35 research outputs found
Modelling multi-hazards interactions in life-cycle analysis of engineering systems
Complex engineering systems must be designed to sustain the occurrence of multiple
natural and man-made hazards during their service life. To properly quantify multi-hazard effects
on the performance of engineering systems, we need to identify the interactions in both
occurrence rates of multiple hazards and associated consequences. Recent literature has
established a common nomenclature for multi-hazard design, separating occurrence interactions
from consequence interactions. In terms of occurrence, hazards are classified as concurrent (if
they tend to occur simultaneously) and successive (if one hazard intensifies the occurrence rate
of another). In terms of consequences, cascading effects are identified whenever a hazard's
occurrence modifies the system's properties, changing the effects of a subsequent hazard.
However, the available literature mainly looks at the problem from a qualitative perspective that
classifies interactions but does not translate the resulting taxonomy to the mathematical modelling
of the hazards and their effects. This paper aims to fill this gap by identifying modelling
approaches associated with different hazard interdependencies. In particular, we focus on
occurrence interactions, and we develop a simulation-based approach for generating multihazard scenarios (i.e., a sequence of hazard events and associated features through the systemâs
life cycle) based on the theory of competing Poisson processes. The proposed approach
incorporates the different types of interactions in a sequential Monte Carlo sampling method. The
method outputs potential sequences of events throughout a systemâs life cycle, which can be
integrated into LCA frameworks to quantify interacting hazard consequences. A simple
application is presented to illustrate the potential of the proposed method
Accounting for damage accumulation in multi-hazard life-cycle consequence analysis
Most computational risk modelling frameworks for natural hazards do not adequately
address multiple-hazard (or simply multi-hazard) interactions, which can result in inaccurate lifecycle consequence estimates. This can ultimately lead to ineffective decision-making for disastermitigation strategies and resilience-enhancing policies. To address this issue, probabilistic multihazard life-cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis (e.g., assessment of repair costs, downtime,
and casualties over an assetâs service life) can be used for the life-cycle management of critical
assets under uncertainties. Nonetheless, most available formulations fail to account for damage
accumulation effects due to incomplete repairs between hazard events. This paper introduces a
Markovian framework to efficiently analyse multi-hazard LCCon due to deteriorating structural
systems, accounting for complex interactions between hazards and their effects on structural
performance. This framework can be used to test various risk management and adaptation
pathways by modelling the probability of a system being at any performance level after multiple
hazards and the associated repair actions. Expected LCCon estimates are obtained by combining
the performance level distribution with suitable system-level consequence models. A case-study
reinforced concrete building illustrates the proposed framework, considering earthquake-induced
ground motions and environmentally-induced corrosion deterioration over its service life
Time-dependent fragility analysis of deteriorating structural systems under seismic sequences
: Structural systems in seismic-prone areas often experience multiple ground motions
throughout their service life, including mainshocks, aftershocks, and other earthquakes triggered
by mainshocks on nearby fault segments. These successive ground motions can significantly
damage a systemâs structural and non-structural components, leading to significant earthquakeinduced losses. Despite this, the impact of pre-existing damage during ground-motion sequences
is typically disregarded when assessing nonlinear structural performance. Moreover, deterioration
mechanisms caused by environmental factors can worsen damage/losses due to ground-motion
sequences over the system's service life; however, these combined effects are frequently
overlooked. This paper proposes an end-to-end computational methodology to derive fragility
relationships that account for the damage state achieved by a structural system during a prior
ground motion while deteriorating due to chloride-induced corrosion. To this end, a vector-valued
probabilistic seismic demand model is formulated to relate the maximum inter-storey drift of the
first ground motion and the intensity measure of the second ground motion to the dissipated
hysteretic energy during the entire ground-motion sequence for a given corrosion deterioration
level. Furthermore, a vector-valued collapse generalised logistic model is developed to estimate
the probability of collapse, conditioned on the same parameters as the probabilistic seismic
