A Multi-Season Study of the Effects of MODIS Sea-Surface Temperatures on Operational WRF Forecasts at NWS Miami, FL

Studies at the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center have suggested that the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea-surface temperature (SST) composites in regional weather forecast models can have a significant positive impact on short-term numerical weather prediction in coastal regions. Recent work by LaCasse et al (2007, Monthly Weather Review) highlights lower atmospheric differences in regional numerical simulations over the Florida offshore waters using 2-km SST composites derived from the MODIS instrument aboard the polar-orbiting Aqua and Terra Earth Observing System satellites. To help quantify the value of this impact on NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), the SPORT Center and the NWS WFO at Miami, FL (MIA) are collaborating on a project to investigate the impact of using the high-resolution MODIS SST fields within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) prediction system. The project's goal is to determine whether more accurate specification of the lower-boundary forcing within WRF will result in improved land/sea fluxes and hence, more accurate evolution of coastal mesoscale circulations and the associated sensible weather elements. The NWS MIA is currently running WRF in real-time to support daily forecast operations, using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical core within the NWS Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software. Twenty-seven hour forecasts are run dally initialized at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC on a domain with 4-km grid spacing covering the southern half of Florida and adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Each model run is initialized using the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) analyses available in AWIPS. The SSTs are initialized with the NCEP Real-Time Global (RTG) analyses at 1/12deg resolution (approx.9 km); however, the RTG product does not exhibit fine-scale details consistent with its grid resolution. SPORT is conducting parallel WRF EMS runs identical to the operational runs at NWS MIA except for the use of MODIS SST composites in place of the RTG product as the initial and boundary conditions over water, The MODIS SST composites for initializing the SPORT WRF runs are generated on a 2-km grid four times daily at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC, based on the times of the overhead passes of the Aqua and Terra satellites. The incorporation of the MODIS SST data into the SPORT WRF runs is staggered such that SSTs are updated with a new composite every six hours in each of the WRF runs. From mid-February to July 2007, over 500 parallel WRF simulations have been collected for analysis and verification. This paper will present verification results comparing the NWS MIA operational WRF runs to the SPORT experimental runs, and highlight any substantial differences noted in the predicted mesoscale phenomena for specific cases

Role of polymorphisms in codons 143 and 160 of the O6-alkylguanine DNA alkyltransferase gene in lung cancer risk

O6-Alkylguanine DNA alkyltransferase (AGT) plays an important role in the repair of alkylating agent-induced DNA damage and protection from the carcinogenic effects of environmental agents. To examine the importance of the AGT codon 143 and codon 160 polymorphisms in risk for lung cancer and to assess the prevalence of these polymorphisms in different racial groups, we performed genotype analysis of lung cancer patients and matched controls. The prevalence of the AGT143Val allele in controls was 0.07 in Caucasians and 0.03 in African Americans. The AGT143Val allele was not detected in an unmatched Asian control cohort. The prevalence of the AGT160Arg variant allele was 0.01 in Caucasians, 0.02 in African Americans, and 0.03 in Asians. A marginally significant association was observed between the AGT codon 143 (isoleucine/valine) genotype and risk for lung cancer (odds ratio = 2.1; 95% confidence interval = 1.01– 4.7). The prevalence of the AGT160Arg variant allele was similar in lung cancer cases versus matched controls. These results suggest that the AGT codon 143 polymorphism may play an important role in risk for lung cancer

Comparison of magnetic resonance imaging and computed tomography for breast target volume delineation in prone and supine positions

