agronomic rates (23 percent for phosphorus). For areas without adequate land, alternatives to local land application-such as energy production-will need to be developed.Manure, nutrients, manure nutrients, animal waste, confined livestock, confined animal feeding operation, CAFO, feedlot beef, dairy cows, swine, poultry, animal unit, manure nitrogen, manure phosphorus, water quality, Livestock Production/Industries,