Developing multiscale and integrative nature–people scenarios using the Nature Futures Framework

1. Scientists have repeatedly argued that transformative, multiscale global scenarios are needed as tools in the quest to halt the decline of biodiversity and achieve sustainability goals. 2. As a first step towards achieving this, the researchers who participated in the scenarios and models expert group of the Intergovernmental Science‐Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) entered into an iterative, participatory process that led to the development of the Nature Futures Framework (NFF). 3. The NFF is a heuristic tool that captures diverse, positive relationships of humans with nature in the form of a triangle. It can be used both as a boundary object for continuously opening up more plural perspectives in the creation of desirable nature scenarios and as an actionable framework for developing consistent nature scenarios across multiple scales. 4. Here we describe the methods employed to develop the NFF and how it fits into a longer term process to create transformative, multiscale scenarios for nature. We argue that the contribution of the NFF is twofold: (a) its ability to hold a plurality of perspectives on what is desirable, which enables the development of joint goals and visions and recognizes the possible convergence and synergies of measures to achieve these visions and (b), its multiscale functionality for elaborating scenarios and models that can inform decision‐making at relevant levels, making it applicable across specific places and perspectives on nature. 5. If humanity is to achieve its goal of a more sustainable and prosperous future rooted in a flourishing nature, it is critical to open up a space for more plural perspectives of human–nature relationships. As the global community sets out to develop new goals for biodiversity, the NFF can be used as a navigation tool helping to make diverse, desirable futures possible

Developing multiscale and integrative nature–people scenarios using the Nature Futures Framework

1. Scientists have repeatedly argued that transformative, multiscale global scenarios are needed as tools in the quest to halt the decline of biodiversity and achieve sustainability goals. 2. As a first step towards achieving this, the researchers who participated in the scenarios and models expert group of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) entered into an iterative, participatory process that led to the development of the Nature Futures Framework (NFF). 3. The NFF is a heuristic tool that captures diverse, positive relationships of humans with nature in the form of a triangle. It can be used both as a boundary object for continuously opening up more plural perspectives in the creation of desirable nature scenarios and as an actionable framework for developing consistent nature scenarios across multiple scales. 4. Here we describe the methods employed to develop the NFF and how it fits into a longer term process to create transformative, multiscale scenarios for nature. We argue that the contribution of the NFF is twofold: (a) its ability to hold a plurality of perspectives on what is desirable, which enables the development of joint goals and visions and recognizes the possible convergence and synergies of measures to achieve these visions and (b), its multiscale functionality for elaborating scenarios and models that can inform decision-making at relevant levels, making it applicable across specific places and perspectives on nature. 5. If humanity is to achieve its goal of a more sustainable and prosperous future rooted in a flourishing nature, it is critical to open up a space for more plural per- spectives of human–nature relationships. As the global community sets out to de- velop new goals for biodiversity, the NFF can be used as a navigation tool helping to make diverse, desirable futures possible

New EU-scale environmental scenarios until 2050 – scenario process and initial scenario applications

Understanding uncertainties and risks can be considered to be the main motivation behind environmental scenario studies to assess potential economic, environmental, social or technical developments and their expected consequences for society and environment. The scenario study presented in this paper was designed to contribute to the question of how natural capital and ecosystem services may evolve in Europe under different socio-environmental conditions. The study was conducted as part of OpenNESS, an on-going EU FP7 research project. We present the iterative participatory scenario process, the storylines and drivers, examples for regional applications, as well as initial feedback from stakeholders. In a participatory iterative approach four scenarios were developed for the period to 2050, involving regional and EU-level users and stakeholders. Subsequently, scenarios were successfully contextualised and applied in regional place-based studies under widely differing socio-environmental conditions. Regional teams used different approaches to adapt storylines and drivers to the regional contexts. In an internal evaluation process among regional stakeholders some participants expressed concerns about the scenario method. Suggestions are made how to overcome these limitations. However, most participants approved the scenario method, especially in terms of provoking discussions, and confirmed the usefulness and applicability of the approach

Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales

Monitoring of Long-Lasting Effects of Fumigation with Dimethyl Disulfide (DMDS) on Root-Gall Index, Root-Knots, Other Nematode Populations, and Crop Yield over Three Protected Cucumber Crops in Bulgaria

