Uniting mathematics and biology for control of visceral leishmaniasis

The neglected tropical disease (NTD) visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been targeted by the WHO for elimination as a public health problem on the Indian subcontinent by 2017 or earlier. To date there is a surprising scarcity of mathematical models capable of capturing VL disease dynamics, which are widely considered central to planning and assessing the efficacy of interventions. The few models that have been developed are examined, highlighting the necessity for better data to parameterise and fit these and future models. In particular, the characterisation and infectiousness of the different disease stages will be crucial to elimination. Modelling can then assist in establishing whether, when, and how the WHO VL elimination targets can be met

Variations in visceral leishmaniasis burden, mortality and the pathway to care within Bihar, India

BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been targeted by the WHO for elimination as a public health problem (< 1 case/10,000 people/year) in the Indian sub-continent (ISC) by 2020. Bihar State in India, which accounts for the majority of cases in the ISC, remains a major target for this elimination effort. However, there is considerable spatial, temporal and sub-population variation in occurrence of the disease and the pathway to care, which is largely unexplored and a threat to achieving the target. METHODS: Data from 6081 suspected VL patients who reported being clinically diagnosed during 2012-2013 across eight districts in Bihar were analysed. Graphical comparisons and Chi-square tests were used to determine differences in the burden of identified cases by season, district, age and sex. Log-linear regression models were fitted to onset (of symptoms)-to-diagnosis and onset-to-treatment waiting times to estimate their associations with age, sex, district and various socio-economic factors (SEFs). Logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with mortality. RESULTS: Comparisons of VL caseloads suggested an annual cycle peaking in January-March. A 17-fold variation in the burden of identified cases across districts and under-representation of young children (0-5 years) relative to age-specific populations in Bihar were observed. Women accounted for a significantly lower proportion of the reported cases than men (41 vs 59%, P < 0.0001). Age, district of residence, house wall materials, caste, treatment cost, travelling for diagnosis and the number of treatments for symptoms before diagnosis were identified as correlates of waiting times. Mortality was associated with age, district of residence, onset-to-treatment waiting time, treatment duration, cattle ownership and cost of diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The distribution of VL in Bihar is highly heterogeneous, and reported caseloads and associated mortality vary significantly across different districts, posing different challenges to the elimination campaign. Socio-economic factors are important correlates of these differences, suggesting that elimination will require tailoring to population and sub-population circumstances

Cluster randomised trial and development of a sandfly sex pheromone lure to reduce Leishmania infantum infection

Introduction: Vector control tools are needed to combat leishmaniasis. A semi-synthetic version of a Lutzomyia longipalpis aggregation/sex pheromone (9-methlygermacrene-B) has been developed, and shown efficacy to attract sandflies in the lab and to chicken sheds in the field. Here, we present results from a cluster-randomised trial performed in Brazil where we test the efficacy of the pheromone deployed with insecticide, a novel lure-and-kill intervention, to reduce leishmaniasis transmission to the canine reservoir. Aim: Investigate the efficacy of sandfly sex pheromone baited + insecticide treated chicken roosts to reduce transmission of Leishmania infantum among the reservoir population (dogs). Methods: We conducted a cluster-randomised trial across 42 communities in Brazil. Pheromone lures plus insecticide were applied in 14 communities, and outcomes compared to that of 28 other communities that received either a placebo (sham lure + insecticide) or deltamethrin-impregnated collars fitted to dogs. We quantify the primary intervention effects by comparison of the number of uninfected dogs that seroconverted in each arm over the course of the 2-year trial. Results: A reduction in canine incidence is attributed to the pheromone + insecticide intervention, which is consistent across the levels of hierarchical analysis, though the errors are broad. The performance of the pheromone followed similar patterns as the collar arm which significantly reduced seroconversion incidence. Conclusion: These data represent the first trial of a synthetic vector pheromone applied in public health control, and the first cluster-randomised trial of dog collars in Brazil. Both methods show potential for the control of zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis in the Americas; developments of the pheromone lure-and-kill strategy are underway

Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases

Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination ‘as a public health problem’ when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models’ predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020

Policy Recommendations From Transmission Modeling for the Elimination of Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Indian Subcontinent.

