Limitations of the Odds Ratio in Gauging the Performance of a Diagnostic or Prognostic Marker

A marker that is strongly associated with outcome (or disease) is often assumed to be effective for classifying individuals according to their current or future outcome. However, for this to be true, the associated odds ratio must be of a magnitude rarely seen in epidemiological studies. An illustration of the relationship between odds ratios and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves shows, for example, that a marker with an odds ratio as high as 3 is in fact a very poor classification tool. If a marker identifies 10 percent of controls as positive (false positives) and has an odds ratio of 3, then it will only correctly identify 25 percent of cases as positive (true positives). Moreover, the authors illustrate that a single measure of association such as an odds ratio does not meaningfully describe a marker’s ability to classify subjects. Appropriate statistical methods for assessing and reporting the classification power of a marker are described. The serious pitfalls of using more traditional methods based on parameters in logistic regression models are illustrated

Outcome of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Lower Respiratory Tract Disease in Hematopoietic Cell Transplant Recipients Receiving Aerosolized Ribavirin: Significance of Stem Cell Source and Oxygen Requirement

AbstractRespiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is an important complication after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT), and RSV lower respiratory tract disease (LRD) results in substantial early mortality and late airflow obstruction among survivors. Factors associated with poor outcome are unknown. We evaluated the effect of transplant and treatment factors on overall survival, mortality from respiratory failure, and pulmonary function among 82 HCT recipients who had RSV LRD between 1990 and 2011. All patients received aerosolized ribavirin. In multivariable analyses, only the use of marrow or cord blood as graft source (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 4.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8 to 9.0; P < .001) and oxygen requirement (aHR, 3.3; 95% CI, 1.5 to 6.7; P = .003) remained independently associated with overall mortality and death due to respiratory failure (aHR, 4.7; 95% CI, 1.8 to 13; P = .002 and aHR, 5.4; 95% CI, 1.8 to 16; P = .002, respectively). Antibody-based treatments, including intravenous immunoglobulin and palivizumab, were not independently associated with improved outcome and did not alter the associations of the graft source and oxygen requirements in statistical models. In conclusion, use of peripheral blood stem cells as graft source and lack of oxygen requirement at diagnosis appear to be important factors associated with improved survival of HCT recipients with RSV LRD. These results may explain differences in outcomes reported from RSV infection over time and may guide the design of future interventional trials

Stroke impact on mortality and psychologic morbidity within the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study.

BackgroundPoor socioeconomic and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) outcomes in survivors of childhood cancer can lead to distress and overall negatively impact the lives of these individuals. The current report has highlighted the impact of stroke and stroke recurrence on mortality, psychological HRQOL, and socioeconomic outcomes within the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS).MethodsThe CCSS is a retrospective cohort study with longitudinal follow-up concerning survivors of pediatric cancer who were diagnosed between 1970 and 1986. Mortality rates per 100 person-years were calculated across 3 periods: 1) prior to stroke; 2) after first stroke and before recurrent stroke; and 3) after recurrent stroke. Socioeconomic outcomes, the standardized Brief Symptoms Inventory-18, the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short Form Health Survey, and the CCSS-Neurocognitive Questionnaire also were assessed.ResultsAmong 14,358 participants (median age, 39.7&nbsp;years), 224 had a stroke after their cancer diagnosis (single stroke in 161 patients and recurrent stroke in 63 patients). Based on 2636 deaths, all-cause late mortality rates were 0.70 (95% CI, 0.68-0.73) prior to stroke, 1.03 (95% CI, 0.73-1.46) after the first stroke, and 2.42 (95% CI, 1.48-3.94) after the recurrent stroke. Among 7304 survivors, those with stroke were more likely to live with a caregiver (single stroke odds ratio [OR], 2.3 [95% CI, 1.4-3.8]; and recurrent stroke OR, 5.3 [95% CI, 1.7-16.8]) compared with stroke-free survivors. Stroke negatively impacted task efficiency (single stroke OR, 2.4 [95% CI, 1.4-4.1] and recurrent stroke OR, 3.3 [95% CI, 1.1-10.3]) and memory (single stroke OR, 2.1 [95% CI, 1.2-3.7]; and recurrent stroke OR, 3.5 [95% CI, 1.1-10.5]).ConclusionsStroke and stroke recurrence are associated with increased mortality and negatively impact HRQOL measures in survivors of pediatric cancer

