Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: a review of methods and research needs

In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail

Controlled Experiments of Hillslope Coevolution at the Biosphere 2 Landscape Evolution Observatory: Toward Prediction of Coupled Hydrological, Biogeochemical, and Ecological Change

Understanding the process interactions and feedbacks among water, porous geological media, microbes, and vascular plants is crucial for improving predictions of the response of Earth’s critical zone to future climatic conditions. However, the integrated coevolution of landscapes under change is notoriously difficult to investigate. Laboratory studies are limited in spatial and temporal scale, while field studies lack observational density and control. To bridge the gap between controlled laboratory and uncontrollable field studies, the University of Arizona built a macrocosm experiment of unprecedented scale: the Landscape Evolution Observatory (LEO). LEO comprises three replicated, heavily instrumented, hillslope-scale model landscapes within the environmentally controlled Biosphere 2 facility. The model landscapes were designed to initially be simple and purely abiotic, enabling scientists to observe each step in the landscapes’ evolution as they undergo physical, chemical, and biological changes over many years. This chapter describes the model systems and associated research facilities and illustrates how LEO allows for tracking of multiscale matter and energy fluxes at a level of detail impossible in field experiments. Initial sensor, sampler, and soil coring data are already providing insights into the tight linkages between water flow, weathering, and microbial community development. These interacting processes are anticipated to drive the model systems to increasingly complex states and will be impacted by the introduction of vascular plants and changes in climatic regimes over the years to come. By intensively monitoring the evolutionary trajectory, integrating data with mathematical models, and fostering community-wide collaborations, we envision that emergent landscape structures and functions can be linked, and significant progress can be made toward predicting the coupled hydro-biogeochemical and ecological responses to global change

Epithelial Proinflammatory Response and Curcumin-Mediated Protection from Staphylococcal Toxic Shock Syndrome Toxin-1

Staphylococcus aureus initiates infections and produces virulence factors, including superantigens (SAgs), at mucosal surfaces. The SAg, Toxic Shock Syndrome Toxin-1 (TSST-1) induces cytokine secretion from epithelial cells, antigen presenting cells (APCs) and T lymphocytes, and causes toxic shock syndrome (TSS). This study investigated the mechanism of TSST-1-induced secretion of proinflammatory cytokines from human vaginal epithelial cells (HVECs) and determined if curcumin, an anti-inflammatory agent, could reduce TSST-1-mediated pathology in a rabbit vaginal model of TSS. TSST-1 caused a significant increase in NF-κB-dependent transcription in HVECs that was associated with increased expression of TNF- α, MIP-3α, IL-6 and IL-8. Curcumin, an antagonist of NF-κB-dependent transcription, inhibited IL-8 production from ex vivo porcine vaginal explants at nontoxic doses. In a rabbit model of TSS, co-administration of curcumin with TSST-1 intravaginally reduced lethality by 60% relative to 100% lethality in rabbits receiving TSST-1 alone. In addition, TNF-α was undetectable from serum or vaginal tissue of curcumin treated rabbits that survived. These data suggest that the inflammatory response induced at the mucosal surface by TSST-1 is NF-κB dependent. In addition, the ability of curcumin to prevent TSS in vivo by co-administration with TSST-1 intravaginally suggests that the vaginal mucosal proinflammatory response to TSST-1 is important in the progression of mTSS

Forecasting the Response of Earth\u27s Surface to Future Climatic and Land Use Changes: A Review of Methods and Research Needs

In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth\u27s surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail

Motor Proteins: Tightening Your Belt with Myosin VI

SummaryNew work shows that the motor protein myosin VI, acting through vinculin, plays a key role in the maturation of cadherin-based adherens junctions in epithelial cells

Local Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Signaling Mediates the Systemic Pathogenic Effects of Staphylococcus aureus Toxic Shock Syndrome.