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been targeted by the World Health Organization (WHO) and 5 countries in the Indian subcontinent for elimination as a public health problem. To achieve this target, the WHO has developed guidelines consisting of 4 phases of different levels of interventions, based on vector control through indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) and active case detection (ACD). Mathematical transmission models of VL are increasingly used for planning and assessing the efficacy of interventions and evaluating the intensity and timescale required to achieve the elimination target

Elimination of visceral leishmaniasis on the Indian subcontinent: a comparison of multiple transmission models

On the Indian subcontinent (ISC), visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2020. The elimination target is defined as an annual VL incidence of &lt;1 per 10 000 capita at (sub-)district level. Interventions focus on vector control, surveillance and on diagnosing and treating VL cases.</p

Elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent: a comparison of predictions from three transmission models.

We present three transmission models of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent (ISC) with structural differences regarding the disease stage that provides the main contribution to transmission, including models with a prominent role of asymptomatic infection, and fit them to recent case data from 8 endemic districts in Bihar, India. Following a geographical cross-validation of the models, we compare their predictions for achieving the WHO VL elimination targets with ongoing treatment and vector control strategies. All the transmission models suggest that the WHO elimination target (&lt;1 new VL case per 10,000 capita per year at sub-district level) is likely to be met in Bihar, India, before or close to 2020 in sub-districts with a pre-control incidence of 10 VL cases per 10,000 people per year or less, when current intervention levels (60% coverage of indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide and a delay of 40days from onset of symptoms to treatment (OT)) are maintained, given the accuracy and generalizability of the existing data regarding incidence and IRS coverage. In settings with a pre-control endemicity level of 5/10,000, increasing the effective IRS coverage from 60 to 80% is predicted to lead to elimination of VL 1-3 years earlier (depending on the particular model), and decreasing OT from 40 to 20days to bring elimination forward by approximately 1year. However, in all instances the models suggest that L. donovani transmission will continue after 2020 and thus that surveillance and control measures need to remain in place until the longer-term aim of breaking transmission is achieved

The role of case proximity in transmission of visceral leishmaniasis in a highly endemic village in Bangladesh

Data collection containing: [1] Odds ratios for VL and asymptomatic infection risk based on proximity to infected individuals (S1 Table); [2] Definitions of model likelihood and deviance information criterion, and details of MCMC algorithm (S1 Text); [3] Data on visceral leishmaniasis status and leishmanin skin test status of 2494 individuals in the study area, including dates of onset, diagnosis, treatment, and, where applicable, relapse and treatment for relapse for 183 VL cases (S1 Data); [4] Matrix of pairwise distances between all individuals in the study (S2 Data); [5] Metadata for S1 and S2 Data (S3 Data); [6] Locations of VL cases in para 2 by year of onset, 1999-2004 (S1 Fig); [7] Locations of VL cases in para 3 by year of onset, 1999-2004 (S2 Fig); [8] Deviance distributions for the different models (S3 Fig

Sustaining visceral leishmaniasis elimination in Bangladesh – Could a policy brief help?

Bangladesh has made significant progress towards elimination of visceral leishmaniasis, and is on track to achieve its target of less than one case per 10,000 inhabitants in each subdistrict in 2017. As the incidence of disease falls, it is likely that the political capital and financial resources dedicated towards the elimination of visceral leishmaniasis may decrease, raising the prospect of disease resurgence. Policy memos may play a crucial role during the transition of the elimination plan from the 'attack' to the 'consolidation' and 'maintenance' phases, highlighting key stakeholders and areas where ongoing investment is crucial. An example of a policy brief is outlined in this paper. The background to the current elimination efforts is highlighted, with emphasis on remaining uncertainties including the impact of disease reservoirs and sustainable surveillance strategies. A stakeholder map is provided outlining the current and projected future activities of key bodies. Identification of key stakeholders subsequently frames the discussion of three key policy recommendations in the Bangladeshi context for the transition to the consolidation and maintenance phases of the elimination program. Recommendations include determining optimal vector control and surveillance strategies, shifting the emphasis towards horizontal integration of disease programs, and prioritising remaining research questions with a focus on operational and technical capacity. Achieving elimination is as much a political as a scientific question. Integrating the discussion of key stakeholders with policy priorities and the research agenda provides a novel insight into potential pathways forwards in the elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in Bangladesh and in the rest of the Indian subcontinent