Purpose To\ua0determine whether T2-weighted MRI improves seroma cavity (SC) and whole breast (WB) interobserver conformity for radiation therapy purposes, compared with the gold standard of CT, both in the prone and supine positions. Methods and Materials Eleven observers (2 radiologists and 9 radiation oncologists) delineated SC and WB clinical target volumes (CTVs) on T2-weighted MRI and CT supine and prone scans (4 scans per patient) for 33 patient datasets. Individual observer's volumes were compared using the Dice similarity coefficient, volume overlap index, center of mass shift, and Hausdorff distances. An average cavity visualization score was also determined. Results Imaging modality did not affect interobserver variation for WB CTVs. Prone WB CTVs were larger in volume and more conformal than supine CTVs (on both MRI and CT). Seroma cavity volumes were larger on CT than on MRI. Seroma cavity volumes proved to be comparable in interobserver conformity in both modalities (volume overlap index of 0.57\ua0(95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.54-0.60) for CT supine and 0.52\ua0(95% CI 0.48-0.56) for MRI supine, 0.56\ua0(95% CI 0.53-0.59) for CT prone and 0.55\ua0(95% CI 0.51-0.59) for MRI prone); however, after registering modalities together the intermodality variation (Dice similarity coefficient of 0.41\ua0(95% CI 0.36-0.46) for supine and 0.38\ua0(0.34-0.42) for prone) was larger than the interobserver variability for SC, despite the location typically remaining constant. Conclusions Magnetic resonance imaging interobserver variation was comparable to CT for the WB CTV and SC delineation, in both prone and supine positions. Although the cavity visualization score and interobserver concordance was not significantly higher for MRI than for CT, the SCs were smaller on MRI, potentially owing to clearer SC definition, especially on T2-weighted MR images

Survival Improvements in Adolescents and Young Adults after Myeloablative Allogeneic Transplantation for Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

AbstractAdolescents and young adults (AYAs, ages 15 to 40 years) with cancer have not experienced survival improvements to the same extent as younger and older patients. We compared changes in survival after myeloablative allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) for acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) among children (n = 981), AYAs (n = 1218), and older adults (n = 469) who underwent transplantation over 3 time periods: 1990 to 1995, 1996 to 2001, and 2002 to 2007. Five-year survival varied inversely with age group. Survival improved over time in AYAs and paralleled that seen in children; however, overall survival did not change over time for older adults. Survival improvements were primarily related to lower rates of early treatment-related mortality in the most recent era. For all cohorts, relapse rates did not change over time. A subset of 222 AYAs between the ages of 15 and 25 at 46 pediatric or 49 adult centers were also analyzed to describe differences by center type. In this subgroup, there were differences in transplantation practices among pediatric and adult centers, although HCT outcomes did not differ by center type. Survival for AYAs undergoing myeloablative allogeneic HCT for ALL improved at a similar rate as survival for children

Published at Univ. of Calif

AbstrAct: New regulatory restrictions have been placed on the use of some second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides in the United States, and in some situations this action may be offset by expanded use of first-generation compounds. We have recently conducted several studies with captive adult American kestrels and eastern screech-owls examining the toxicity of diphacinone (DPN) using both acute oral and short-term dietary exposure regimens. Diphacinone evoked overt signs of intoxication and lethality in these raptors at exposure doses that were 20 to 30 times lower than reported for traditionally used wildlife test species (mallard and northern bobwhite). Sublethal exposure of kestrels and owls resulted in prolonged clotting time, reduced hematocrit, and/or gross and histological evidence of hemorrhage at daily doses as low as 0.16 mg DPN/kg body weight. Findings also demonstrated that DPN was far more potent in short-term 7-day dietary studies than in single-day acute oral exposure studies. Incorporating these kestrel and owl data into deterministic and probabilistic risk assessments indicated that the risks associated with DPN exposure for raptors are far greater than predicted in analyses using data from mallards and bobwhite. These findings can assist natural resource managers in weighing the costs and benefits of anticoagulant rodenticide use in pest control and eradication programs

Relationship of Race/Ethnicity and Survival after Single Umbilical Cord Blood Transplantation for Adults and Children with Leukemia and Myelodysplastic Syndromes

