Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey

Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30–0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54–2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986–2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63–1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67–5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. © 2020, The Author(s)

The Incidence of Highly-Obscured Star-Forming Regions in SINGS Galaxies

Using the new capabilities of the Spitzer Space Telescope and extensive multiwavelength data from the Spitzer Infrared Nearby Galaxies Survey (SINGS), it is now possible to study the infrared properties of star formation in nearby galaxies down to scales equivalent to large HII regions. We are therefore able to determine what fraction of large, infrared-selected star-forming regions in normal galaxies are highly obscured and address how much of the star formation we miss by relying solely on the optical portion of the spectrum. Employing a new empirical method for deriving attenuations of infrared-selected star-forming regions we investigate the statistics of obscured star formation on 500pc scales in a sample of 38 nearby galaxies. We find that the median attenuation is 1.4 magnitudes in H-alpha and that there is no evidence for a substantial sub-population of uniformly highly-obscured star-forming regions. The regions in the highly-obscured tail of the attenuation distribution (A_H-alpha > 3) make up only ~4% of the sample of nearly 1800 regions, though very embedded infrared sources on the much smaller scales and lower luminosities of compact and ultracompact HII regions are almost certainly present in greater numbers. The highly-obscured cases in our sample are generally the bright, central regions of galaxies with high overall attenuation but are not otherwise remarkable. We also find that a majority of the galaxies show decreasing radial trends in H-alpha attenuation. The small fraction of highly-obscured regions seen in this sample of normal, star-forming galaxies suggests that on 500pc scales the timescale for significant dispersal or break up of nearby, optically-thick dust clouds is short relative to the lifetime of a typical star-forming region.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ; emulateapj style, 30 pages, 18 figures (compressed versions), 3 table

Neighbourhood environment, physical activity, quality of life and depressive symptoms in Hong Kong older adults: a protocol for an observational study

INTRODUCTION: The neighbourhood environment can assist the adoption and maintenance of an active lifestyle and affect the physical and mental well-being of older adults. The psychosocial and behavioural mechanisms through which the environment may affect physical and mental well-being are currently poorly understood. AIM: This observational study aims to examine associations between the physical and social neighbourhood environments, physical activity, quality of life and depressive symptoms in Chinese Hong Kong older adults. METHODS AND ANALYSES: An observational study of the associations of measures of the physical and social neighbourhood environment, and psychosocial factors, with physical activity, quality of life and depressive symptoms in 900 Hong Kong older adults aged 65+ years is being conducted in 2012-2016. The study involves two assessments taken 6 months apart. Neighbourhood walkability and access to destinations are objectively measured using Geographic Information Systems and environmental audits. Demographics, socioeconomic status, walking for different purposes, perceived neighbourhood and home environments, psychosocial factors, health status, social networks, depressive symptoms and quality of life are being assessed using validated interviewer-administered self-report measures and medical records. Physical functionality is being assessed using the Short Physical Performance Battery. Physical activity and sedentary behaviours are also being objectively measured in approximately 45% of participants using accelerometers over a week. Physical activity, sedentary behaviours, quality of life and depressive symptoms are being assessed twice (6 months apart) to examine seasonality effects on behaviours and their associations with quality of life and depressive symptoms. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study received ethical approval from the University of Hong Kong Human Research Ethics Committee for Non-Clinical Faculties (EA270211) and the Department of Health (Hong Kong SAR). Data are stored in a password-protected secure database for 10 years, accessible only to the named researchers. Findings will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals

H α morphologies of star clusters: a LEGUS study of H II region evolution time-scales and stochasticity in low-mass clusters

The morphology of H II regions around young star clusters provides insight into the time-scales and physical processes that clear a cluster’s natal gas. We study ∼700 young clusters (≤10 Myr) in three nearby spiral galaxies (NGC 7793, NGC 4395, and NGC 1313) using Hubble Space Telescope (HST) imaging from LEGUS (Legacy ExtraGalactic Ultraviolet Survey). Clusters are classified by their H α morphology (concentrated, partially exposed, no-emission) and whether they have neighbouring clusters (which could affect the clearing time-scales). Through visual inspection of the HST images, and analysis of ages, reddenings, and stellar masses from spectral energy distributions fitting, together with the (U− B), (V − I) colours, we find (1) the median ages indicate a progression from concentrated (∼3 Myr), to partially exposed (∼4 Myr), to no H α emission (>5 Myr), consistent with the expected temporal evolution of H II regions and previous results. However, (2) similarities in the age distributions for clusters with concentrated and partially exposed H α morphologies imply a short time-scale for gas clearing (≲1 Myr). Also, (3) our cluster sample’s median mass is ∼1000 M⊙, and a significant fraction (∼20 per cent⁠) contain one or more bright red sources (presumably supergiants), which can mimic reddening effects. Finally, (4) the median E(B − V) values for clusters with concentrated H α and those without H α emission appear to be more similar than expected (∼0.18 versus ∼0.14, respectively), but when accounting for stochastic effects, clusters without H α emission are less reddened. To mitigate stochastic effects, we experiment with synthesizing more massive clusters by stacking fluxes of clusters within each H α morphological class. Composite isolated clusters also reveal a colour and age progression for H α morphological classes, consistent with analysis of the individual clusters

