The "second demographic transition": a conceptual map for the understanding of late modern demographic developments in fertility and family formation

"This article presents a narrative of the unfolding of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) since the theory was first formulated in 1986. The first part recapitulates the foundations of the theory, and documents the spread of the SDT to the point that it now covers most European populations. Also for Europe, it focuses on the relationship between the SDT and the growing heterogeneity in period fertility levels. It is shown that the current positive relationship between SDT and TFR levels is not a violation of the SDT theory, but the outcome of a 'split correlation' with different sub-narratives concerning the onset of fertility postponement and the degree of subsequent recuperation in two parts of Europe. The second part of the article addresses the issue of whether the SDT has spread or is currently spreading in industrialized Asian countries. Evidence gathered for Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan is presented. That evidence pertains to both the macro-level (national trends in postponement of marriage and parenthood, rise of cohabitation) and the micro-level (connections between individual values orientations and postponement of parenthood). Strong similarities are found with SDT patterns in Southern Europe, except for the fact that parenthood is still very rare among Asian cohabiting partners." (author's abstract

The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition

This article presents a narrative of the unfolding of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) since the theory was first formulated in 1986. The first part recapitulates the foundations of the theory, and documents the spread of the SDT to the point that it now covers most European populations. Also for Europe, it focuses on the relationship between the SDT and the growing heterogeneity in period fertility levels. It is shown that the current positive relationship between SDT and TFR levels is not a violation of the SDT theory, but the outcome of a “split correlation” with different sub-narratives concerning the onset of fertility postponement and the degree of subsequent recuperation in two parts of Europe. The second part of the article addresses the issue of whether the SDT has spread or is currently spreading in industrialized Asian countries. Evidence gathered for Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan is presented. That evidence pertains to both the macro-level (national trends in postponement of marriage and parenthood, rise of cohabitation) and the micro-level (connections between individual values orientations and postponement of parenthood). Strong similarities are found with SDT patterns in Southern Europe, except for the fact that parenthood is still very rare among Asian cohabiting partners.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/79230/1/j.1728-4457.2010.00328.x.pd

The Second Demographic Transition in the United States: Exception or Textbook Example?

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75204/1/j.1728-4457.2006.00146.x.pd

Cohabitation and marriage in the Americas : geo-historical legacies and new trends

This volume presents an innovative study of the rise of unmarried cohabitation in the Americas, from Canada to Argentina. Using an extensive sample of individual census data for nearly all countries on the continent, it offers a cross-national, comparative view of this recent demographic trend and its impact on the family. The book offers a tour of the historical legacies and regional heterogeneity in unmarried cohabitation, covering: Canada, the United States, Mexico, Central America, Colombia, the Andean region, Brazil, and the Southern Cone. It also explores the diverse meanings of cohabitation from a cross-national perspective and examines the theoretical implications of recent developments on family change in the Americas. The book uses data from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, International (IPUMS), a project dedicated to collecting and distributing census data from around the world. This large sample size enables an empirical testing of one of the currently most powerful explanatory frameworks for changes in family formation around the world, the theory of the Second Demographic Transition. With its unique geographical scope, this book will provide researchers with a new understanding into the spectacular rise in premarital cohabitation in the Americas, which has become one of the most salient trends in partnership formation in the region

Geografía de la unión libre en América Latina y el Caribe a comienzos del siglo XXI

La unión libre ha formado parte de los sistemas nupciales de América Latina desde tiempos coloniales aunque su práctica ha estado históricamente más extendida en unas regiones que en otras. La mayoría de trabajos que aportan datos sobre las características de este tipo de unión en América Latina lo hacen a escala nacional y son pocos los que han abordado esta cuestión a una escala más detallada. Este estudio moviliza más de 550 millones de registros individuales procedentes de los últimos datos censales publicados de 38 países de América Latina y el Caribe (2001-2012). En total se analizan los datos correspondientes a 17.000 unidades administrativas. El trabajo hace uso intensivo de los sistemas de información geográfica para gestionar la información, examinar la consistencia de los indicadores en áreas pequeñas, e identificar las áreas de influencia territorial de la unión libre y examinar la homogeneidad interna de los países

Las mujeres sin hijos por nivel educativo en América Latina, 1970-2000 : una reconstrucción a partir de datos censales

