Sex distribution of offspring-parents obesity: Angel's hypothesis revisited

This study, which is based on two cross sectional surveys' data, aims to establish any effect of parental obesity sex distribution of offspring and to replicate the results that led to the hypothesis that obesity may be associated with sex-linked recessive lethal gene. A representative sample of 4,064 couples living in Renfrew/Paisley, Scotland was surveyed 1972-1976. A total of 2,338 offspring from 1,477 of the couples screened in 1972-1976, living in Paisley, were surveyed in 1996. In this study, males represented 47.7% among the total offspring of the couples screened in 1972-1976. In the first survey there was a higher male proportion of offspring (53%, p < 0.05) from parents who were both obese, yet this was not significant after adjustment for age of parents. Also, there were no other significant differences in sex distribution of offspring according to body mass index, age, or social class of parents. The conditions of the original 1949 study of Angel (1949) (which proposed a sex-linked lethal recessive gene) were simulated by selecting couples with at least one obese daughter. In this subset, (n = 409), obesity in fathers and mothers was associated with 26% of offspring being male compared with 19% of offspring from a non-obese father and obese mother. Finally we conclude that families with an obese father have a higher proportion of male offspring. These results do not support the long-established hypotheses of a sex-linked recessive lethal gene in the etiology of obesity

MR diffusion changes in the perimeter of the lateral ventricles demonstrate periventricular injury in post-hemorrhagic hydrocephalus of prematurity

OBJECTIVES: Injury to the preterm lateral ventricular perimeter (LVP), which contains the neural stem cells responsible for brain development, may contribute to the neurological sequelae of intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) and post-hemorrhagic hydrocephalus of prematurity (PHH). This study utilizes diffusion MRI (dMRI) to characterize the microstructural effects of IVH/PHH on the LVP and segmented frontal-occipital horn perimeters (FOHP). STUDY DESIGN: Prospective study of 56 full-term infants, 72 very preterm infants without brain injury (VPT), 17 VPT infants with high-grade IVH without hydrocephalus (HG-IVH), and 13 VPT infants with PHH who underwent dMRI at term equivalent. LVP and FOHP dMRI measures and ventricular size-dMRI correlations were assessed. RESULTS: In the LVP, PHH had consistently lower FA and higher MD and RD than FT and VPT (p\u3c.050). However, while PHH FA was lower, and PHH RD was higher than their respective HG-IVH measures (p\u3c.050), the MD and AD values did not differ. In the FOHP, PHH infants had lower FA and higher RD than FT and VPT (p\u3c.010), and a lower FA than the HG-IVH group (p\u3c.001). While the magnitude of AD in both the LVP and FOHP were consistently less in the PHH group on pairwise comparisons to the other groups, the differences were not significant (p\u3e.050). Ventricular size correlated negatively with FA, and positively with MD and RD (p\u3c.001) in both the LVP and FOHP. In the PHH group, FA was lower in the FOHP than in the LVP, which was contrary to the observed findings in the healthy infants (p\u3c.001). Nevertheless, there were no regional differences in AD, MD, and RD in the PHH group. CONCLUSION: HG-IVH and PHH results in aberrant LVP/FOHP microstructure, with prominent abnormalities among the PHH group, most notably in the FOHP. Larger ventricular size was associated with greater magnitude of abnormality. LVP/FOHP dMRI measures may provide valuable biomarkers for future studies directed at improving the management and neurological outcomes of IVH/PHH

Monte Carlo simulation of the transmission of measles: Beyond the mass action principle

We present a Monte Carlo simulation of the transmission of measles within a population sample during its growing and equilibrium states by introducing two different vaccination schedules of one and two doses. We study the effects of the contact rate per unit time $\xi$ as well as the initial conditions on the persistence of the disease. We found a weak effect of the initial conditions while the disease persists when $\xi$ lies in the range 1/L-10/L ($L$ being the latent period). Further comparison with existing data, prediction of future epidemics and other estimations of the vaccination efficiency are provided. Finally, we compare our approach to the models using the mass action principle in the first and another epidemic region and found the incidence independent of the number of susceptibles after the epidemic peak while it strongly fluctuates in its growing region. This method can be easily applied to other human, animals and vegetable diseases and includes more complicated parameters.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, Submitted to Phys.Rev.

