Design of a cooperative problem-solving system for enroute flight planning: An empirical study of its use by airline dispatchers

In a previous report, an empirical study of 30 pilots using the Flight Planning Testbed was reported. An identical experiment using the Flight Planning Testbed (FPT), except that 27 airline dispatchers were studied, is described. Five general questions were addressed in this study: (1) under what circumstances do the introduction of computer-generated suggestions (flight plans) influence the planning behavior of dispatchers (either in a beneficial or adverse manner); (2) what is the nature of such influences (i.e., how are the person's cognitive processes changed); (3) how beneficial are the general design concepts underlying FPT (use of a graphical interface, embedding graphics in a spreadsheet, etc.); (4) how effective are the specific implementation decisions made in realizing these general design concepts; and (5) how effectively do dispatchers evaluate situations requiring replanning, and how effectively do they identify appropriate solutions to these situations

Design of a cooperative problem-solving system for en-route flight planning: An empirical evaluation

Both optimization techniques and expert systems technologies are popular approaches for developing tools to assist in complex problem-solving tasks. Because of the underlying complexity of many such tasks, however, the models of the world implicitly or explicitly embedded in such tools are often incomplete and the problem-solving methods fallible. The result can be 'brittleness' in situations that were not anticipated by the system designers. To deal with this weakness, it has been suggested that 'cooperative' rather than 'automated' problem-solving systems be designed. Such cooperative systems are proposed to explicitly enhance the collaboration of the person (or a group of people) and the computer system. This study evaluates the impact of alternative design concepts on the performance of 30 airline pilots interacting with such a cooperative system designed to support enroute flight planning. The results clearly demonstrate that different system design concepts can strongly influence the cognitive processes and resultant performances of users. Based on think-aloud protocols, cognitive models are proposed to account for how features of the computer system interacted with specific types of scenarios to influence exploration and decision making by the pilots. The results are then used to develop recommendations for guiding the design of cooperative systems

Effects of aggregation of drug and diagnostic codes on the performance of the high-dimensional propensity score algorithm: an empirical example

BACKGROUND: The High-Dimensional Propensity Score (hd-PS) algorithm can select and adjust for baseline confounders of treatment-outcome associations in pharmacoepidemiologic studies that use healthcare claims data. How hd-PS performance is affected by aggregating medications or medical diagnoses has not been assessed. METHODS: We evaluated the effects of aggregating medications or diagnoses on hd-PS performance in an empirical example using resampled cohorts with small sample size, rare outcome incidence, or low exposure prevalence. In a cohort study comparing the risk of upper gastrointestinal complications in celecoxib or traditional NSAIDs (diclofenac, ibuprofen) initiators with rheumatoid arthritis and osteoarthritis, we (1) aggregated medications and International Classification of Diseases-9 (ICD-9) diagnoses into hierarchies of the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical classification (ATC) and the Clinical Classification Software (CCS), respectively, and (2) sampled the full cohort using techniques validated by simulations to create 9,600 samples to compare 16 aggregation scenarios across 50% and 20% samples with varying outcome incidence and exposure prevalence. We applied hd-PS to estimate relative risks (RR) using 5 dimensions, predefined confounders, ≤ 500 hd-PS covariates, and propensity score deciles. For each scenario, we calculated: (1) the geometric mean RR; (2) the difference between the scenario mean ln(RR) and the ln(RR) from published randomized controlled trials (RCT); and (3) the proportional difference in the degree of estimated confounding between that scenario and the base scenario (no aggregation). RESULTS: Compared with the base scenario, aggregations of medications into ATC level 4 alone or in combination with aggregation of diagnoses into CCS level 1 improved the hd-PS confounding adjustment in most scenarios, reducing residual confounding compared with the RCT findings by up to 19%. CONCLUSIONS: Aggregation of codes using hierarchical coding systems may improve the performance of the hd-PS to control for confounders. The balance of advantages and disadvantages of aggregation is likely to vary across research settings