Impact of Sequencing Targeted Therapies With High-dose Interleukin-2 Immunotherapy: An Analysis of Outcome and Survival of Patients With Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma From an On-going Observational IL-2 Clinical Trial: PROCLAIM

BACKGROUND: This analysis describes the outcome for patients who received targeted therapy (TT) prior to or following high-dose interleukin-2 (HD IL-2). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with renal cell carcinoma (n = 352) receiving HD IL-2 were enrolled in Proleukin RESULTS: Overall, there were 4% complete response (CR), 13% partial response (PR), 39% stable disease (SD), and 43% progressive disease (PD) with HD IL-2. The median overall survival (mOS) was not reached in patients with CR, PR, or SD, and was 15.5 months in patients with PD (median follow-up, 21 months). Sixty-one patients had prior TT before HD IL-2 with an overall response rate (ORR) to HD IL-2 of 19% (1 CR, 9 PR) and an mOS of 22.1 months. One hundred forty-nine patients received TT only after HD IL-2 with an mOS of 35.5 months. One hundred forty-two patients had no TT before or after HD IL-2, and mOS was not reached. The mOS was 8.5 months in PD patients who received HD IL-2 without follow-on TT and 29.7 months in PD patients who received follow-on TT after HD IL-2. CONCLUSIONS: HD IL-2 as sole front-line therapy, in the absence of added TT, shows extended clinical benefit (CR, PR, and SD). Patients with PD after HD IL-2 appear to benefit from follow-on TT. Patients who progressed on TT and received follow-on HD IL-2 experienced major clinical benefit. HD IL-2 therapy should be considered in eligible patients

Planning for megafauna recovery in the tropical rainforests of Sumatra

Human-induced forest loss has had devastating impacts on biodiversity. Mammal populations in the tropics have been hit particularly hard by the resulting habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation, as well as by overhunting which often goes hand-in-hand. While declines in these populations are generally well documented, few studies offer a pathway for their recovery. Here, we test the association between changes in forest habitat and occupancy trends of Sumatran megafauna (elephant and tiger) and key tiger prey species (wild boar and sambar) in the Leuser Ecosystem: a large forest landscape on the Indonesian island of Sumatra. For elephant and tiger, we develop additional occupancy models to predict their respective spatial distribution under different scenarios of forest loss and gain (through restoration and increased connectivity) to provide a blueprint for avoiding future species loss and assisting with their population recovery. From 2000 to 2019, 254,722 ha (6.7%) of natural forest was converted, primarily to plantations and shrubs. The species-specific responses over the study period revealed that the occurrence of elephant declined along the west, with a range shift to the northeast of Leuser, whereas wild boar underwent a dramatic widespread decline and although sambar experienced losses around the forest edge, it remained widespread in the interior forest, while tiger occupancy remained stable. Modelling habitat loss and fragmentation led to an unsurprising demise of Sumatran megafauna, whereas strategic investments that reconnected several forest patches provided disproportionately large benefits for their recovery through the recolonization of former parts of their range. Indonesia has achieved six consecutive years of declining forest loss rates, and our study’s findings can build off this conservation success by supporting improved provincial spatial planning and field-based restoration efforts that avoid declines of threatened megafauna species and act as a catalyst for rewilding a landscape of global importance

