Regret bounds for meta Bayesian optimization with an unknown Gaussian process prior

Bayesian optimization usually assumes that a Bayesian prior is given. However, the strong theoretical guarantees in Bayesian optimization are often regrettably compromised in practice because of unknown parameters in the prior. In this paper, we adopt a variant of empirical Bayes and show that, by estimating the Gaussian process prior from offline data sampled from the same prior and constructing unbiased estimators of the posterior, variants of both GP-UCB and probability of improvement achieve a near-zero regret bound, which decreases to a constant proportional to the observational noise as the number of offline data and the number of online evaluations increase. Empirically, we have verified our approach on challenging simulated robotic problems featuring task and motion planning.Comment: Proceedings of the Thirty-second Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems, 201

Evaluating duration of response to treatment in systemic lupus erythematosus clinical trials.

ObjectiveTo evaluate response duration and identify predictors of transitioning into and out of the response state in patients with SLE receiving standard of care (SoC) in 52-week clinical trials.MethodsA multistate model (MSM) allowing for bidirectional transitions between response and non-response states was fit to data on 759 patients with SLE with active disease randomised to SoC. The probability of being in response at 52 weeks, average duration of response (sojourn time) and mean total time in response for SLE Responder Index (SRI-4, SRI-5, SRI-6) and BILAG-based Composite Lupus Assessment (BICLA) were estimated. Predictors of attainment and loss of SRI-5 response were also assessed.ResultsThe MSM estimated probability of being in response at 52 weeks ranged from 42% (SRI-6) to 61% (SRI-4). Mean duration of response ranged from 20.4 weeks (BICLA) to 31.5 weeks (SRI-4). Mean total time in response was 16.4-24.8 weeks. Baseline characteristics predictive of shorter SRI-5 response duration were African descent (p=0.005), longer history of disease (p=0.03), higher anti-dsDNA antibody titres (p=0.039), lower lymphocyte count (p=0.008) and lower haemoglobin (p=0.006). Younger age (p<0.001) and higher protein/creatinine ratio (p<0.001) were associated with higher likelihood of achieving SRI-5 but also shorter response duration.ConclusionFactors associated with disease severity were more predictive of shorter response duration than of 52-week response status. Analysing landmark response rates and response duration using MSM may be a more powerful way to distinguish effective investigational treatments from background SoC, although this remains to be evaluated in future trials

Marie Collier: a life

The Australian soprano Marie Collier (1927-1971) is generally remembered for two things: for her performance of the title role in Puccini’s Tosca, especially when she replaced the controversial singer Maria Callas at late notice in 1965; and her tragic death in a fall from a window at the age of forty-four. The focus on Tosca, and the mythology that has grown around the manner of her death, have obscured Collier’s considerable achievements. She sang traditional repertoire with great success in the major opera houses of Europe, North and South America and Australia, and became celebrated for her pioneering performances of twentieth-century works now regularly performed alongside the traditional canon. Collier’s experiences reveal much about post-World War II Australian identity and cultural values, about the ways in which the making of opera changed throughout the world in the 1950s and 1960s, and how women negotiated their changing status and prospects through that period. She exercised her profession in an era when the opera industry became globalised, creating and controlling an image of herself as the ‘housewife-diva’, maintaining her identity as an Australian artist on the international scene, and developing a successful career at the highest level of her artform while creating a fulfilling home life. This study considers the circumstances and mythology of Marie Collier’s death, but more importantly shows her as a woman of the mid-twentieth century navigating the professional and personal spheres to achieve her vision of a life that included art, work and family

Outcomes of a Bystander Intervention Community Health Service Learning Project

The purpose of this article is to describe the integration of a college bystander intervention service-learning project into an entry-level community clinical course in a prelicensure program and its outcomes. Two years of data from 118 students showed that students helped improve campus safety while growing as professionals and gaining leadership and health promotion skills. Approximately one-third of the students described a specific incident in which they intervened in an ambiguous situation

The Evidence for the Economic Value of eHealth in the United States Today: A Systematic Review

The United States healthcare system continues to face increasing costs, with year-over-year projected cost increases that now exceed the rate of increase of the gross domestic product. The rapid expansion and integration of eHealth within the United States healthcare system is driven primarily by a perceived ability to increase access in a cost-efficient manner. However, there is little economic research that addresses the large diversity of eHealth products being integrated into this healthcare landscape. The goal of this study is to evaluate the published economic evidence for eHealth in the United States, analyse how well it supports the growth of the current eHealth environment, and suggest what evidence is needed. This systematic literature review, conducted through the PubMed and The Cochrane Library databases, found that few studies addressed today’s eHealth environment. The current landscape is broader and less tailored to the traditional telemedicine initiatives represented by existing studies. We suggest more rigour in the design and scope of economic studies and that current eHealth technologies be identified for analysis. These studies must be comprehensive from the healthcare system’s perspective and conducted for relevant initiatives and patient groups to allow for evidence-based discussions on the cost-effectiveness of eHealth