A "superstorm": When moral panic and new risk discourses converge in the media

This is an Author's Accepted Manuscript of an article published in Health, Risk and Society, 15(6), 681-698, 2013, copyright Taylor & Francis, available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/13698575.2013.851180.There has been a proliferation of risk discourses in recent decades but studies of these have been polarised, drawing either on moral panic or new risk frameworks to analyse journalistic discourses. This article opens the theoretical possibility that the two may co-exist and converge in the same scare. I do this by bringing together more recent developments in moral panic thesis, with new risk theory and the concept of media logic. I then apply this theoretical approach to an empirical analysis of how and with what consequences moral panic and new risk type discourses converged in the editorials of four newspaper campaigns against GM food policy in Britain in the late 1990s. The article analyses 112 editorials published between January 1998 and December 2000, supplemented with news stories where these were needed for contextual clarity. This analysis shows that not only did this novel food generate intense media and public reactions; these developed in the absence of the type of concrete details journalists usually look for in risk stories. Media logic is important in understanding how journalists were able to engage and hence how a major scare could be constructed around convergent moral panic and new risk type discourses. The result was a media ‘superstorm’ of sustained coverage in which both types of discourse converged in highly emotive mutually reinforcing ways that resonated in a highly sensitised context. The consequence was acute anxiety, social volatility and the potential for the disruption of policy and social change

Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model - II: forecast error statistics

A 24-member ensemble of 1-h high-resolution forecasts over the Southern United Kingdom is used to study short-range forecast error statistics. The initial conditions are found from perturbations from an ensemble transform Kalman filter. Forecasts from this system are assumed to lie within the bounds of forecast error of an operational forecast system. Although noisy, this system is capable of producing physically reasonable statistics which are analysed and compared to statistics implied from a variational assimilation system. The variances for temperature errors for instance show structures that reflect convective activity. Some variables, notably potential temperature and specific humidity perturbations, have autocorrelation functions that deviate from 3-D isotropy at the convective-scale (horizontal scales less than 10 km). Other variables, notably the velocity potential for horizontal divergence perturbations, maintain 3-D isotropy at all scales. Geostrophic and hydrostatic balances are studied by examining correlations between terms in the divergence and vertical momentum equations respectively. Both balances are found to decay as the horizontal scale decreases. It is estimated that geostrophic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 75 km, and hydrostatic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 35 km, although more work is required to validate these findings. The implications of these results for high-resolution data assimilation are discussed

Monte Carlo simulation of the transmission of measles: Beyond the mass action principle

We present a Monte Carlo simulation of the transmission of measles within a population sample during its growing and equilibrium states by introducing two different vaccination schedules of one and two doses. We study the effects of the contact rate per unit time $\xi$ as well as the initial conditions on the persistence of the disease. We found a weak effect of the initial conditions while the disease persists when $\xi$ lies in the range 1/L-10/L ($L$ being the latent period). Further comparison with existing data, prediction of future epidemics and other estimations of the vaccination efficiency are provided. Finally, we compare our approach to the models using the mass action principle in the first and another epidemic region and found the incidence independent of the number of susceptibles after the epidemic peak while it strongly fluctuates in its growing region. This method can be easily applied to other human, animals and vegetable diseases and includes more complicated parameters.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, Submitted to Phys.Rev.

A translational framework for public health research

<p><b>Background</b></p> <p>The paradigm of translational medicine that underpins frameworks such as the Cooksey report on the funding of health research does not adequately reflect the complex reality of the public health environment. We therefore outline a translational framework for public health research.</p> <p><b>Discussion</b></p> <p>Our framework redefines the objective of translation from that of institutionalising effective interventions to that of improving population health by influencing both individual and collective determinants of health. It incorporates epidemiological perspectives with those of the social sciences, recognising that many types of research may contribute to the shaping of policy, practice and future research. It also identifies a pivotal role for evidence synthesis and the importance of non-linear and intersectoral interfaces with the public realm.</p> <p><b>Summary</b></p> <p>We propose a research agenda to advance the field and argue that resources for 'applied' or 'translational' public health research should be deployed across the framework, not reserved for 'dissemination' or 'implementation'.</p&gt

