Super-diffusion versus competitive advection: a simulation

Magnetic element tracking is often used to study the transport and diffusion of the magnetic field on the solar photosphere. From the analysis of the displacement spectrum of these tracers, it has been recently agreed that a regime of super-diffusivity dominates the solar surface. Quite habitually this result is discussed in the framework of fully developed turbulence. But the debate whether the super-diffusivity is generated by a turbulent dispersion process, by the advection due to the convective pattern, or by even another process, is still open, as is the question about the amount of diffusivity at the scales relevant to the local dynamo process. To understand how such peculiar diffusion in the solar atmosphere takes places, we compared the results from two different data-sets (ground-based and space-borne) and developed a simulation of passive tracers advection by the deformation of a Voronoi network. The displacement spectra of the magnetic elements obtained by the data-sets are consistent in retrieving a super-diffusive regime for the solar photosphere, but the simulation also shows a super-diffusive displacement spectrum: its competitive advection process can reproduce the signature of super-diffusion. Therefore, it is not necessary to hypothesize a totally developed turbulence regime to explain the motion of the magnetic elements on the solar surface

Position and velocity space diffusion of test particles in stochastic electromagnetic fields

The two--dimensional diffusive dynamics of test particles in a random electromagnetic field is studied. The synthetic electromagnetic fluctuations are generated through randomly placed magnetised ``clouds'' oscillating with a frequency $\omega$. We investigate the mean square displacements of particles in both position and velocity spaces. As $\omega$ increases the particles undergo standard (Brownian--like) motion, anomalous diffusion and ballistic motion in position space. Although in general the diffusion properties in velocity space are not trivially related to those in position space, we find that energization is present only when particles display anomalous diffusion in position space. The anomalous character of the diffusion is only in the non--standard values of the scaling exponents while the process is Gaussian.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figure

Observation of inertial energy cascade in interplanetary space plasma

We show in this article direct evidence for the presence of an inertial energy cascade, the most characteristic signature of hydromagnetic turbulence (MHD), in the solar wind as observed by the Ulysses spacecraft. After a brief rederivation of the equivalent of Yaglom's law for MHD turbulence, we show that a linear relation is indeed observed for the scaling of mixed third order structure functions involving Els\"asser variables. This experimental result, confirming the prescription stemming from a theorem for MHD turbulence, firmly establishes the turbulent character of low-frequency velocity and magnetic field fluctuations in the solar wind plasma

To what extent can dynamical models describe statistical features of turbulent flows?

Statistical features of "bursty" behaviour in charged and neutral fluid turbulence, are compared to statistics of intermittent events in a GOY shell model, and avalanches in different models of Self Organized Criticality (SOC). It is found that inter-burst times show a power law distribution for turbulent samples and for the shell model, a property which is shared only in a particular case of the running sandpile model. The breakdown of self-similarity generated by isolated events observed in the turbulent samples, is well reproduced by the shell model, while it is absent in all SOC models considered. On this base, we conclude that SOC models are not adequate to mimic fluid turbulence, while the GOY shell model constitutes a better candidate to describe the gross features of turbulence.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures, in press on Europhys. Lett. (may 2002

Proper orthogonal decomposition of solar photospheric motions

The spatio-temporal dynamics of the solar photosphere is studied by performing a Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) of line of sight velocity fields computed from high resolution data coming from the MDI/SOHO instrument. Using this technique, we are able to identify and characterize the different dynamical regimes acting in the system. Low frequency oscillations, with frequencies in the range 20-130 microHz, dominate the most energetic POD modes (excluding solar rotation), and are characterized by spatial patterns with typical scales of about 3 Mm. Patterns with larger typical scales of 10 Mm, are associated to p-modes oscillations at frequencies of about 3000 microHz.Comment: 8 figures in jpg in press on PR

The clustering of polarity reversals of the geomagnetic field

Often in nature the temporal distribution of inhomogeneous stochastic point processes can be modeled as a realization of renewal Poisson processes with a variable rate. Here we investigate one of the classical examples, namely the temporal distribution of polarity reversals of the geomagnetic field. In spite of the commonly used underlying hypothesis, we show that this process strongly departs from a Poisson statistics, the origin of this failure stemming from the presence of temporal clustering. We find that a Levy statistics is able to reproduce paleomagnetic data, thus suggesting the presence of long-range correlations in the underlying dynamo process.Comment: 4 pages, in press on PRL (31 march 2006?