demand model. Monte-Carlo simulation is then employed to model the time-dependent evolution
of fragility relationships' parameters using an appropriate chloride-penetration model, capturing
the continuous nature of the deterioration processes. The proposed methodology is demonstrated
by applying it to a case-study reinforced concrete building, revealing reductions of up to 33.3% in
fragility median values due to deteriorating effects caused by the multi-hazard threat
Financialization the Business Elite?: An Analysis Based on the Composition, Ownership and Boards of Directors af the Upper Echelons of Argentine Business
El artĂculo se propone analizar la presencia de actores provenientes del sector financiero en la propiedad y direcciĂłn de las grandes firmas de Argentina para el perĂodo 2015-2019. Los resultados destacan la importancia de los fondos de inversiĂłn internacionales como accionistas minoritarios de las filiales locales de empresas transnacionales. Por otro lado, señalan que son relativamente pocas las empresas que comparten directores y que la influencia del sector financiero en esas redes es limitada.The article aims to analyze the presence of actors from the financial sector within the ownership and management of big business in Argentina between 2015 and 2019. The results highlight the importance of international investment funds as minority shareholders of local subsidiaries of multinational companies. On the other hand, the findings indicate that there are relatively few firms that share directors and that the influence of the financial sector in these networks is limited.Fil: Gaggero, Alejandro Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones CientĂficas y TĂ©cnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de San MartĂn. Instituto de Altos Estudios Sociales. Centro de Estudios Sociales de la EconomĂa; ArgentinaFil: Navarro Rocha, Leandro Ezequiel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones CientĂficas y TĂ©cnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de San MartĂn. Instituto de Altos Estudios Sociales. Centro de Estudios Sociales de la EconomĂa; ArgentinaFil: Perez Almansi, Bruno Sebastian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones CientĂficas y TĂ©cnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de San MartĂn. Instituto de Altos Estudios Sociales. Centro de Estudios Sociales de la EconomĂa; ArgentinaFil: Gentile, Julia Natalia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones CientĂficas y TĂ©cnicas; Argentina. Universidad Metropolitana para la EducaciĂłn y el Trabajo; Argentin
Pulsating H-deficient WDs and pre-WDs observed with TESS: V. Discovery of two new DBV pulsators, WD J152738.4-450207.4 and WD 1708-871, and asteroseismology of the already known DBV stars PG 1351+489, EC 20058-5234, and EC 04207-4748
The {\sl TESS} space mission has recently demonstrated its great potential to
discover new pulsating white dwarf and pre-white dwarf stars, and to detect
periodicities with high precision in already known white-dwarf pulsators. We
report the discovery of two new pulsating He-rich atmosphere white dwarfs
(DBVs) and present a detailed asteroseismological analysis of three already
known DBV stars employing observations collected by the {\sl TESS} mission
along with ground-based data. We extracted frequencies from the {\sl TESS}
light curves of these DBV stars using a standard pre-whitening procedure to
derive the potential pulsation frequencies. All the oscillation frequencies
that we found are associated with -mode pulsations with periods spanning
from s to s. We find hints of rotation from frequency
triplets in some of the targets, including the two new DBVs. For three targets,
we find constant period spacings, which allowed us to infer their stellar
masses and constrain the harmonic degree of the modes. We also performed
period-to-period fit analyses and found an asteroseismological model for three
targets, with stellar masses generally compatible with the spectroscopic
masses. Obtaining seismological models allowed us to estimate the seismological
distances and compare them with the precise astrometric distances measured with
{\it Gaia}. We find a good agreement between the seismic and the astrometric
distances for three stars (PG~1351+489, EC~200585234, and EC~042074748),
although for the other two stars (WD~J152738.450207 and WD~1708871), the
discrepancies are substantial. The high-quality data from the {\sl TESS}
mission continue to provide important clues to determine the internal structure
of pulsating pre-white dwarf and white dwarf stars through the tools of
asteroseismology.Comment: 22 pages, 27 figures, 21 tables. To be published in Astronomy &
Astrophysic
Resources for assessing parentsâ vaccine hesitancy: a systematic review of the literature
Vaccine hesitancy (VH) is a complex and country-specific issue, responsible for the decreasing vaccination rate and subsequent spread of vaccine-preventable diseases. In literature, several questionnaires were developed to assess VH. The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the published questionnaires assessing parental VH.
