Examining monetary policy transmission in the People's Republic of China – structural change models with a Monetary Policy Index

The financial support of the Irish Research Council and The Paul Tansey Economics Postgraduate Research Scholarship is greatly appreciated.This paper estimates augmented versions of the Investment–Saving curve for the People's Republic of China in an attempt to examine the relationship between monetary policy and the real economy. It endeavors to account for any structural break, nonlinearity, or asymmetry in the transmission process by estimating a breakpoint model and a Markov switching model. The Investment–Saving curve equations are estimated using a Monetary Policy Index, which has been calculated using the Kalman filter. This index will account for the various monetary policy tools, both quantitative and qualitative, that the People's Bank of China has used over the period 1991–2014. The results of this paper suggest that monetary policy has an asymmetric affect depending on the level of output in relation to potential, and that the People's Republic of China's exchange rate policy has restricted the effectiveness of the People's Bank of China's monetary policy response.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Examining monetary policy reaction in the People’s Republic of China – a Markov switching policy index approach

The authors are grateful for the financial support from the Irish Research Council (IRC) and The Paul Tansey Postgraduate Research Scholarship in Economics.This paper estimates a monetary policy rule for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) using a standard OLS estimation and a Markov switching model. As the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) generally uses a battery of instruments in the conduct of its monetary policy, these models are estimated using a constructed monetary policy index (MPI) in place of the traditional interest rate. This allows for a better understanding of the role the PBOC has played in the PRC’s unprecedented economic growth and its relatively low inflation over the last twenty years. This paper will not only examine the unique characteristics of Chinese monetary policy but may also give a more general insight into the dynamics of monetary policy reactions in other emerging markets and economies in transition.PostprintPeer reviewe

Private Sector Credit, Policy and Enforcement: 1978-1982. Quarterly Economic Commentary Special Article, May 1983

This paper is concerned with exammmg certain aspects of the Central Bank's quantitative credit guidelines over the period 1978 to 1982. The sectoral or personal lending guidelines are not considered in this paper. The approach is to consider first the policy aspects to the guidelines and in particular the relationship between the guideline and the external reserve objective. Secondly, the issue of neutralization of interest rates is discussed and some evidence is presented on this matter. Finally, the paper examines how Central Bank enforcement may act as an indicator of the existence and timing of credit rationing and concludes by demonstrating how policy and enforcement combined to cause a reduction in the Associated Banks' relative lending share

The Chinese Phillips curve – inflation dynamics in the presence of structural change

The financial support of the Irish Research Council (IRC) and the Paul Tansey Research Scholarship in Economics are greatly appreciated.This paper models inflation dynamics in China from 1987 to 2014 using a Phillips curve framework. The Phillips curve is generally estimated under the assumption of linearity and parameter constancy. The existence of structural breaks in China’s inflation dynamics make standard linear models inappropriate tools for analysis however. Our results find that the Chinese Phillips curve is characterised by a non-linear relationship. The inflation/output relationship takes the form of a concave curve. This suggests that changes in the level of output effect inflation in China more strongly in periods when output is operating below its potential but the relationship is weaker when output is operating at or above potential. Based on these findings, the People’s Bank of China (PBC) could consider output cost and policy response on a case-by-case basis depending on the level of output in relation to potential.PostprintPeer reviewe

A comparative framework: how broadly applicable is a 'rigorous' critical junctures framework?

The paper tests Hogan and Doyle's (2007, 2008) framework for examining critical junctures. This framework sought to incorporate the concept of ideational change in understanding critical junctures. Until its development, frameworks utilized in identifying critical junctures were subjective, seeking only to identify crisis, and subsequent policy changes, arguing that one invariably led to the other, as both occurred around the same time. Hogan and Doyle (2007, 2008) hypothesized ideational change as an intermediating variable in their framework, determining if, and when, a crisis leads to radical policy change. Here we test this framework on cases similar to, but different from, those employed in developing the exemplar. This will enable us determine whether the framework's relegation of ideational change to a condition of crisis holds, or, if ideational change has more importance than is ascribed to it by this framework. This will also enable us determined if the framework itself is robust, and fit for the purposes it was designed to perform — identifying the nature of policy change

Argonne National Laboratory Reports

This report presents two detailed computerized operating procedures developed to assist and control the shearing and dissolution of irradiated fuel rods. The procedures were employed in the destructive analysis of end-of-life fuel rods from the Light Water Breeder Reactor (LWBR) that was designed by the Westinghouse Electric Corporation Bettis Atomic Power Laboratory. Seventeen entire fuel rods from the end-of-life core of the LWBR were sheared into 169 precisely characterized segments, and more than 150 of these segments were dissolved during execution of the LWBR Proof-of-Breeding (LWBR-POB) Analytical Support Project at Argonne National Laboratory. The procedures illustrate our approaches to process monitoring, data reduction, and quality assurance during the LWBR-POB work

Adherence to colorectal cancer screening guidelines in Canada

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To identify correlates of adherence to colorectal cancer (CRC) screening guidelines in average-risk Canadians.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>2003 Canadian Community Health Survey Cycle 2.1 respondents who were at least 50 years old, without past or present CRC and living in Ontario, Newfoundland, Saskatchewan, and British Columbia were included. Outcomes, defined according to current CRC screening guidelines, included adherence to: i) fecal occult blood test (FOBT) (in prior 2 years), ii) endoscopy (colonoscopy/sigmoidoscopy) (prior 10 years), and iii) adherence to CRC screening guidelines, defined as either (i) or (ii). Generalized estimating equations regression was employed to identify correlates of the study outcomes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 17,498 respondents, 70% were non-adherent CRC screening to guidelines. Specifically, 85% and 79% were non-adherent to FOBT and endoscopy, respectively. Correlates for all outcomes were: having a regular physician (OR = (i) 2.68; (ii) 1.91; (iii) 2.39), getting a flu shot (OR = (i) 1.59; (ii) 1.51; (iii) 1.55), and having a chronic condition (OR = (i) 1.32; (ii) 1.48; (iii) 1.43). Greater physical activity, higher consumption of fruits and vegetables and smoking cessation were each associated with at least 1 outcome. Self-perceived stress was modestly associated with increased odds of adherence to endoscopy and to CRC screening guidelines (OR = (ii) 1.07; (iii) 1.06, respectively).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Healthy lifestyle behaviors and factors that motivate people to seek health care were associated with adherence, implying that invitations for CRC screening should come from sources that are independent of physicians, such as the government, in order to reduce disparities in CRC screening.</p

Population-based analysis of POT1 variants in a cutaneous melanoma case–control cohort

Pathogenic germline variants in the protection of telomeres 1 gene (POT1) have been associated with predisposition to a range of tumour types, including melanoma, glioma, leukaemia and cardiac angiosarcoma. We sequenced all coding exons of the POT1 gene in 2928 European-descent melanoma cases and 3298 controls, identifying 43 protein-changing genetic variants. We performed POT1-telomere binding assays for all missense and stop-gained variants, finding nine variants that impair or disrupt protein–telomere complex formation, and we further define the role of variants in the regulation of telomere length and complex formation through molecular dynamics simulations. We determine that POT1 coding variants are a minor contributor to melanoma burden in the general population, with only about 0.5% of melanoma cases carrying germline pathogenic variants in this gene, but should be screened in individuals with a strong family history of melanoma and/or multiple malignancies