Diagnostic and Prognostic Plasma Biomarkers for Idiopathic Pneumonia Syndrome after Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation

Idiopathic pneumonia syndrome (IPS) is a noninfectious pulmonary complication after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) and is difficult to diagnose. In 41 patients with IPS, we evaluated 6 candidate proteins in plasma samples at day 7 post-HCT and at onset of IPS to identify potential diagnostic or prognostic biomarkers for IPS. Samples at similar times from 162 HCT recipients without documented infections and 37 HCT recipients with respiratory viral pneumonia served as controls. In multivariable models, a combination of Stimulation-2 (ST2; odds ratio [OR], 2.8; P < .001) and IL-6 (OR, 1.4; P = .025) was the best panel for distinguishing IPS at diagnosis from unaffected controls, whereas tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (TNFR1; OR, 2.9; P = .002) was the best marker when comparing patients with IPS and viral pneumonia. The areas under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for discriminating between IPS and unaffected controls at day 7 post-HCT were .8 for ST2, .75 for IL-6, and .68 for TNFR1. Using estimated sensitivity and specificity values from cutoffs determined with the ROC analysis (cutoff level: ST2, 21 ng/mL; IL-6, 61 pg/mL; TNFR1, 3421 pg/mL), we calculated positive predictive values (PPV) for a range of estimated population prevalence values of IPS. Among the 3 markers, ST2 showed the highest PPV for IPS occurrence. Based on an assumed prevalence of 8%, a positive ST2 test increased likelihood of IPS to 50%. We conclude that a prospective validation study is warranted to determine whether a plasma biomarker panel can aid the noninvasive diagnosis and prognosis of IPS

Associations between endogenous sex hormone levels and mammographic and bone densities in premenopausal women

PURPOSE: Mammographic breast and bone mineral densities (BMD) have been associated with luteal phase hormone concentrations in premenopausal women. We assessed the associations of breast and bone densities with follicular phase hormones and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) in premenopausal women given that follicular phase hormones have been shown to be positively associated with premenopausal breast cancer risk. METHODS: One hundred and ninety two 40-45 year old women provided a spot urine and/or blood sample during the follicular phase. Hormone and SHBG concentrations and bone density were measured and routine mammograms were accessed and digitized to obtain breast density measures. Regression models were fit to assess the associations between hormones and SHBG and breast and bone densities. RESULTS: Positive associations were observed between percent breast density and SHBG (p trend = 0.02), as well as estradiol (p trend = 0.08), after controlling for body mass index (BMI), number of pregnancies, and breast feeding history. In addition, a statistically significant inverse association was observed between total testosterone and head BMD (p trend = 0.01), after controlling for BMI. CONCLUSIONS: Associations were observed between breast and bone densities and serum hormone concentrations during the follicular phase of the menstrual cycle

Cardiac outcomes in a cohort of adult survivors of childhood and adolescent cancer: retrospective analysis of the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study cohort

Objectives To assess the incidence of and risks for congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, pericardial disease, and valvular abnormalities among adult survivors of childhood and adolescent cancers

Risk factors for overweight and obesity after childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in North America and Switzerland: A comparison of two cohort studies.