El objetivo de este trabajo es examinar y corregir el problema de las mujeres que no declaran el número de hijos que tienen en los censos de población. Todo ello con la finalidad de generar series temporales depuradas que permitan el estudio de la evolución de la fecundidad por nivel educativo en América Latina. Los datos utilizados provienen de las muestras de microdatos harmonizadas por el proyecto Integrated Public Use of Microdata Series. En concreto, se examinan 33 muestras censales entre 1970 y 2000 procedentes de 12 países. El porcentaje de mujeres que no declaran el número de hijos oscila entre el 0,04% en Argentina (1991) al 19,4% en Ecuador (1982). El procedimiento para corregir esta situación, está basado en el método de El-Badry. Este método parte de la hipótesis de que las mujeres que no declaran suelen ser mujeres que no tiene hijos y, por tanto, se espera que el nivel de no declaración sea menor en aquellas edades (o grupos) en las que hay un menor número de mujeres con hijos. En efecto, los datos demuestran que existe una fuerte relación positiva entre la proporción de mujeres que no declaran y la proporción de mujeres sin hijos, especialmente en aquellas muestras donde la no declaración es más evidente. También muestran que la subestimación es más evidente entre las mujeres con menor escolarización.The aim of this study is to examine and correct the problem of women who do not declare the number of children they have in the population census, with the final objective of generating refined time series that would permit study of the evolution of fertility by educational level in Latin America. The data used are from microdata samples harmonised by the Integrated Public Use of Microdata Series project. The study examines 33 census samples from 12 countries, dating from between 1970 and 2000. The percentages of women who do not declare how many children they have ranges from between 0.04% in Argentina (1991) and 19.4% in Ecuador (1982). The procedure for correcting the data is based on the E-Badry method, which starts out from the hypothesis that women who are shown as not responding tend to be childless, and it is therefore expected that the level of non-response would be lower in those ages (or groups) in which there is a smaller number of women with children. In fact, the data show a strong positive correlation between the proportion of women who do not respond and the proportion of childless women, especially in those samples where non-response is more evident. They also show that underestimation is more prevalent among women with lower levels of education.en els censos de població, el nombre de fills que tenen. Es realitza per generar sèries temporals depurades que permetin l'estudi de l'evolució de la fecunditat, per nivell educatiu, a Amèrica Llatina. Les dades utilitzades provenen de les mostres de microdades harmonitzades pel projecte Integrated Public Use of Microdata Series. En concret, s'examinen 33 mostres censals entre 1970 i 2000 procedents de 12 països. El percentatge de dones que no declaren el nombre de fills, va d'un mínim de 0,04% a Argentina (1991) a un màxim del 19,4% a Equador (1982). El procediment per corregir aquesta situació, està basat en el mètode del-Badry. Aquest mètode parteix de la hipòtesi que les dones que no declaren el nombre de fills, solen ser dones que no en tenen i, per tant, s'espera que el nivell de no declaració sigui menor en aquelles edats (o grups) en què hi ha un menor nombre de dones amb fills. Efectivament, les dades demostren que hi ha una relació positiva entre la proporció de dones que no declaren si tenen fills i la proporció de dones sense fills, especialment en aquelles mostres on la "no declaración" és més evident. Les dades també mostren que la subestimació és més evident entre les dones amb menor escolarització

Geography of the cohabitation in Latin America and the Caribbean at the beginning of XXI century

La unión libre ha formado parte de los sistemas nupciales de América Latina desde tiempos coloniales aunque su práctica ha estado históricamente más extendida en unas regiones que en otras. La mayoría de trabajos que aportan datos sobre las características de este tipo de unión en América Latina lo hacen a escala nacional y son pocos los que han abordado esta cuestión a una escala más detallada. Este estudio moviliza más de 550 millones de registros individuales procedentes de los últimos datos censales publicados de 38 países de América Latina y el Caribe (2001-2012). En total se analizan los datos correspondientes a 17.000 unidades administrativas. El trabajo hace uso intensivo de los sistemas de información geográfica para gestionar la información, examinar la consistencia de los indicadores en áreas pequeñas, e identificar las áreas de influencia territorial de la unión libre y examinar la homogeneidad interna de los países.Cohabitation has been part of the Latin American union formation system since colonial times. However, this type of union has been historically more extended in some areas than others. Most of the studies that have analyzed the characteristics of this type of union in Latin America use the national scale as a territorial unit of observation, and there are few that have studied this phenomenon from a more detailed approach. This paper compiles more than 550 million of person records from the latest population censuses released (2001-2012) corresponding to about 17,000 local entities of 38 countries. The study relies on Geographic Information Systems to manage the information, to examine the consistency of the local indicators used and to identify areas of territorial influence of cohabitation and the internal homogeneity of the countries

The status of women: Conceptual and methodological issues in demographic studies

This paper explores several conceptual problems in social demographic studies of the status of women, including failure to recognize the multidimensionality of women's status and its variation across social “locations,” the confounding of gender and class stratification systems, and the confounding of access to resources with their control. Also discussed are some generic problems in the measurement of female status, such as the sensitivity of particular indicators to social context, and the need to select consistent comparisons when judging the extent of gender inequality.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/45651/1/11206_2005_Article_BF01115740.pd