Modelling multi-hazards interactions in life-cycle analysis of engineering systems

Complex engineering systems must be designed to sustain the occurrence of multiple natural and man-made hazards during their service life. To properly quantify multi-hazard effects on the performance of engineering systems, we need to identify the interactions in both occurrence rates of multiple hazards and associated consequences. Recent literature has established a common nomenclature for multi-hazard design, separating occurrence interactions from consequence interactions. In terms of occurrence, hazards are classified as concurrent (if they tend to occur simultaneously) and successive (if one hazard intensifies the occurrence rate of another). In terms of consequences, cascading effects are identified whenever a hazard's occurrence modifies the system's properties, changing the effects of a subsequent hazard. However, the available literature mainly looks at the problem from a qualitative perspective that classifies interactions but does not translate the resulting taxonomy to the mathematical modelling of the hazards and their effects. This paper aims to fill this gap by identifying modelling approaches associated with different hazard interdependencies. In particular, we focus on occurrence interactions, and we develop a simulation-based approach for generating multihazard scenarios (i.e., a sequence of hazard events and associated features through the system’s life cycle) based on the theory of competing Poisson processes. The proposed approach incorporates the different types of interactions in a sequential Monte Carlo sampling method. The method outputs potential sequences of events throughout a system’s life cycle, which can be integrated into LCA frameworks to quantify interacting hazard consequences. A simple application is presented to illustrate the potential of the proposed method

Accounting for damage accumulation in multi-hazard life-cycle consequence analysis

Most computational risk modelling frameworks for natural hazards do not adequately address multiple-hazard (or simply multi-hazard) interactions, which can result in inaccurate lifecycle consequence estimates. This can ultimately lead to ineffective decision-making for disastermitigation strategies and resilience-enhancing policies. To address this issue, probabilistic multihazard life-cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis (e.g., assessment of repair costs, downtime, and casualties over an asset’s service life) can be used for the life-cycle management of critical assets under uncertainties. Nonetheless, most available formulations fail to account for damage accumulation effects due to incomplete repairs between hazard events. This paper introduces a Markovian framework to efficiently analyse multi-hazard LCCon due to deteriorating structural systems, accounting for complex interactions between hazards and their effects on structural performance. This framework can be used to test various risk management and adaptation pathways by modelling the probability of a system being at any performance level after multiple hazards and the associated repair actions. Expected LCCon estimates are obtained by combining the performance level distribution with suitable system-level consequence models. A case-study reinforced concrete building illustrates the proposed framework, considering earthquake-induced ground motions and environmentally-induced corrosion deterioration over its service life

Time-dependent fragility analysis of deteriorating structural systems under seismic sequences

: Structural systems in seismic-prone areas often experience multiple ground motions throughout their service life, including mainshocks, aftershocks, and other earthquakes triggered by mainshocks on nearby fault segments. These successive ground motions can significantly damage a system’s structural and non-structural components, leading to significant earthquakeinduced losses. Despite this, the impact of pre-existing damage during ground-motion sequences is typically disregarded when assessing nonlinear structural performance. Moreover, deterioration mechanisms caused by environmental factors can worsen damage/losses due to ground-motion sequences over the system's service life; however, these combined effects are frequently overlooked. This paper proposes an end-to-end computational methodology to derive fragility relationships that account for the damage state achieved by a structural system during a prior ground motion while deteriorating due to chloride-induced corrosion. To this end, a vector-valued probabilistic seismic demand model is formulated to relate the maximum inter-storey drift of the first ground motion and the intensity measure of the second ground motion to the dissipated hysteretic energy during the entire ground-motion sequence for a given corrosion deterioration level. Furthermore, a vector-valued collapse generalised logistic model is developed to estimate the probability of collapse, conditioned on the same parameters as the probabilistic seismic demand model. Monte-Carlo simulation is then employed to model the time-dependent evolution of fragility relationships' parameters using an appropriate chloride-penetration model, capturing the continuous nature of the deterioration processes. The proposed methodology is demonstrated by applying it to a case-study reinforced concrete building, revealing reductions of up to 33.3% in fragility median values due to deteriorating effects caused by the multi-hazard threat

Financialization the Business Elite?: An Analysis Based on the Composition, Ownership and Boards of Directors af the Upper Echelons of Argentine Business

El artículo se propone analizar la presencia de actores provenientes del sector financiero en la propiedad y dirección de las grandes firmas de Argentina para el período 2015-2019. Los resultados destacan la importancia de los fondos de inversión internacionales como accionistas minoritarios de las filiales locales de empresas transnacionales. Por otro lado, señalan que son relativamente pocas las empresas que comparten directores y que la influencia del sector financiero en esas redes es limitada.The article aims to analyze the presence of actors from the financial sector within the ownership and management of big business in Argentina between 2015 and 2019. The results highlight the importance of international investment funds as minority shareholders of local subsidiaries of multinational companies. On the other hand, the findings indicate that there are relatively few firms that share directors and that the influence of the financial sector in these networks is limited.Fil: Gaggero, Alejandro Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de San Martín. Instituto de Altos Estudios Sociales. Centro de Estudios Sociales de la Economía; ArgentinaFil: Navarro Rocha, Leandro Ezequiel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de San Martín. Instituto de Altos Estudios Sociales. Centro de Estudios Sociales de la Economía; ArgentinaFil: Perez Almansi, Bruno Sebastian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de San Martín. Instituto de Altos Estudios Sociales. Centro de Estudios Sociales de la Economía; ArgentinaFil: Gentile, Julia Natalia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Metropolitana para la Educación y el Trabajo; Argentin