Quantum statistical effects in nano-oscillator arrays

We have theoretically predicted the density of states(DOS), the low temperature specific heat, and Brillouin scattering spectra of a large, free standing array of coupled nano-oscillators. We have found significant gaps in the DOS of 2D elastic systems, and predict the average DOS to be nearly independent of frequency over a broad band f < 50GHz. At low temperatures, the measurements probe the quantum statistics obeyed by rigid body modes of the array and, thus, could be used to verify the quantization of the associated energy levels. These states, in turn, involve center-of mass motion of large numbers of atoms, N > 1.e14, and therefore such observations would extend the domain in which quantum mechanics has been experimentally tested. We have found the required measurement capability to carry out this investigation to be within reach of current technology.Comment: 1 tex file, 3 figures, 1 bbl fil

A "superstorm": When moral panic and new risk discourses converge in the media

This is an Author's Accepted Manuscript of an article published in Health, Risk and Society, 15(6), 681-698, 2013, copyright Taylor & Francis, available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/13698575.2013.851180.There has been a proliferation of risk discourses in recent decades but studies of these have been polarised, drawing either on moral panic or new risk frameworks to analyse journalistic discourses. This article opens the theoretical possibility that the two may co-exist and converge in the same scare. I do this by bringing together more recent developments in moral panic thesis, with new risk theory and the concept of media logic. I then apply this theoretical approach to an empirical analysis of how and with what consequences moral panic and new risk type discourses converged in the editorials of four newspaper campaigns against GM food policy in Britain in the late 1990s. The article analyses 112 editorials published between January 1998 and December 2000, supplemented with news stories where these were needed for contextual clarity. This analysis shows that not only did this novel food generate intense media and public reactions; these developed in the absence of the type of concrete details journalists usually look for in risk stories. Media logic is important in understanding how journalists were able to engage and hence how a major scare could be constructed around convergent moral panic and new risk type discourses. The result was a media ‘superstorm’ of sustained coverage in which both types of discourse converged in highly emotive mutually reinforcing ways that resonated in a highly sensitised context. The consequence was acute anxiety, social volatility and the potential for the disruption of policy and social change

Convective initiation and storm life‐cycles in convection‐permitting simulations of the Met Office Unified Model over South Africa

Convective initiation is a challenge for convection‐permitting models due to its sensitivity to sub‐km processes. We evaluate the representation of convective storms and their initiation over South Africa during four summer months in Met Office Unified Model simulations at 1.5‐km horizontal grid length. Storm size distributions from the model compare well against radar observations, but rainfall in the model is predominantly produced by large storms (50 km in diameter or larger) in the evening, whereas radar observations show most rainfall occurs throughout the afternoon, from storms 10‐50 km in diameter. In all months, modelled maximum number of storm initiations occurs at least 2 hours prior to the radar‐observed maximum. However, the diurnal cycle of rainfall compares well between model and observations, suggesting the numerous storm initiations in the simulations do not produce much rainfall. Modelled storms are generally less intense than in the radar observations, especially in early summer. In February, when tropical influences dominate, the simulated storms are of similar intensity to observed storms. Simulated storms tend to reach their peak intensity in the first 15 minutes after initiation, then gradually become less intense as they grow. In radar observations, storms reach their peak intensity 15‐30 minutes into their life cycle, stay intense as they grow larger, then gradually weaken after they have reached their maximum diameter. Two November case studies of severe convection are analysed in detail. Higher resolution grid length initiates convection slightly earlier (300 m cf. 1.5 km) with the same science settings. Two 1.5‐km simulations that apply more sub‐grid mixing have delayed convective initiation. Analysis of soundings indicates little difference in convective indices, suggesting that differences in convection may be attributed to choices in sub‐grid mixing parameters

Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model - II: forecast error statistics

A 24-member ensemble of 1-h high-resolution forecasts over the Southern United Kingdom is used to study short-range forecast error statistics. The initial conditions are found from perturbations from an ensemble transform Kalman filter. Forecasts from this system are assumed to lie within the bounds of forecast error of an operational forecast system. Although noisy, this system is capable of producing physically reasonable statistics which are analysed and compared to statistics implied from a variational assimilation system. The variances for temperature errors for instance show structures that reflect convective activity. Some variables, notably potential temperature and specific humidity perturbations, have autocorrelation functions that deviate from 3-D isotropy at the convective-scale (horizontal scales less than 10 km). Other variables, notably the velocity potential for horizontal divergence perturbations, maintain 3-D isotropy at all scales. Geostrophic and hydrostatic balances are studied by examining correlations between terms in the divergence and vertical momentum equations respectively. Both balances are found to decay as the horizontal scale decreases. It is estimated that geostrophic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 75 km, and hydrostatic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 35 km, although more work is required to validate these findings. The implications of these results for high-resolution data assimilation are discussed