The search was conducted in PubMed/Medline, Web of Science and The Cochrane Library, in December 2017, following the PRISMA guidelines. The search strategy included 4 types of keywords: parents, vaccine hesitancy/acceptance, immunization and survey. Only English and Italian original papers were included. 17 reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts. Only the included articles were downloaded in full and, after a second screening, data were extracted and recorded in an ad hoc spreadsheet.
A total of 5,139 articles were retrieved, after duplicates elimination 3,508 papers were screened. After a screening selection, 334 studies were included in the analysis. Most studies were cross-sectional (92.8%), followed by case-control (4.8%) and cohort studies (2.4%). The population interviewed was mainly parents, without any further details (73.1%); mothers were the only parent surveyed in approximately 20% of the studies, while only 1 study involved selectively the fathers. The sample size ranged from 7 to 59,897. Only 38% of the included studies reported both the number and type of items used. Regarding the type, more than half consisted of closed questions, followed by Likert scales, while open-ended questions were used in 14.8% of the surveys. Frequently, the survey was conducted using a self-reported questionnaire or interview. The questionnaires were mostly administered on paper, while online forms were used in 20.1% of the cases. However, 80.2% of the questionnaires were not attached to the paper. HPV vaccine was the most frequently investigated (39.2%), followed by influenza (13.5%) and measles (10.8%). While 22.4% of the articles referred to paediatrics vaccinations in general. Data about the immunization behaviours were reported in 294 studies: the subjects involved showed a behaviour defined as âacceptanceâ in 129 studies (38.6%), as âhesitancy/scepticism/doubtâ in 145 studies (43.1%) and as ârefusalâ in 22 studies (6.6%). This
information was not reported in 12% of the studies.
VH is still a public health challenge, as confirmed by the high number of studies and questionnaires retrieved. This study offers a deeper perspec-
tive on the available questionnaires, helping to identify the best one in terms of aim and study setting.
 
Clinical governance of patients with acute coronary syndromes
Aims Using the principles of clinical governance, a patient-centred approach intended to promote holistic quality improvement, we designed a prospective, multicentre study in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We aimed to verify and quantify consecutive inclusion and describe relative and absolute effects of indicators of quality for diagnosis and therapy. Methods and results Administrative codes for invasive coronary angiography and acute myocardial infarction were used to estimate the ACS universe. The ratio between the number of patients included and the estimated ACS universe was the consecutive index. Co-primary quality indicators were timely reperfusion in patients admitted with ST-elevation ACS and optimal medical therapy at discharge. Cox-proportional hazard models for 1-year death with admission and discharge-specific covariates quantified relative risk reductions and adjusted number needed to treat (NNT) absolute risk reductions. Hospital codes tested had a 99.5% sensitivity to identify ACS universe. We estimated that 7344 (95% CI: 6852-7867) ACS patients were admitted and 5107 were enrolled-i.e. a consecutive index of 69.6% (95% CI 64.9-74.5%), which varied from 30.7 to 79.2% across sites. Timely reperfusion was achieved in 22.4% (95% CI: 20.7-24.1%) of patients, was associated with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for 1-year death of 0.60 (95% CI: 0.40-0.89) and an adjusted NNT of 65 (95% CI: 44-250). Corresponding values for optimal medical therapy were 70.1% (95% CI: 68.7-71.4%), HR of 0.50 (95% CI: 0.38-0.66), and NNT of 98 (95% CI: 79-145). Conclusion A comprehensive approach to quality for patients with ACS may promote equitable access of care and inform implementation of health care delivery. Registration ClinicalTrials.Gov ID NCT0425553
Formazione di giovani leader di sanitĂ pubblica: unâesperienza sperimentale dellâAccademia Lombarda di SanitĂ Pubblica
Introduzione
LâAccademia Lombarda di SanitĂ Pubblica (ALSP), Associazione no-profit fondata nel 2017, ha come obiettivo quello di promuovere il progresso in SanitĂ Pubblica (SP) attraverso il coinvolgimento di studiosi
impegnati a vario titolo nei molteplici ambiti della SP come quello dellâigiene, dellâepidemiologia, della prevenzione, dellâambiente, della direzione sanitarie, dellâedilizia sanitaria, del management, del diritto
e dellâeconomia sanitaria. A tale scopo lâAccademia ha promosso, allâinizio del 2019, lâiniziativa Academy of Young Leader in Public Health (AYLPH). Si tratta di un percorso didattico-scientifico di un anno rivolto a 10 giovani con background formativo differente, fortemente motivati a sviluppare competenze di leadership in SP e giĂ avviati a carriere professionali e di ricerca.
