'Quarbs' and Efficiency in Spread Betting Markets: can you beat the book?

In this paper, we examine a relatively novel form of gambling, index (or spread) betting, that mirrors (and indeed overlaps with) practices in conventional financial markets. In this form of betting, a number of bookmakers quote a bid-offer spread about the result of some future event, and bettors are invited to buy (sell) at the top (bottom) end of the quoted spreads. We hypothesise that the existence of an outlying spread may provide uninformed traders with information that can be used to develop improved trading strategies. Using conditional moment tests on data from a popular spread betting market in the United Kingdom, we find that in the presence of a number of price-setters, the market mid-point is indeed a better predictor of asset values than the outlying price. We further show that this information can be used to develop trading strategies that lead to returns that are consistently positive and superior to those from noise trading and, in some cases, significantly so.

The Curious Case of Betting Taxation in the UK: Lessons and Implications

In 1926 the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Winston Churchill, introduced a tax on betting into the UK, claiming he was looking not for trouble, but for revenue. He got a lot of the former but very little of the latter, and the tax was repealed in 1930. Cash betting in licensed betting offices was legalised in 1960, and the taxation of betting was re-introduced in 1966, based on turnover. In 2001, this turnover system of taxation was abolished and replaced with a tax on ‘gross profits’. The effective incidence of the tax was significantly lower than the tax it replaced, and was not passed on to bettors. This new system of betting taxation was later extended to include other types of gambling, including football pools, bingo and betting exchanges, and in 2013 was extended generally to gambling machines. This paper considers the development of betting tax in the UK and in particular the effect of the switch to a ‘gross profits’ tax on the gambling sector, and considers what more general implications this has for the way in which gambling, and in particular gambling machines, should be taxed in other jurisdictions

It is with considerable pleasure that we present the inaugural issue of the Journal of Gambling Business and Economics

There is a long-standing gap in the market for a journal that provides an outlet for academics and practitioners who have an interest in the economic and business aspects of the rapidly growing international gambling market. This journal is designed to fill this gap

INTRODUCTION TO THE FIRST ISSUE FROM THE EDITOR LEIGHTON VAUGHAN WILLIAMS

INTRODUCTION TO THE FIRST ISSUE FROM THE EDITOR LEIGHTON VAUGHAN WILLIAM

Taxation and the Demand for Gambling: New Evidence from the United Kingdom.

In October 2001, the U.K. government implemented a dramatic shift in the taxation of gambling, resulting in a substantial decline in taxes levied on U.K. bookmakers. Using data before and after this event, we present econometric evidence on the demand response to this tax reduction. Our results suggest that the demand for bookmaker gambling is highly sensitive to taxation rates and that the decline in the rate of taxation led to a large increase in the demand for on-shore betting. We also find some evidence of price-induced substitution across different segments of the gambling industry. The U.K. policy initiative may provide useful information for policy makers in other countries who are contemplating changes in gambling taxation.

Productivity Measurement in a Service Industry: Plant-Level Evidence from Gambling Establishments in the United Kingdom

Gambling is one of the fastest growing service industries. Unfortunately, there have been no studies of total factor productivity (TFP) in this sector. The purpose of this paper is to fill this gap, based on an analysis of U.K. establishment-level data. These data are derived from the Annual Respondents Database (ARD) file, constructed by the U.K. Office for National Statistics, consisting of individual establishment records from the Annual Census of Production. The ARD file contains detailed data on output, materials, energy, employment, and numerous plant and firm characteristics and is quite similar to the U.S.-based Longitudinal Research Database (LRD). This information can be used to construct measures of TFP. We also construct estimates of labour productivity, since TFP is may be measured with error. We use these data to estimate labour and total factor productivity equations based on a stochastic frontier production function framework. The latter approach enables us to assess whether investment in information technology enhances relative productivity. Our preliminary results suggest that the production function models fit well, generating plausible elasticity estimates and indicating constant returns to scale. While investment in computers per se does not appear to have a productivity enhancing effect, gambling establishments that use Internet-based technology appear to be closer to the frontier.

Do bookmakers possess superior skills to bettors in predicting outcomes?

In this paper we test the hypothesis that bookmakers display superior skills to bettors in predicting the outcome of sporting events by using matched data from traditional bookmaking and person-to-person exchanges. Employing a conditional logistic regression model on horse racing data from the UK we find that, in high liquidity betting markets, betting exchange odds have more predictive value than the corresponding bookmaker odds. To control for potential spillovers between the two markets, we repeat the analysis for cases where prices diverge significantly. Once again, exchange odds yield more valuable information concerning race outcomes than the bookmaker equivalents

Polls to probabilities: comparing prediction markets and opinion polls

Forecasting election outcomes is a hugely popular activity, and not without reason: outcomes can have significant economic impacts, for example on stock prices. As such, it is economically important, as well as of academic interest, to determine the forecasting methods that have historically performed best. However, forecasts are often incompatible, as some are in terms of vote shares, and others are probabilistic outcome forecasts. In this paper we set out an empirical method for transforming opinion poll vote shares into probabilistic forecasts, and then evaluate the performance of prediction markets and opinion polls. We compare along two dimensions: bias and precision. We find that converted opinion polls perform well in terms of bias, and prediction markets on precision

Betting markets for English Premier League results and scorelines: evaluating a forecasting model

Using betting odds from two recent seasons of English Premier League football matches, we evaluate probability and point forecasts generated from a standard statistical model of goal scoring. The bookmaker odds show significant evidence of the favourite-longshot bias for exact scorelines, which is not generally present for match results. We find evidence that the scoreline probability forecasts from the model are better than what the odds of bookmakers imply, based on forecast encompassing regressions. However, when we apply a simple betting strategy using point forecasts from the model, there are no substantial or consistent financial returns to be made over the two seasons. In other words, there is no evidence from this particular statistical model that the result, scoreline, margin of victory or total goals betting markets are on average inefficient

When are prediction market prices most informative?

Prediction markets are a popular platform for eliciting incentivised crowd predictions. In this paper, we examine variation in the information contained in prediction market prices by studying Intrade prices on U.S. elections around the release of opinion polls. We find that poll releases stimulate an immediate uptick in trading activity. However, much of this activity involves relatively inexperienced traders and, as a result, price efficiency declines in the immediate aftermath of a poll release. It is not until more experienced traders enter the market in the following hours that price efficiency recovers. More generally, this suggests that information releases do not necessarily improve prediction market forecasts, but may instead attract noise traders who temporarily reduce price efficiency