Modeling uncertainty in pathogen transmission and evolution for infectious disease management

Public health practitioners rely on epidemiological case count and molecular sequence data for making decisions regarding the prevention, control, and treatment of infectious disease. The relationship between what practitioners can observe and what they wish to know, (i.e. the epidemiological or evolutionary state of the population) can be uncertain because of gaps or biases in the data collection and interpretation steps. In this dissertation, I integrate simulations of disease dynamics with statistical frameworks to link such observational data with probabilistic statements about the range of underlying possible outcomes. Chapter 2 addresses the need for real-time estimates of local Zika epidemic risk during an unfolding outbreak to inform county-specific public health response plans. In this chapter, I present a quantitative framework for estimating real-time ZIKV risk that captures uncertainty in case reporting, importations, and vector-human transmission dynamics. I find that accurate estimates of the case reporting rate can reduce the uncertainty in perceived epidemic risk. In addition, local differences in both the environmental suitability for ZIKV transmission and in the numbers of new cases arriving influence how long a policy maker can wait before implementing response efforts to curb a growing epidemic. In Chapter 3, I address the theoretical and practical questions of how early can population level antigenic evolution of seasonal influenza A/H3N2 be predicted, and what are the best data metrics to inform such predictive models. Using a detailed simulation model of seasonal influenza transmission and evolution, I fit predictive logistic regression models of antigenic variant success to epidemiological and population genetic predictors derived from theoretical case and molecular data. The results show that the relative transmission rates of newly emerging influenza variants can robustly indicate future epidemic threats, up to 10 months prior to their widespread expansion. This chapter demonstrates that the early detection of emerging influenza viruses is limited by a tight race between the typical dynamics of antigenic turnover and the annual timeline for vaccine development. Chapter 4 examines how complex evolutionary processes, such as recombination and latency, leave detectable signals in HIV-1 molecular data when analyzed using methods that assume the absence of these processes. First, I develop a new method for simulating the evolutionary history of a set of molecular sequence samples using ancestral recombination graphs (ARG). Next, I use a new statistical framework for comparing simulated and observed HIV-1 trees. I find evidence that the intensity of within-host evolutionary processes is detectable in binary trees constructed using hierarchical clustering methods. Furthermore, the latent reservoir size is likely to differ between individual patients. This model represents an important advance in the realism of HIV within-in host evolutionary modeling. Altogether, the results in this dissertation demonstrate how effective infectious disease management can be improved by using an interdisciplinary approach of computational epidemiology and statistics to strategically think about complex data collection and interpretation questions.Ecology, Evolution and Behavio

The influence of memory on the speech-to-song illusion

In the speech-to-song illusion a spoken phrase is presented repeatedly and begins to sound as if it is being sung. Anecdotal reports suggest that subsequent presentations of a previously heard phrase enhance the illusion, even if several hours or days have elapsed between presentations. In Experiment 1, we examined in a controlled laboratory setting whether memory traces for a previously heard phrase would influence song-like ratings to a subsequent presentation of that phrase. The results showed that word lists that were played several times throughout the experimental session were rated as being more song-like at the end of the experiment than word lists that were played only once in the experimental session. In Experiment 2, we examined if the memory traces that influenced the speech-to-song illusion were abstract in nature or exemplar-based by playing some word lists several times during the experiment in the same voice and playing other word lists several times during the experiment but in different voices. The results showed that word lists played in the same voice were rated as more song-like at the end of the experiment than word lists played in different voices. Many previous studies have examined how various aspects of the stimulus itself influences the perception of the speech-to-song illusion. The results of the present experiments demonstrate that memory traces of the stimulus also influence the speech-to-song illusion

Editorial

La Corporación Universidad de la Costa- CUC, con el propósito de obtener mayor visibilidad entre las publicaciones científicas nacionales e internacionales, publicando los alcances recientes de ciencia y tecnología, ha decidido que su revista INGE CUC tenga una periodicidad semestral en vez de anual, por lo que a partir de este mes de junio se hace entrega del volumen 9 número 1, que contiene un total de 14 artículos, de los cuales once son de investigación científica, uno de revisión, uno de revisión de tema y un reporte de caso, los cuales abarcan diferentes áreas de la ingeniería como Ingeniería Industrial, Ingeniería Química, Ingeniería de Sistemas, Ingeniería Electrónica, Ingeniería Mecánica, Ingeniería de Materiales, Ingeniería Eléctrica e Ingeniería Civil

Editorial

La revista INGE CUC, editada por la Corporación Universidad de la Costa, continúan con su posicionamiento como una revista líder en la publicación de los resultados de las investigaciones nacionales e internacionales en las diferentes áreas de la Ingeniería. En este volumen contamos con el honor de trabajar en conjunto con un editor invitado, el doctor Jairo Montoya-Torres, reconocido investigador nacional, quien ha sido editor asociado del Journal of Modelling and Simulation of Systems (JMSS), Journal of Studies on Manufacturing (JSM), and Journal of Artificial Intelligence: Theory and Application (JAITA), editor invitado del International Journal of Information Systems and Supply Chain Management (Vol. 2, No. 2, April 2009), Annals of Operations Research (Vol. 181, No. 1), Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing (Vol. 22, No. 5), International Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering (Vol. 13, No. 3), el primer número de la Revista Internacional de Investigación de Operaciones, International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management (en proceso) y de Logistique et Management (en proceso)

Estado del arte cadenas de abastecimientos sostenibles: una visión de los últimos 20 años

Los estudios sobre la cadena de abastecimiento remonta al siglo pasado, pero el termino se popularizo cuando fue usado por un consultor de una compañía quien lo utilizo en una entrevista en el Financial Times en 1982, pero ya fue hasta 1990 cuando este termino se popularizo evolucionando y mencionándose en varios contextos, es mucho los que el estado del arte ha avanzado en estos últimos 30 años es por esto que este trabajo plantea un escenarios general que muestre como ha sido esta evolución a través de una revisión literaria exhaustiva de artículos especializados enfatizando en temas como que es la cadena de abastecimiento, la medición de su desempeño, el desarrollo sostenible, las cadenas de suministro sostenibles y la logística verde

Prevalence and Types of Incivility in Occupational Therapy Fieldwork

Civility between health professions students and fieldwork educators enhances positive learning outcomes, while incivility can lead to stress, loss of confidence, mistakes, disengagement, and decreased patient outcomes. A survey of recent graduates of occupational therapy programs (N = 247) explored the prevalence and types of incivility and bullying experienced during their Level II fieldwork experiences. Respondents reported that incivility in fieldwork education was widespread, with more severe experiences of bullying reported by 16% of respondents. Occupational therapy programs and fieldwork educators must take an active role in prevention and management of uncivil behaviors, and promote positive academic and patient care environments