BACKGROUND After childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), sequelae include overweight and obesity, yet with conflicting evidence. We compared the prevalence of overweight and obesity between ≥5-year ALL survivors from the North American Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) and the Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (SCCSS) and described risk factors. METHODS We included adult childhood ALL survivors diagnosed between 1976 and 1999. We matched CCSS participants (3:1) to SCCSS participants by sex and attained age. We calculated body mass index (BMI) from self-reported height and weight for 1287 CCSS and 429 SCCSS participants; we then compared those with siblings (2034) in North America and Switzerland (678) siblings. We assessed risk factors for overweight (BMI 25-29.9 kg/m2 ) and obesity (≥30 kg/m2 ) using multinomial regression. RESULTS We found overweight and obesity significantly more common among survivors in North America when compared with survivors in Switzerland [overweight: 30%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 27-32 vs. 24%, 21-29; obesity: 29%, 27-32 vs. 7%, 5-10] and siblings (overweight: 30%, 27-32 vs. 25%, 22-29; obesity: 24%, 22-26 vs. 6%, 4-8). Survivors in North America [odds ratio (OR) = 1.24, 1.01-1.53] and Switzerland (1.27, 0.74-2.21) were slightly more often obese than siblings. Among survivors, risk factors for obesity included residency in North America (5.8, 3.7-9.0); male (1.7, 1.3-2.3); attained age (≥45 years: 5.1, 2.4-10.8); Non-Hispanic Black (3.4, 1.6-7.0); low household income (2.3, 1.4-3.5); young age at diagnosis (1.6, 1.1-2.2). Cranial radiotherapy ≥18 Gray was only a risk factor for overweight (1.4, 1.0-1.8); steroids were not associated with overweight or obesity. Interaction tests found no evidence of difference in risk factors between cohorts. CONCLUSIONS Although treatment-related risk for overweight and obesity were similar between regions, higher prevalence among survivors in North America identifies important sociodemographic drivers for informing health policy and targeted intervention trials

Cytomegalovirus reactivation in critically ill immunocompetent patients.

CONTEXT: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is associated with adverse clinical outcomes in immunosuppressed persons, but the incidence and association of CMV reactivation with adverse outcomes in critically ill persons lacking evidence of immunosuppression have not been well defined. OBJECTIVE: To determine the association of CMV reactivation with intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital length of stay in critically ill immunocompetent persons. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We prospectively assessed CMV plasma DNAemia by thrice-weekly real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and clinical outcomes in a cohort of 120 CMV-seropositive, immunocompetent adults admitted to 1 of 6 ICUs at 2 separate hospitals at a large US tertiary care academic medical center between 2004 and 2006. Clinical measurements were assessed by personnel blinded to CMV PCR results. Risk factors for CMV reactivation and association with hospital and ICU length of stay were assessed by multivariable logistic regression and proportional odds models. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Association of CMV reactivation with prolonged hospital length of stay or death. RESULTS: The primary composite end point of continued hospitalization (n = 35) or death (n = 10) by 30 days occurred in 45 (35%) of the 120 patients. Cytomegalovirus viremia at any level occurred in 33% (39/120; 95% confidence interval [CI], 24%-41%) at a median of 12 days (range, 3-57 days) and CMV viremia greater than 1000 copies/mL occurred in 20% (24/120; 95% CI, 13%-28%) at a median of 26 days (range, 9-56 days). By logistic regression, CMV infection at any level (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 4.3; 95% CI, 1.6-11.9; P = .005) and at greater than 1000 copies/mL (adjusted OR, 13.9; 95% CI, 3.2-60; P < .001) and the average CMV area under the curve (AUC) in log(10) copies per milliliter (adjusted OR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.3-3.2; P < .001) were independently associated with hospitalization or death by 30 days. In multivariable partial proportional odds models, both CMV 7-day moving average (OR, 5.1; 95% CI, 2.9-9.1; P < .001) and CMV AUC (OR, 3.2; 95% CI, 2.1-4.7; P < .001) were independently associated with a hospital length of stay of at least 14 days. CONCLUSIONS: These preliminary findings suggest that reactivation of CMV occurs frequently in critically ill immunocompetent patients and is associated with prolonged hospitalization or death. A controlled trial of CMV prophylaxis in this setting is warranted

Subsequent female breast cancer risk associated with anthracycline chemotherapy for childhood cancer.