REPLOT : REtrieving Profile Links on Twitter for malicious campaign discovery

Social networking sites are increasingly subject to malicious activities such as self-propagating worms, confidence scams and drive-by-download malwares. The high number of users associated with the presence of sensitive data, such as personal or professional information, is certainly an unprecedented opportunity for attackers. These attackers are moving away from previous platforms of attack, such as emails, towards social networking websites. In this paper, we present a full stack methodology for the identification of campaigns of malicious profiles on social networking sites, composed of maliciousness classification, campaign discovery and attack profiling. The methodology named REPLOT, for REtrieving Profile Links On Twitter, contains three major phases. First, profiles are analysed to determine whether they are more likely to be malicious or benign. Second, connections between suspected malicious profiles are retrieved using a late data fusion approach consisting of temporal and authorship analysis based models to discover campaigns. Third, the analysis of the discovered campaigns is performed to investigate the attacks. In this paper, we apply this methodology to a real world dataset, with a view to understanding the links between malicious profiles, their attack methods and their connections. Our analysis identifies a cluster of linked profiles focusing on propagating malicious links, as well as profiling two other major clusters of attacking campaigns. © 2016 - IOS Press and the authors. All rights reserved

Vaccines against leishmaniasis : using controlled human infection models to accelerate development

INTRODUCTION: Leishmaniasis is a neglected tropical disease that is defined by the World Health Organization as vaccine preventable. Although several new candidate vaccines are in development, no vaccine has successfully reached the market for human use. Several species of Leishmania cause human disease and have co-evolved with their respective sand fly vectors. These unique relationships have implications for initiation of infection and vaccine development. An approach to vaccine development for many infectious diseases is the use of controlled human infection models (CHIMs). AREAS COVERED: We describe the history and recent development of experimental and deliberate infection using Leishmania in humans and the rationale for developing a new sand fly-initiated CHIM to progress leishmaniasis vaccine development. Examples from other infectious diseases are discussed in the context of the development of a new leishmaniasis CHIM. We also reflect upon the manufacture of the challenge agent, practical considerations, safety, ethics, and regulatory issues. EXPERT OPINION: A new cutaneous Leishmania CHIM is being developed to enable testing of vaccines in the development pipeline. Questions remain about the use of such CHIMs to determine effectiveness of vaccines against visceral leishmaniasis. However, such a CHIM will be invaluable in expediting time to market for vaccines

Identifying gaps and providing recommendations to address shortcomings in the investigation of acne sequelae by the Personalising Acne: Consensus of Experts panel

Background: The physical sequelae of acne include erythema, hyperpigmentation, and scarring, which are highly burdensome for patients. Early, effective treatment can potentially limit and prevent sequelae development, but there is a need for guidance for and evidence of prevention-oriented management to improve patient outcomes. Objective: To identify unmet needs of acne sequelae and generate expert recommendations to address gaps in clinical guidance. Methods: The Personalizing Acne: Consensus of Experts panel of 13 dermatologists used a modified Delphi approach to achieve a consensus on the clinical aspects of acne sequelae. A consensus was defined as ≥75% of the dermatologists voting agree or strongly agree. All voting was electronic and blinded. Results: The panel identified gaps in current guidance and made recommendations related to acne sequelae. These included identification and classification of sequelae, pertinent points to consider for patient consultations, and management aimed at reducing the development of sequelae. Limitations: The recommendations are based on expert opinion and made in the absence of high-quality evidence. Conclusions: The identified gaps should help inform future research and guideline development for acne sequelae. The consensus-based recommendations should also support the process of consultations throughout the patient journey, helping to reduce the development and burden of acne sequelae through improved risk factor recognition, early discussion, and appropriate management

The Personalised Acne Care Pathway-Recommendations to guide longitudinal management from the Personalising Acne: Consensus of Experts

Background: Acne is a chronic disease with a varying presentation that requires long-term management. Despite this, the clinical guidelines for acne offer limited guidance to facilitate personalized or longitudinal management of patients. Objectives: To generate recommendations to support comprehensive, personalized, long-term patient management that address all presentations of acne and its current and potential future burden. Methods: The Personalising Acne: Consensus of Experts panel consisted of 13 dermatologists who used a modified Delphi approach to reach consensus on statements related to longitudinal acne management. The consensus was defined as ≥75% voting agree or strongly agree. All voting was electronic and blinded. Results: Key management domains, consisting of distinct considerations, points to discuss with patients, and pivot points were identified and incorporated into the Personalised Acne Care Pathway. Long-term treatment goals and expectations and risk of (or fears about) sequelae are highlighted as particularly important to discuss frequently with patients. Limitations: Recommendations are based on expert opinion, which could potentially differ from patients\u27 perspectives. Regional variations in health care systems may not have been captured. Conclusions: The Personalised Acne Care Pathway provides practical recommendations to facilitate the longitudinal management of acne, which can be used by health care professionals to optimize and personalize care throughout the patient journey