Metodi
Questo percorso formativo per i 10 giovani, selezionati con bando competitivo aperto ai soci, basa il suo metodo didattico-formativo su incontri con riconosciuti leader nazionali e internazionali di SP; visite a istituzioni; collaborazione a progetti di ricerca; training specifico sulla scrittura di lavori scientifici; opportunitĂ di partecipare a convegni nazionali internazionali e a corsi brevi ad hoc.
Risultati
A metĂ programma, le attivitĂ condotte sono state: esperienza di team building in localitĂ montana; incontro con alcune importanti figure impegnate, a vari livelli, nella sanitĂ pubblica come lâex Ministro della salute
Beatrice Lorenzin, lâEditor-in-chief della rivista European Journal of Public Health Peter Allebeck, il Presidente EUPHA Natasha Azzopardi-Muscat oltre ai past-Presidenti EUPHA Walter Ricciardi e Martin Mc
Kee. Ha fatto seguito un corso intensivo sulle revisioni sistematiche che ha visto lâattivazione di 6 gruppi di ricerca coinvolti in altrettanti progetti di revisione sistematica della letteratura. Ulteriori attivitĂ sono state: la partecipazione allâAssemblea Generale dellâOrganizzazione Mondiale della SanitĂ , la partecipazione al Deansâ and Directosâ Retreat dellâASPHER e al Congresso Americano di SanitĂ Pubblica (APHA). Sono in
programma anche un corso di Public speaking, presso lâUniversitĂ di Pisa ed alcuni incontri ad hoc.
Conclusioni
Nel contesto attuale, in cui la salute delle persone Ăš minata da un senso di sfiducia nei confronti delle Istituzioni, dalla mancata equitĂ nellâaccesso alle cure e da stili di vita scorretti, la SP ha necessitĂ di formare nuovi leaders in grado di promuovere valori e guidare al cambiamento individuale, organizzativo e politico. La AYLPH rappresenta unâoccasione formativa di alto livello per giovani professionisti interessati a conoscere e attuare strategie di leadership in SP
Predicting needlestick and sharps injuries in nursing students: Development of the SNNIP scale
© 2020 The Authors. Nursing Open published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Aim: To develop an instrument to investigate knowledge and predictive factors of needlestick and sharps injuries (NSIs) in nursing students during clinical placements. Design: Instrument development and cross-sectional study for psychometric testing. Methods: A self-administered instrument including demographic data, injury epidemiology and predictive factors of NSIs was developed between October 2018âJanuary 2019. Content validity was assessed by a panel of experts. The instrument's factor structure and discriminant validity were explored using principal components analysis. The STROBE guidelines were followed. Results: Evidence of content validity was found (S-CVI 0.75; I-CVI 0.50â1.00). A three-factor structure was shown by exploratory factor analysis. Of the 238 participants, 39% had been injured at least once, of which 67.3% in the second year. Higher perceptions of âpersonal exposureâ (4.06, SD 3.78) were reported by third-year students. Higher scores for âperceived benefitsâ of preventive behaviours (13.6, SD 1.46) were reported by second-year students