In order to evaluate the long-term effect of the new fumigant DMDS and its potential to be a part of IPM of root-knot nematodes, a two-year experiment was conducted on cucumber in a greenhouse in Bulgaria. In the first year, DMDS was applied in comparison with farmer nematicide strategy and untreated control in the first cucumber crop. After two consequent catch crops—lettuce in the winter period—a second cucumber crop followed in spring–summer. In this crop, the DMDS effect was studied with no treatment and was integrated into the post-planting strategy with Trichoderma spp. and garlic extract at plots previously treated with DMDS. The effect of DMDS was followed until 450 days after fumigation. Nematocidal efficacy of DMDS was 96% and the yield increased 65.5% in the first cucumber crop, and 80% and 100% in the second cucumber crop, respectively, when nothing was done or a combined strategy with Trichoderma spp. and garlic extract was followed. The DMDS effect on 44 non-target soil nematode genera was also followed. The negative impact of the fumigation was limited in time as non-target nematode communities regained previous crop levels in five months during our study. Therefore, DMDS can be properly included in soil IPM programmes and appears very promising for the protected crop industry in Europe

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation via transaortic surgical access

Представяме случай на 80-годишна пациентка със симптоматична високостепенна аортна стеноза и известна исхемична болест на сърцето, по повод на която е проведена предходна кардиохирургична реваскуларизация. Пациентката е високорискова за конвенционално кардиохирургично аортно клапно протезиране (SAVR) предвид наличната коморбидност и напредналата ѝ възраст, поради което при нея се предприе стратегия за транскатетърна аортна клапна имплантация (TAVI). Наличната подлежаща генерализирана атеросклероза създаде трудности при избора на подходящ съдов достъп за процедурата. При пациентката се използва трансаортен достъп, който бе техническо предизвикателство, с оглед запазването целостта на функциониращия аортокоронарен байпас при повторната стернотомия. Този клиничен случай демонстрира, че липсата на подходящ трансфеморален достъп за транскатетърно аортно клапно протезиране сам по себе си не е противопоказание за извършване на процедурата, а напротив трябва да служи като стимул за търсене и използване на нови и алтернативни съдови достъпи. We report a case of an 80-years–old patient with a severe, symptomatic aortic valve stenosis and history of ischemic heart disease, previously treated by coronary artery bypass graft surgery. The patient was contraindicated for conventional surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) due to advanced age and underlying comorbidity, therefore transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has been offered. The access options for the procedure were restricted by the underlying generalized atherosclerosis process causing peripheral vessel disease. We have chosen transaortic access for the patient which in that case was the only possible option. The transaortic valve implantation was successful with satisfactory hemodynamic results, improvement in functional class heart failure of the patient and preserving the function and anatomy of the coronary artery bypass graft. This case report demonstrates that the lack of favorable transfemoral access for TAVI should not be a limitation by itself for the procedure, rather than be stimulus for searching and using new and alternative access for it

A review of studies assessing ecosystem services provided by urban green and blue infrastructure

Urban green and blue infrastructure (GBI) and associated ecosystem services (ES) are increasingly recognized for their potential to address urban sustainability challenges. This has resulted in an increase in studies quantifying ES in cities. In this review, we analysed 850 peer-reviewed publications to characterize urban ES assessment in terms of geographical location, urban GBI type and methodological aspects (e.g. ES indicators). The analyses covered six ES: local temperature regulation, stormwater regulation, waste treatment, air quality regulation, pollination, and recreation and aesthetic appreciation. The majority of ES assessments focused on local temperature regulation (36%) and recreation and aesthetic appreciation (23%) and assessments were often conducted within unspecified green space (30%) and parks (26%). A common method to assess GBI performance was the comparison of ES delivery along a gradient of vegetation cover (24%). Moreover, assessments used a wide variety of ES indicators. Most assessments quantified ecosystem properties (59%), while a minority assessed actual benefits to people, recognized values or societal demands. To advance insights in the effectiveness of GBI, we recommend increased research attention towards i) increasing the coverage of less studied ES, GBI types and geographical regions, ii) quantifying actual benefits of GBI by comparing ES supply and societal demand, and iii) comparing effectiveness across different GBI types and in relation to grey infrastructure

The effectiveness of levocetirizine and desloratadine in up to 4 times conventional doses in difficult-to-treat urticaria.