The relationship of race/ethnicity with outcomes of umbilical cord blood transplantation (UCBT) is not well known. We analyzed the association between race/ethnicity and outcomes of unrelated single UCBT for leukemia and myelodysplastic syndromes. Our retrospective cohort study consisted of 885 adults and children (612 whites, 145 blacks, and 128 Hispanics) who received unrelated single UCBT for leukemia and myelodysplastic syndromes between 1995 and 2006 and were reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research. A 5-6/6 HLA-matched unit with a total nucleated cell count infused of ≥2.5 × 107/kg was given to 40% white and 42% Hispanic, but only 21% black patients. Overall survival at 2 years was 44% for whites, 34% for blacks, and 46% for Hispanics (P = .008). In multivariate analysis adjusting for patient, disease, and treatment factors (including HLA match and cell dose), blacks had inferior overall survival (relative risk of death, 1.31; P = .02), whereas overall survival of Hispanics was similar (relative risk, 1.03; P = .81) to that of whites. For all patients, younger age, early-stage disease, use of units with higher cell dose, and performance status ≥80 were independent predictors of improved survival. Black patients and white patients infused with well-matched cords had comparable survival; similarly, black and white patients receiving units with adequate cell dose had similar survival. These results suggest that blacks have inferior survival to whites after single UCBT, but outcomes are improved when units with a higher cell dose are used

Reduced-Intensity Conditioning with Fludarabine, Cyclophosphamide, and High-Dose Rituximab for Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation for Follicular Lymphoma: A Phase Two Multicenter Trial from the Blood and Marrow Transplant Clinical Trials Network

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (alloHCT) can induce long term remissions in chemosensitive relapsed follicular lymphoma (FL). The BMT CTN conducted a multicenter phase 2 trial to examine the efficacy of alloHCT using reduced intensity conditioning (RIC) with rituximab (RTX) in multiply relapsed, chemosensitive FL. The primary endpoint was 2 year progression-free survival (PFS). The conditioning regimen consisted of fludarabine, cyclophosphamide and high-dose RTX (FCR) in which 3 of the 4 doses of RTX were administered at a dose of 1 gm/m2. Graft vs host disease (GvHD) prophylaxis was with tacrolimus and methotrexate. Sixty five patients were enrolled and 62 were evaluable. Median age was 55 years (range, 29-74). This group was heavily pre-treated: 77% had received ≥ 3 prior regimens, 32% had received ≥ 5 prior regimens and 11% had received prior autologous HCT. Donors were HLA-matched siblings (n=33) or HLA-matched unrelated adults (n=29). No graft failures occurred. The overall response rate after HCT was 94% with 90% in complete remission (CR), including 24 patients not in CR before alloHCT. With a median follow-up of 47 months (range, 30-73), 3 year PFS and overall survival rates were 71% (95% confidence interval: 58%-81%) and 82% (70%-90%) respectively. Three year cumulative incidences of relapse/progression and non-relapse mortality were 13% and 16%, respectively. Two year cumulative incidences of grade 2-4 and grade 3-4 acute GvHD were 27% and 10%, respectively and extensive chronic GvHD incidence was 55%. Serum RTX concentrations peaked at day +28 and remained detectable as late as 1 year in 59% of patients with available data. In conclusion, alloHCT with FCR conditioning confers high CR rates, a low incidence of relapse/progression and excellent survival probabilities in heavily pretreated FL patients