Overcoming roadblocks in the development of vaccines for leishmaniasis

INTRODUCTION: The leishmaniases represent a group of parasitic diseases caused by infection with one of several species of Leishmania parasites. Disease presentation varies because of differences in parasite and host genetics and may be influenced by additional factors such as host nutritional status or co-infection. Studies in experimental models of Leishmania infection, vaccination of companion animals and human epidemiological data suggest that many forms of leishmaniasis could be prevented by vaccination, but no vaccines are currently available for human use. AREAS COVERED: We describe some of the existing roadblocks to the development and implementation of an effective leishmaniasis vaccine, based on a review of recent literature found on PubMed, BioRxiv and MedRxiv. In addition to discussing scientific unknowns that hinder vaccine candidate identification and selection, we explore gaps in knowledge regarding the commercial and public health value propositions underpinning vaccine development and provide a route map for future research and advocacy. EXPERT OPINION: Despite significant progress, leishmaniasis vaccine development remains hindered by significant gaps in understanding that span the vaccine development pipeline. Increased coordination and adoption of a more holistic view to vaccine development will be required to ensure more rapid progress in the years ahead

Genome-wide meta-analysis implicates mediators of hair follicle development and morphogenesis in risk for severe acne

Acne vulgaris is a highly heritable common, chronic inflammatory disease of the skin for which five genetic risk loci have so far been identified. Here, we perform a genome-wide association study of 3823 cases and 16,144 controls followed by meta-analysis with summary statistics from a previous study, with a total sample size of 26,722. We identify 20 independent association signals at 15 risk loci, 12 of which have not been previously implicated in the disease. Likely causal variants disrupt the coding region of WNT10A and a P63 transcription factor binding site in SEMA4B. Risk alleles at the 1q25 locus are associated with increased expression of LAMC2, in which biallelic loss-of-function mutations cause the blistering skin disease epidermolysis bullosa. These findings indicate that variation affecting the structure and maintenance of the skin, in particular the pilosebaceous unit, is a critical aspect of the genetic predisposition to severe acne

Broad Spectrum Antiviral Activity of Favipiravir (T-705): Protection from Highly Lethal Inhalational Rift Valley Fever

Background:Development of antiviral drugs that have broad-spectrum activity against a number of viral infections would be of significant benefit. Due to the evolution of resistance to currently licensed antiviral drugs, development of novel anti-influenza drugs is in progress, including Favipiravir (T-705), which is currently in human clinical trials. T-705 displays broad-spectrum in vitro activity against a number of viruses, including Rift Valley Fever virus (RVFV). RVF is an important neglected tropical disease that causes human, agricultural, and economic losses in endemic regions. RVF has the capacity to emerge in new locations and also presents a potential bioterrorism threat. In the current study, the in vivo efficacy of T-705 was evaluated in Wistar-Furth rats infected with the virulent ZH501 strain of RVFV by the aerosol route.Methodology/Principal Findings:Wistar-Furth rats are highly susceptible to a rapidly lethal disease after parenteral or inhalational exposure to the pathogenic ZH501 strain of RVFV. In the current study, two experiments were performed: a dose-determination study and a delayed-treatment study. In both experiments, all untreated control rats succumbed to disease. Out of 72 total rats infected with RVFV and treated with T-705, only 6 succumbed to disease. The remaining 66 rats (92%) survived lethal infection with no significant weight loss or fever. The 6 treated rats that succumbed survived significantly longer before succumbing to encephalitic disease.Conclusions/Significance:Currently, there are no licensed antiviral drugs for treating RVF. Here, T-705 showed remarkable efficacy in a highly lethal rat model of Rift Valley Fever, even when given up to 48 hours post-infection. This is the first study to show protection of rats infected with the pathogenic ZH501 strain of RVFV. Our data suggest that T-705 has potential to be a broad-spectrum antiviral drug. © 2014 Caroline et al