Mobile applications for obesity and weight management: current market characteristics

Mobile-Health (mHealth) is the fastest-developing eHealth sector, with over 100 000 health applications (apps) currently available. Overweight/obesity is a problem of wide public concern that is potentially treatable/preventable through mHealth. This study describes the current weight-management app-market. Five app stores (Apple, Google, Amazon, Windows and Blackberry) in UK, US, Russia, Japan and Germany, Italy, France, China, Australia and Canada were searched for keywords: 'weight', 'calorie', 'weight-loss', 'slimming', 'diet', 'dietitian' and 'overweight' in January/February 2016 using App-Annie software. The 10 most downloaded apps in the lifetime of an app were recorded. Developers' lists and the app descriptions were searched to identify any professional input with keywords 'professional', 'dietitian' and 'nutritionist'. A total of 28 905 relevant apps were identified as follows: Apple iTunes=8559 (4634, 54% paid), Google Play=1762 (597, 33.9% paid), Amazon App=13569 (4821, 35.5% paid), Windows=2419 (819, 17% paid) and Blackberry=2596 (940, 36% paid). The 28 905 identified apps focused mainly on physical activity (34%), diet (31%), and recording/monitoring of exercise, calorie intake and body weight (23%). Only 17 apps (0.05%) were developed with identifiable professional input. Apps on weight management are widely available and very popular but currently lack professional content expertise. Encouraging app development based on evidence-based online approaches would assure content quality, allowing healthcare professionals to recommend their use

Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model—I: description of the system and the impact of radar-derived surface precipitation rates

A key strategy to improve the skill of quantitative predictions of precipitation, as well as hazardous weather such as severe thunderstorms and flash floods is to exploit the use of observations of convective activity (e.g. from radar). In this paper, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) aimed at addressing the problems of forecasting localized weather events with relatively short predictability time scale and based on a 1.5 km grid-length version of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Particular attention is given to the impact of using predicted observations of radar-derived precipitation intensity in the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) used within the EPS. Our initial results based on the use of a 24-member ensemble of forecasts for two summer case studies show that the convective-scale EPS produces fairly reliable forecasts of temperature, horizontal winds and relative humidity at 1 h lead time, as evident from the inspection of rank histograms. On the other hand, the rank histograms seem also to show that the EPS generates too much spread for forecasts of (i) surface pressure and (ii) surface precipitation intensity. These may indicate that for (i) the value of surface pressure observation error standard deviation used to generate surface pressure rank histograms is too large and for (ii) may be the result of non-Gaussian precipitation observation errors. However, further investigations are needed to better understand these findings. Finally, the inclusion of predicted observations of precipitation from radar in the 24-member EPS considered in this paper does not seem to improve the 1-h lead time forecast skill

Engaging patients, clinicians and health funders in weight management: the Counterweight Programme.

Background. The Counterweight Programme provides an evidence based and effective approach for weight management in routine primary care. Uptake of the programme has been variable for practices and patients. Aim. To explore key barriers and facilitators of practice and patient engagement in the Counterweight Programme and to describe key strategies used to address barriers in the wider implementation of this weight management programme in UK primary care. Methods. All seven weight management advisers participated in a focus group. In-depth interviews were conducted with purposeful samples of GPs (n = 7) and practice nurses (n = 15) from 11 practices out of the 65 participating in the programme. A total of 37 patients participated through a mixture of in-depth interviews (n = 18) and three focus groups. Interviews and focus groups were analysed for key themes that emerged. Results. Engagement of practice staff was influenced by clinicians beliefs and attitudes, factors relating to the way the programme was initiated and implemented, the programme content and organizational/contextual factors. Patient engagement was influenced by practice endorsement of the programme, clear understanding of programme goals, structured proactive follow-up and perception of positive outcomes. Conclusions. Having a clear understanding of programme goals and expectations, enhancing self-efficacy in weight management and providing proactive follow-up is important for engaging both practices and patients. The widespread integration of weight management programmes into routine primary care is likely to require supportive public policy