The effective action of D6-branes in N=1 type IIA orientifolds

We use a Kaluza-Klein reduction to compute the low-energy effective action for the massless modes of a spacetime-filling D6-brane wrapped on a special Lagrangian 3-cycle of a type IIA Calabi-Yau orientifold. The modifications to the characteristic data of the N=1 bulk orientifold theory in the presence of a D6-brane are analysed by studying the underlying Type IIA supergravity coupled to the brane worldvolume in the democratic formulation and performing a detailed dualisation procedure. The N=1 chiral coordinates are found to be in agreement with expectations from mirror symmetry. We work out the Kahler potential for the chiral superfields as well as the gauge kinetic functions for the bulk and the brane gauge multiplets including the kinetic mixing between the two. The scalar potential resulting from the dualisation procedure can be formally interpreted in terms of a superpotential. Finally, the gauging of the Peccei-Quinn shift symmetries of the complex structure multiplets reproduces the D-term potential enforcing the calibration condition for special Lagrangian 3-cycles.Comment: 48 pages, v2: typos corrected, references adde

Evidences for a quasi 60-year North Atlantic Oscillation since 1700 and its meaning for global climate change

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) obtained using instrumental and documentary proxy predictors from Eurasia is found to be characterized by a quasi 60-year dominant oscillation since 1650. This pattern emerges clearly once the NAO record is time integrated to stress its comparison with the temperature record. The integrated NAO (INAO) is found to well correlate with the length of the day (since 1650) and the global surface sea temperature record HadSST2 and HadSST3 (since 1850). These findings suggest that INAO can be used as a good proxy for global climate change, and that a 60-year cycle exists in the global climate since at least 1700. Finally, the INAO ~60-year oscillation well correlates with the ~60- year oscillations found in the historical European aurora record since 1700, which suggests that this 60-year dominant climatic cycle has a solar-astronomical origin

The ESR1 (6q25) locus is associated with calcaneal ultrasound parameters and radial volumetric bone mineral density in European men

<p><b>Purpose:</b> Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 6q25, which incorporates the oestrogen receptor alpha gene (ESR1), as a quantitative trait locus for areal bone mineral density (BMD(a)) of the hip and lumbar spine. The aim of this study was to determine the influence of this locus on other bone health outcomes; calcaneal ultrasound (QUS) parameters, radial peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) parameters and markers of bone turnover in a population sample of European men.</p> <p><b>Methods:</b> Eight single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in the 6q25 locus were genotyped in men aged 40-79 years from 7 European countries, participating in the European Male Ageing Study (EMAS). The associations between SNPs and measured bone parameters were tested under an additive genetic model adjusting for centre using linear regression.</p> <p><b>Results:</b> 2468 men, mean (SD) aged 59.9 (11.1) years had QUS measurements performed and bone turnover marker levels measured. A subset of 628 men had DXA and pQCT measurements. Multiple independent SNPs showed significant associations with BMD using all three measurement techniques. Most notably, rs1999805 was associated with a 0.10 SD (95%CI 0.05, 0.16; p = 0.0001) lower estimated BMD at the calcaneus, a 0.14 SD (95%CI 0.05, 0.24; p = 0.004) lower total hip BMD(a), a 0.12 SD (95%CI 0.02, 0.23; p = 0.026) lower lumbar spine BMD(a) and a 0.18 SD (95%CI 0.06, 0.29; p = 0.003) lower trabecular BMD at the distal radius for each copy of the minor allele. There was no association with serum levels of bone turnover markers and a single SNP which was associated with cortical density was also associated with cortical BMC and thickness.</p> <p><b>Conclusions:</b> Our data replicate previous associations found between SNPs in the 6q25 locus and BMD(a) at the hip and extend these data to include associations with calcaneal ultrasound parameters and radial volumetric BMD.</p&gt

On Solving the Coronal Heating Problem

This article assesses the current state of understanding of coronal heating, outlines the key elements of a comprehensive strategy for solving the problem, and warns of obstacles that must be overcome along the way.Comment: Accepted by Solar Physics; Published by Solar Physic