Secreted factors of Staphylococcus aureus can activate host signaling from the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR). The superantigen toxic shock syndrome toxin-1 (TSST-1) contributes to mucosal cytokine production through a disintegrin and metalloproteinase (ADAM)-mediated shedding of EGFR ligands and subsequent EGFR activation. The secreted hemolysin, α-toxin, can also induce EGFR signaling and directly interacts with ADAM10, a sheddase of EGFR ligands. The current work explores the role of EGFR signaling in menstrual toxic shock syndrome (mTSS), a disease mediated by TSST-1. The data presented show that TSST-1 and α-toxin induce ADAM- and EGFR-dependent cytokine production from human vaginal epithelial cells. TSST-1 and α-toxin also induce cytokine production from an ex vivo porcine vaginal mucosa (PVM) model. EGFR signaling is responsible for the majority of IL-8 production from PVM in response to secreted toxins and live S. aureus. Finally, data are presented demonstrating that inhibition of EGFR signaling with the EGFR-specific tyrosine kinase inhibitor AG1478 significantly increases survival in a rabbit model of mTSS. These data indicate that EGFR signaling is critical for progression of an S. aureus exotoxin-mediated disease and may represent an attractive host target for therapeutics

Epidermal growth factor receptor signaling enhances the proinflammatory effects of staphylococcus aureus gamma-toxin on the mucosa

Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) produces many different exotoxins including the gamma-toxins, HlgAB and HlgCB. Gamma-toxins form pores in both leukocyte and erythrocyte membranes, resulting in cell lysis. The genes encoding gamma-toxins are present in most strains of S. aureus, and are commonly expressed in clinical isolates recovered from menstrual Toxic Shock Syndrome (mTSS) patients. This study set out to investigate the cytotoxic and proinflammatory effects of gamma-toxins on vaginal epithelial surfaces. We found that both HlgAB and HlgCB were cytotoxic to cultured human vaginal epithelial cells (HVECs) and induced cytokine production at sub-cytotoxic doses. Cytokine production induced by gamma-toxin treatment of HVECs was found to involve epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) signaling and mediated by shedding of EGFR ligands from the cell surface. The gamma-toxin subunits displayed differential binding to HVECs (HlgA 93%, HlgB 97% and HlgC 28%) with both components (HlgAB or HlgCB) required for maximum detectable binding and significant stimulation of cytokine production. In studies using full thickness ex vivo porcine vaginal mucosa, HlgAB or HlgCB stimulated a dose-dependent cytokine response, which was reduced significantly by inhibition of EGFR signaling. The effects of gamma-toxins on porcine vaginal tissue and cultured HVECs were validated using ex vivo human ectocervical tissue. Collectively, these studies have identified the EGFR-signaling pathway as a key component in gamma-toxin-induced proinflammatory changes at epithelial surfaces and highlight a potential therapeutic target to diminish toxigenic effects of S. aureus infections

IL-8 production from PVM in response to TSST-1 and α-toxin is dependent on EGFR signaling.

<p>PVM explants were exposed to TSST-1 and/or α-toxin for 6 h and then processed for IL-8 production via ELISA. Where inhibitors were used, they were applied to explants 30 minutes prior to addition of toxin(s). IL-8 is produced in response to both (<b>A</b>) TSST-1 and (<b>B</b>) α-toxin in a dose-dependent manner. For both curves, the asterisks indicate doses showing significant differences from 0 (<i>p</i> < 0.0004). (<b>C</b>) IL-8 production in response to high doses of both TSST-1 (20 μg/explant) and α-toxin (AT) (2 μg/explant) is completely abrogated in the presence of AG1478 (AG– 40 μg/explant), but the dextrin vehicle (Dex– 10 μl of 15%) alone has no affect. Checkered bars represent TSST-1 treatment and striped bars represent AT treatment. Asterisks indicate significant differences from media alone, while crosses indicate significant differences from toxin alone (<i>p</i> < 0.0003). (<b>D</b>) Low doses of TSST-1 (5 μg/explant) and AT (25 ng/explant) have an additive effect on IL-8 production that is reduced to basal levels in the presence of AG1478 (4 μg/explant) with no dextrin vehicle effect (10 μl of 15%). White bars indicate media alone, checkered bars represent TSST-1 treatment, striped bars represent AT treatment, black bars represent TSST-1 + AT treatment. Asterisk indicates significant difference from media, TSST-1 and AT alone (<i>p</i> < 0.03), while cross indicates significant difference from TSST-1 + AT (<i>p</i> < 0.0009).</p