Background H1-antihistamines are first line treatment of chronic urticaria, but many patients do not get satisfactory relief with recommended doses. European guidelines recommend increased antihistamine doses of up to 4-fold.Objective To provide supportive evidence for the European guidelines.Methods Eighty tertiary referral patients with chronic urticaria (age range, 19-67 years) were randomized for double-blind treatment with levocetirizine or desloratadine (40/40). Treatment started at the conventional daily dose of 5 mg and then increased weekly to 10 mg, 20 mg, or 20 mg of the opposite drug if relief of symptoms was incomplete. Wheal and pruritus scores, quality of life, patient discomfort, somnolence, and safety were assessed.Results Thirteen patients became symptom-free at 5 mg (9 levocetirizine vs 4 desloratadine), compared with 28 subjects on the higher doses of 10 mg (8/7) and 20 mg (5/1). Of the 28 patients nonresponsive to 20 mg desloratadine, 7 became symptom-free with 20 mg levocetirizine. None of the 18 levocetirizine nonresponders benefited with 20 mg desloratadine. Increasing antihistamine doses improved quality of life but did not increase somnolence. Analysis of the effect of treatment on discomfort caused by urticaria showed great individual heterogeneity of antihistamine responsiveness: 15% of patients were good responders, 10% were nonresponders, and 75% were responders to higher than conventional antihistamine doses. No serious or severe adverse effects warranting discontinuation of treatment occurred with either drug.Conclusion Increasing the dosage of levocetirizine and desloratadine up to 4-fold improves chronic urticaria symptoms without compromising safety in approximately three quarters of patients with difficult-to-treat chronic urticaria.<br/

Pathways for agriculture and forestry to contribute to terrestrial biodiversity conservation : A global scenario-study

If the world stays on its current development path, the state of biodiversity will continue to decline. This is due to projected further increases in pressures, most prominently habitat loss and climate change. In order to reduce these pressures, biodiversity conservation and restoration, as well as sustainable resource use, needs to be an integral part of sustainable development strategies of primary production sectors, such as agriculture, forestry, fisheries and energy. This paper presents a model-based analysis of three alternative pathways described as Global Technology, Decentralized Solutions and Consumption Change to conserve biodiversity. Each of these pathways pursues international biodiversity goals together with a broader set of environmental sustainability objectives, including feeding the world, universal access to modern energy, limiting climate change and controlling air pollution. We show that different combinations of bio-physical measures, ecosystem management changes and behavioural changes can globally substantially reduce biodiversity loss in the coming decades (avoided Mean Species Abundance (MSA) loss is 4.4–4.8% MSA, compared to 9.5% MSA loss in the Trend), although the types of biodiversity conserved in the pathways will be different. The agricultural and forestry sectors together have until 2010 globally caused almost 60% of the total reduction in terrestrial biodiversity in MSA terms and 55% of the expected loss up to 2050. We show that increased productivity by technological improvements, increased use of ecological methods in agriculture and forestry, and consumption changes help to avoid biodiversity loss by 3.1–3.5% MSA. In addition, combinations of pathways, taking into account specific regional contexts, might result in even larger reduction of biodiversity loss. The changes needed in the agricultural and forestry sector to achieve this go well beyond current efforts to reduce their impact on biodiversity

Pathways for agriculture and forestry to contribute to terrestrial biodiversity conservation : A global scenario-study

If the world stays on its current development path, the state of biodiversity will continue to decline. This is due to projected further increases in pressures, most prominently habitat loss and climate change. In order to reduce these pressures, biodiversity conservation and restoration, as well as sustainable resource use, needs to be an integral part of sustainable development strategies of primary production sectors, such as agriculture, forestry, fisheries and energy. This paper presents a model-based analysis of three alternative pathways described as Global Technology, Decentralized Solutions and Consumption Change to conserve biodiversity. Each of these pathways pursues international biodiversity goals together with a broader set of environmental sustainability objectives, including feeding the world, universal access to modern energy, limiting climate change and controlling air pollution. We show that different combinations of bio-physical measures, ecosystem management changes and behavioural changes can globally substantially reduce biodiversity loss in the coming decades (avoided Mean Species Abundance (MSA) loss is 4.4–4.8% MSA, compared to 9.5% MSA loss in the Trend), although the types of biodiversity conserved in the pathways will be different. The agricultural and forestry sectors together have until 2010 globally caused almost 60% of the total reduction in terrestrial biodiversity in MSA terms and 55% of the expected loss up to 2050. We show that increased productivity by technological improvements, increased use of ecological methods in agriculture and forestry, and consumption changes help to avoid biodiversity loss by 3.1–3.5% MSA. In addition, combinations of pathways, taking into account specific regional contexts, might result in even larger reduction of biodiversity loss. The changes needed in the agricultural and forestry sector to achieve this go well beyond current efforts to reduce their impact on biodiversity