Anthracycline-based chemotherapy is associated with increased subsequent breast cancer (SBC) risk in female childhood cancer survivors, but the current evidence is insufficient to support early breast cancer screening recommendations for survivors treated with anthracyclines. In this study, we pooled individual patient data of 17,903 survivors from six well-established studies, of whom 782 (4.4%) developed a SBC, and analyzed dose-dependent effects of individual anthracycline agents on developing SBC and interactions with chest radiotherapy. A dose-dependent increased SBC risk was seen for doxorubicin (hazard ratio (HR) per 100 mg m-2: 1.24, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.18-1.31), with more than twofold increased risk for survivors treated with ≥200 mg m-2 cumulative doxorubicin dose versus no doxorubicin (HR: 2.50 for 200-299 mg m-2, HR: 2.33 for 300-399 mg m-2 and HR: 2.78 for ≥400 mg m-2). For daunorubicin, the associations were not statistically significant. Epirubicin was associated with increased SBC risk (yes/no, HR: 3.25, 95% CI: 1.59-6.63). For patients treated with or without chest irradiation, HRs per 100 mg m-2 of doxorubicin were 1.11 (95% CI: 1.02-1.21) and 1.26 (95% CI: 1.17-1.36), respectively. Our findings support that early initiation of SBC surveillance may be reasonable for survivors who received ≥200 mg m-2 cumulative doxorubicin dose and should be considered in SBC surveillance guidelines for survivors and future treatment protocols

Cohort profile: Risk and risk factors for female breast cancer after treatment for childhood and adolescent cancer: an internationally pooled cohort.

PURPOSE The International Consortium for Pooled Studies on Subsequent Malignancies after Childhood and Adolescent Cancer was established in 2018 to address gaps in knowledge of risk and risk factors for breast cancer subsequent to childhood/adolescent cancer by pooling individual patient data from seven cohorts. Initially, the pooled cohort will focus on three clinically relevant questions regarding treatment-related subsequent breast cancer risk in female survivors, which are the risk related to low-dose radiotherapy exposure to the chest, specific chemotherapy agents and attained age. PARTICIPANTS The consortium database includes pooled data on 21 892 female survivors from seven cohorts in North America and Europe with a primary cancer diagnosis at <21 years of age, and survival ≥5 years from diagnosis. FINDINGS TO DATE This is a newly established pooled study. The cohort profile summarised the data collected from each included cohort, including childhood cancer diagnosis information and treatment details (ie, radiotherapy fields and cumulative doses, and chemotherapy agents and cumulative doses for each agent). Included cohorts' follow-up started 1951-1981 and ended 2013-2021, respectively, for a median follow-up duration of 24.3 (IQR 18.0-32.8) years since primary cancer diagnosis. The median age at primary cancer diagnosis was 5.4 (IQR 2.5-11.9) years. And the median attained age at last follow-up was 32.2 (IQR 24.0-40.4) years. In all, 4240 (19.4%) survivors were treated with radiotherapy to the chest and 9308 (42.5%) with anthracyclines. At the end of the follow-up, 835 females developed a first subsequent breast cancer, including 635 invasive breast cancer only, 184 carcinomas in situ only (172 ductal carcinomas in situ and 12 lobular carcinomas in situ), and 16 with both an invasive and in situ diagnosis at the same moment. The cumulative incidences of subsequent breast cancer (both invasive and in situ) 25 and 35 years after primary cancer diagnosis were 2.2% and 6.2%, respectively. FUTURE PLANS The consortium is intended to serve as a model and robust source of childhood/adolescent cancer survivor data for elucidating other knowledge gaps on subsequent breast cancer risk, and risk of other subsequent malignancies (including data on males) in the future