Solar Activity from 2006 to 2014 and Short-term Forecasts of Solar Proton Events Using the ESPERTA Model

To evaluate the solar energetic proton (SEP) forecast model of Laurenza et al., here termed ESPERTA, we computed the input parameters (soft X-ray (SXR) fluence and ∼1 MHz radio fluence) for all ≥M2 SXR flares from 2006 to 2014. This database is outside the 1995-2005 interval on which ESPERTA was developed. To assess the difference in the general level of activity between these two intervals, we compared the occurrence frequencies of SXR flares and SEP events for the first six years of cycles 23 (1996 September-2002 September) and 24 (2008 December-2014 December). We found a reduction of SXR flares and SEP events of 40% and 46%, respectively, in the latter period. Moreover, the numbers of ≥M2 flares with high values of SXR and ∼1 MHz fluences (>0.1 J m-2 and >6 × 105 sfu × minute, respectively) are both reduced by ∼30%. A somewhat larger percentage decrease of these two parameters (∼40% versus ∼30%) is obtained for the 2006-2014 interval in comparison with 1995-2005. Despite these differences, ESPERTA performance was comparable for the two intervals. For the 2006-2014 interval, ESPERTA had a probability of detection (POD) of 59% (19/32) and a false alarm rate (FAR) of 30% (8/27), versus a POD = 63% (47/75) and an FAR = 42% (34/81) for the original 1995-2005 data set. In addition, for the 2006-2014 interval the median (average) warning time was estimated to be ∼2 hr (∼7 hr), versus ∼6 hr (∼9 hr), for the 1995-2005 data set

Diffusion entropy and waiting time statistics of hard x-ray solar flares

We analyze the waiting time distribution of time distances $\tau$ between two nearest-neighbor flares. This analysis is based on the joint use of two distinct techniques. The first is the direct evaluation of the distribution function $\psi(\tau)$, or of the probability, $\Psi(tau)$, that no time distance smaller than a given $\tau$ is found. We adopt the paradigm of the inverse power law behavior, and we focus on the determination of the inverse power index $\mu$, without ruling out different asymptotic properties that might be revealed, at larger scales, with the help of richer statistics. The second technique, called Diffusion Entropy (DE) method, rests on the evaluation of the entropy of the diffusion process generated by the time series. The details of the diffusion process depend on three different walking rules, which determine the form and the time duration of the transition to the scaling regime, as well as the scaling parameter $\delta$. With the first two rules the information contained in the time series is transmitted, to a great extent, to the transition, as well as to the scaling regime. The same information is essentially conveyed, by using the third rules, into the scaling regime, which, in fact, emerges very quickly after a fast transition process. We show that the significant information hidden within the time series concerns memory induced by the solar cycle, as well as the power index $\mu$. The scaling parameter $\delta$ becomes a simple function of $\mu$, when memory is annihilated. Thus, the three walking rules yield a unique and precise value of $\mu$ if the memory is wisely taken under control, or cancelled by shuffling the data. All this makes compelling the conclusion that $\mu = 2.138 \pm 0.01$.Comment: 23 pages, 13 figure

Statistical Models for Solar Flare Interval Distribution in Individual Active Regions

This article discusses statistical models for solar flare interval distribution in individual active regions. We analyzed solar flare data in 55 active regions that are listed in the GOES soft X-ray flare catalog. We discuss some problems with a conventional procedure to derive probability density functions from any data set and propose a new procedure, which uses the maximum likelihood method and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to objectively compare some competing probability density functions. We found that lognormal and inverse Gaussian models are more likely models than the exponential model for solar flare interval distribution in individual active regions. The results suggest that solar flares do not occur randomly in time; rather, solar flare intervals appear to be regulated by solar flare mechanisms. We briefly mention a probabilistic solar flare forecasting method as an application of a solar flare interval distribution analysis.Comment: 15 pages, 2 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in Solar Physic

Recurrent flares in active region NOAA 11283

Context. Flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are solar phenomena that are not yet fully understood. Several investigations have been performed to single out their related physical parameters that can be used as indices of the magnetic complexity leading to their occurrence. Aims. In order to shed light on the occurrence of recurrent flares and subsequent associated CMEs, we studied the active region NOAA 11283 where recurrent M and X GOES-class flares and CMEs occurred. Methods. We use vector magnetograms taken by HMI/SDO to calculate the horizontal velocity fields of the photospheric magnetic structures, the shear and the dip angles of the magnetic field, the magnetic helicity flux distribution, and the Poynting fluxes across the photosphere due to the emergence and the shearing of the magnetic field. Results. Although we do not observe consistent emerging magnetic flux through the photosphere during the observation time interval, we detected a monotonic increase of the magnetic helicity accumulated in the corona. We found that both the shear and the dip angles have high values along the main polarity inversion line (PIL) before and after all the events. We also note that before the main flare of X2.1 GOES class, the shearing motions seem to inject a more significant energy than the energy injected by the emergence of the magnetic field. Conclusions. We conclude that the very long duration (about 4 days) of the horizontal displacement of the main photospheric magnetic structures along the PIL has a primary role in the energy release during the recurrent flares. This peculiar horizontal velocity field also contributes to the monotonic injection of magnetic helicity into the corona. This process, coupled with the high shear and dip angles along the main PIL, appears to be responsible for the consecutive events of loss of equilibrium leading to the recurrent flares and CMEs