Digital Signal Processing Research Program

Contains table of contents for Section 2, an introduction, reports on twenty-two research projects and a list of publications.Sanders, a Lockheed-Martin Corporation Contract BZ4962U.S. Army Research Laboratory Contract DAAL01-96-2-0001U.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research Grant N00014-93-1-0686National Science Foundation Grant MIP 95-02885U.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research Grant N00014-96-1-0930National Defense Science and Engineering FellowshipU.S. Air Force - Office of Scientific Research Grant F49620-96-1-0072U.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research Grant N00014-95-1-0362National Science Foundation Graduate Research FellowshipAT&T Bell Laboratories Graduate Research FellowshipU.S. Army Research Laboratory Contract DAAL01-96-2-0002National Science Foundation Graduate FellowshipU.S. Army Research Laboratory/Advanced Sensors Federated Lab Program Contract DAAL01-96-2-000

Short-term outcomes of community-based adolescent weight management: The Loozit® Study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Loozit^®Study is a randomised controlled trial investigating extended support in a 24 month community-based weight management program for overweight to moderately obese, but otherwise healthy, 13 to 16 year olds.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This pre-post study examines the two month outcomes of the initial Loozit^®group intervention received by both study arms. Adolescents (n = 151; 48% male) and their parents separately attended seven weekly group sessions focused on lifestyle modification. At baseline and two months, adolescents' anthropometry, blood pressure, and fasted blood sample were assessed. Primary outcomes were two month changes in body mass index (BMI) z-score and waist-to-height-ratio (WHtR). Secondary outcomes included changes in metabolic profile, self-reported dietary intake/patterns, physical and sedentary activities, psychological characteristics and social status. Changes in outcome measures were assessed using paired samples t-tests for continuous variables or McNemar's test for dichotomous categorical variables.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 151 adolescents who enrolled, 130 (86%) completed the two month program. Among these 130 adolescents (47% male), there was a statistically significant (P < 0.01) reduction in mean [95% CI] BMI (0.27 kg/m²[0.41, 0.13]), BMI z-score (0.05 [0.06, 0.03]), WHtR (0.02 [0.03, 0.01]), total cholesterol (0.14 mmol/L [0.24, 0.05]) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (0.12 mmol/L [0.21, 0.04]). There were improvements in all psychological measures, the majority of the dietary intake measures, and some physical activities (P < 0.05). Time spent watching TV and participating in non-screen sedentary activities decreased (P < 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The Loozit^®program may be a promising option for stabilizing overweight and improving various metabolic factors, psychological functioning and lifestyle behaviors in overweight adolescents in a community setting.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry</p> <p><a href="http://www.anzctr.org.au/trial_view.aspx?ID=1277">ACTRNO12606000175572</a></p

Are ribosomal DNA clusters rearrangement hotspots? A case study in the genus Mus (Rodentia, Muridae)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Recent advances in comparative genomics have considerably improved our knowledge of the evolution of mammalian karyotype architecture. One of the breakthroughs was the preferential localization of evolutionary breakpoints in regions enriched in repetitive sequences (segmental duplications, telomeres and centromeres). In this context, we investigated the contribution of ribosomal genes to genome reshuffling since they are generally located in pericentromeric or subtelomeric regions, and form repeat clusters on different chromosomes. The target model was the genus <it>Mus </it>which exhibits a high rate of karyotypic change, a large fraction of which involves centromeres.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The chromosomal distribution of rDNA clusters was determined by <it>in situ </it>hybridization of mouse probes in 19 species. Using a molecular-based reference tree, the phylogenetic distribution of clusters within the genus was reconstructed, and the temporal association between rDNA clusters, breakpoints and centromeres was tested by maximum likelihood analyses. Our results highlighted the following features of rDNA cluster dynamics in the genus <it>Mus</it>: i) rDNA clusters showed extensive diversity in number between species and an almost exclusive pericentromeric location, ii) a strong association between rDNA sites and centromeres was retrieved which may be related to their shared constraint of concerted evolution, iii) 24% of the observed breakpoints mapped near an rDNA cluster, and iv) a substantial rate of rDNA cluster change (insertion, deletion) also occurred in the absence of chromosomal rearrangements.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study on the dynamics of rDNA clusters within the genus <it>Mus </it>has revealed a strong evolutionary relationship between rDNA clusters and centromeres. Both of these genomic structures coincide with breakpoints in the genus <it>Mus</it>, suggesting that the accumulation of a large number of repeats in the centromeric region may contribute to the high level of chromosome repatterning observed in this group. However, the elevated rate of rDNA change observed in the chromosomally invariant clade indicates that the presence of these sequences is insufficient to lead to genome instability. In agreement with recent studies, these results suggest that additional factors such as modifications of the epigenetic state of DNA may be required to trigger evolutionary plasticity.</p