Pulsating H-deficient WDs and pre-WDs observed with TESS: V. Discovery of two new DBV pulsators, WD J152738.4-450207.4 and WD 1708-871, and asteroseismology of the already known DBV stars PG 1351+489, EC 20058-5234, and EC 04207-4748

The {\sl TESS} space mission has recently demonstrated its great potential to discover new pulsating white dwarf and pre-white dwarf stars, and to detect periodicities with high precision in already known white-dwarf pulsators. We report the discovery of two new pulsating He-rich atmosphere white dwarfs (DBVs) and present a detailed asteroseismological analysis of three already known DBV stars employing observations collected by the {\sl TESS} mission along with ground-based data. We extracted frequencies from the {\sl TESS} light curves of these DBV stars using a standard pre-whitening procedure to derive the potential pulsation frequencies. All the oscillation frequencies that we found are associated with $g$-mode pulsations with periods spanning from $\sim 190$ s to $\sim 936$ s. We find hints of rotation from frequency triplets in some of the targets, including the two new DBVs. For three targets, we find constant period spacings, which allowed us to infer their stellar masses and constrain the harmonic degree $\ell$ of the modes. We also performed period-to-period fit analyses and found an asteroseismological model for three targets, with stellar masses generally compatible with the spectroscopic masses. Obtaining seismological models allowed us to estimate the seismological distances and compare them with the precise astrometric distances measured with {\it Gaia}. We find a good agreement between the seismic and the astrometric distances for three stars (PG~1351+489, EC~20058$-$5234, and EC~04207$-$4748), although for the other two stars (WD~J152738.4$-$50207 and WD~1708$-$871), the discrepancies are substantial. The high-quality data from the {\sl TESS} mission continue to provide important clues to determine the internal structure of pulsating pre-white dwarf and white dwarf stars through the tools of asteroseismology.Comment: 22 pages, 27 figures, 21 tables. To be published in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Resources for assessing parents’ vaccine hesitancy: a systematic review of the literature

Vaccine hesitancy (VH) is a complex and country-specific issue, responsible for the decreasing vaccination rate and subsequent spread of vaccine-preventable diseases. In literature, several questionnaires were developed to assess VH. The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the published questionnaires assessing parental VH. The search was conducted in PubMed/Medline, Web of Science and The Cochrane Library, in December 2017, following the PRISMA guidelines. The search strategy included 4 types of keywords: parents, vaccine hesitancy/acceptance, immunization and survey. Only English and Italian original papers were included. 17 reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts. Only the included articles were downloaded in full and, after a second screening, data were extracted and recorded in an ad hoc spreadsheet. A total of 5,139 articles were retrieved, after duplicates elimination 3,508 papers were screened. After a screening selection, 334 studies were included in the analysis. Most studies were cross-sectional (92.8%), followed by case-control (4.8%) and cohort studies (2.4%). The population interviewed was mainly parents, without any further details (73.1%); mothers were the only parent surveyed in approximately 20% of the studies, while only 1 study involved selectively the fathers. The sample size ranged from 7 to 59,897. Only 38% of the included studies reported both the number and type of items used. Regarding the type, more than half consisted of closed questions, followed by Likert scales, while open-ended questions were used in 14.8% of the surveys. Frequently, the survey was conducted using a self-reported questionnaire or interview. The questionnaires were mostly administered on paper, while online forms were used in 20.1% of the cases. However, 80.2% of the questionnaires were not attached to the paper. HPV vaccine was the most frequently investigated (39.2%), followed by influenza (13.5%) and measles (10.8%). While 22.4% of the articles referred to paediatrics vaccinations in general. Data about the immunization behaviours were reported in 294 studies: the subjects involved showed a behaviour defined as “acceptance” in 129 studies (38.6%), as “hesitancy/scepticism/doubt” in 145 studies (43.1%) and as “refusal” in 22 studies (6.6%). This information was not reported in 12% of the studies. VH is still a public health challenge, as confirmed by the high number of studies and questionnaires retrieved. This study offers a deeper perspec- tive on the available questionnaires, helping to identify the best one in terms of aim and study setting.     &nbsp