No barrier to emergence of bathyal king crabs on the Antarctic shelf

Cold-water conditions have excluded durophagous (skeleton-breaking) predators from the Antarctic seafloor for millions of years. Rapidly warming seas off the western Antarctic Peninsula could now facilitate their return to the continental shelf, with profound consequences for the endemic fauna. Among the likely first arrivals are king crabs (Lithodidae), which were discovered recently on the adjacent continental slope. During the austral summer of 2010‒2011, we used underwater imagery to survey a slope-dwelling population of the lithodid Paralomis birsteini off Marguerite Bay, western Antarctic Peninsula for environmental or trophic impediments to shoreward expansion. The population density averaged ∼4.5 individuals × 1,000 m(−2) within a depth range of 1,100‒1,500 m (overall observed depth range 841–2,266 m). Images of juveniles, discarded molts, and precopulatory behavior, as well as gravid females in a trapping study, suggested a reproductively viable population on the slope. At the time of the survey, there was no thermal barrier to prevent the lithodids from expanding upward and emerging on the outer shelf (400- to 550-m depth); however, near-surface temperatures remained too cold for them to survive in inner-shelf and coastal environments (<200 m). Ambient salinity, composition of the substrate, and the depth distribution of potential predators likewise indicated no barriers to expansion of lithodids onto the outer shelf. Primary food resources for lithodids—echinoderms and mollusks—were abundant on the upper slope (550–800 m) and outer shelf. As sea temperatures continue to rise, lithodids will likely play an increasingly important role in the trophic structure of subtidal communities closer to shore

High-Energy Radiation from Thunderstorms with ADELE: TGFs, Steps, and Glows

The biggest challenge in the study of high-energy processes in thunderstorms is getting a detector to the vicinity of the electrically active regions of a storm. The Airborne Detector for Energetic Lightning Emissions (ADELE) has been used to detect gamma rays from aircraft above storms and from a storm-chasing van on the ground. In August 2009, ADELE flew above Florida storms in a Gulfstream V jet, detecting the first terrestrial gamma-ray flash (TGF) seen from a plane and continuous glows of high-energy emission above thunderclouds. The presence of these glows suggests that a gradual process of relativistic runaway and feedback may help limit the total amount of charging in thunderstorms, in contrast to the traditional view that only lightning discharges compete with the charging process. The upper limits on TGF emission from intracloud and cloud-to-ground lightning from the ADELE flights demonstrated conclusively that a TGF of the sort seen from space is not associated with most lightning and not necessary to trigger it. In August 2010, observations from a van detected stepped-leader x-ray emission from at least four lightning strikes in ten days of operations. This mode of operation is therefore promising for future observations of the stepping process, although a more varied suite of instrumentation, in particular a flash-distance detector, would be useful. We will report on these results and on future possibilities for ADELE campaigns

Normal Values of Circulating IGF-I Bioactivity in the Healthy Population: Comparison with five widely used IGF-I immunoassays

Background: IGF-I immunoassays are primarily used to estimate IGF-I bioactivity. Recently, an IGFI specific Kinase Receptor Activation Assay (KIRA) has been developed as an alternative method. However, no normative values have been established for the IGF-I KIRA. Objective: To establish normative values for the IGF-I KIRA in healthy adults. Design: Cross-sectional study in healthy non-fasting blood donors. Study participants: 426 healthy individuals (310 M, 116 F; age range: 18 – 79 yrs) Main outcome Measures: IGF-I bioactivity determined by the KIRA. Results were compared with total IGF-I, measured by five different IGF-I immunoassays. Results: Mean (± SD) IGF-I bioactivity was 423 (± 131) pmol/L and decreased with age (β = -3.4 pmol/L/yr, p < 0.001). In subjects younger than 55 yrs mean IGF-I bioactivity was significantly higher in women than in men. Above this age this relationship was inverse, suggesting a drop in IGF-I bioactivity after menopause. This drop was not reflected in total IGF-I levels. IGF-I bioactivity was significantly related to total IGF-I (rs varied between 0.46 – 0.52; P-values < 0.001). Conclusions: We established age-specific normative values for the IGF-I KIRA. We observed a significant drop in IGF-I bioactivity in women between 50 and 60 years, which was not perceived by IGF-I immunoassays. The IGF-I KIRA, when compared to IGF-I immunoassays, theoretically has the advantage that it measures net effects of IGF-binding proteins on IGF-I receptor activation. However, it has to be proven whether information obtained by the IGF-I KIRA is clinically more relevant than measurements obtained by IGF-I immunoassays