Clinical governance of patients with acute coronary syndromes

Aims Using the principles of clinical governance, a patient-centred approach intended to promote holistic quality improvement, we designed a prospective, multicentre study in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We aimed to verify and quantify consecutive inclusion and describe relative and absolute effects of indicators of quality for diagnosis and therapy. Methods and results Administrative codes for invasive coronary angiography and acute myocardial infarction were used to estimate the ACS universe. The ratio between the number of patients included and the estimated ACS universe was the consecutive index. Co-primary quality indicators were timely reperfusion in patients admitted with ST-elevation ACS and optimal medical therapy at discharge. Cox-proportional hazard models for 1-year death with admission and discharge-specific covariates quantified relative risk reductions and adjusted number needed to treat (NNT) absolute risk reductions. Hospital codes tested had a 99.5% sensitivity to identify ACS universe. We estimated that 7344 (95% CI: 6852-7867) ACS patients were admitted and 5107 were enrolled-i.e. a consecutive index of 69.6% (95% CI 64.9-74.5%), which varied from 30.7 to 79.2% across sites. Timely reperfusion was achieved in 22.4% (95% CI: 20.7-24.1%) of patients, was associated with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for 1-year death of 0.60 (95% CI: 0.40-0.89) and an adjusted NNT of 65 (95% CI: 44-250). Corresponding values for optimal medical therapy were 70.1% (95% CI: 68.7-71.4%), HR of 0.50 (95% CI: 0.38-0.66), and NNT of 98 (95% CI: 79-145). Conclusion A comprehensive approach to quality for patients with ACS may promote equitable access of care and inform implementation of health care delivery. Registration ClinicalTrials.Gov ID NCT0425553

Formazione di giovani leader di sanità pubblica: un’esperienza sperimentale dell’Accademia Lombarda di Sanità Pubblica

Introduzione L’Accademia Lombarda di Sanità Pubblica (ALSP), Associazione no-profit fondata nel 2017, ha come obiettivo quello di promuovere il progresso in Sanità Pubblica (SP) attraverso il coinvolgimento di studiosi impegnati a vario titolo nei molteplici ambiti della SP come quello dell’igiene, dell’epidemiologia, della prevenzione, dell’ambiente, della direzione sanitarie, dell’edilizia sanitaria, del management, del diritto e dell’economia sanitaria. A tale scopo l’Accademia ha promosso, all’inizio del 2019, l’iniziativa Academy of Young Leader in Public Health (AYLPH). Si tratta di un percorso didattico-scientifico di un anno rivolto a 10 giovani con background formativo differente, fortemente motivati a sviluppare competenze di leadership in SP e già avviati a carriere professionali e di ricerca. Metodi Questo percorso formativo per i 10 giovani, selezionati con bando competitivo aperto ai soci, basa il suo metodo didattico-formativo su incontri con riconosciuti leader nazionali e internazionali di SP; visite a istituzioni; collaborazione a progetti di ricerca; training specifico sulla scrittura di lavori scientifici; opportunità di partecipare a convegni nazionali internazionali e a corsi brevi ad hoc. Risultati A metà programma, le attività condotte sono state: esperienza di team building in località montana; incontro con alcune importanti figure impegnate, a vari livelli, nella sanità pubblica come l’ex Ministro della salute Beatrice Lorenzin, l’Editor-in-chief della rivista European Journal of Public Health Peter Allebeck, il Presidente EUPHA Natasha Azzopardi-Muscat oltre ai past-Presidenti EUPHA Walter Ricciardi e Martin Mc Kee. Ha fatto seguito un corso intensivo sulle revisioni sistematiche che ha visto l’attivazione di 6 gruppi di ricerca coinvolti in altrettanti progetti di revisione sistematica della letteratura. Ulteriori attività sono state: la partecipazione all’Assemblea Generale dell’Organizzazione Mondiale della Sanità, la partecipazione al Deans’ and Directos’ Retreat dell’ASPHER e al Congresso Americano di Sanità Pubblica (APHA). Sono in programma anche un corso di Public speaking, presso l’Università di Pisa ed alcuni incontri ad hoc. Conclusioni Nel contesto attuale, in cui la salute delle persone è minata da un senso di sfiducia nei confronti delle Istituzioni, dalla mancata equità nell’accesso alle cure e da stili di vita scorretti, la SP ha necessità di formare nuovi leaders in grado di promuovere valori e guidare al cambiamento individuale, organizzativo e politico. La AYLPH rappresenta un’occasione formativa di alto livello per giovani professionisti interessati a conoscere e attuare strategie di leadership in SP

Predicting needlestick and sharps injuries in nursing students: Development of the SNNIP scale

© 2020 The Authors. Nursing Open published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Aim: To develop an instrument to investigate knowledge and predictive factors of needlestick and sharps injuries (NSIs) in nursing students during clinical placements. Design: Instrument development and cross-sectional study for psychometric testing. Methods: A self-administered instrument including demographic data, injury epidemiology and predictive factors of NSIs was developed between October 2018–January 2019. Content validity was assessed by a panel of experts. The instrument's factor structure and discriminant validity were explored using principal components analysis. The STROBE guidelines were followed. Results: Evidence of content validity was found (S-CVI 0.75; I-CVI 0.50–1.00). A three-factor structure was shown by exploratory factor analysis. Of the 238 participants, 39% had been injured at least once, of which 67.3% in the second year. Higher perceptions of “personal exposure” (4.06, SD 3.78) were reported by third-year students. Higher scores for “perceived benefits” of preventive behaviours (13.6, SD 1.46) were reported by second-year students