Expert judgement in resource forecasting : insights from the application of the Delphi method

Through application in a world-leading automotive business, this paper explores the practicalities of applying a new method for forecasting resource requirements in the absence of data. The method involves a one off effort to capture expert knowledge in a very structured fashion leading to the formation of regression equations for prediction. Creating such models creates a new conundrum: how can quantitative forecasting models, constructed through structured expert estimations, be validated and accepted in the absence of data? We employ Delphi and find that, with adaptation, it can lead to acceptance of the models generated using the new data-less method

Expert judgement in resource forecasting – the use of the Delphi method to achieve group consensus

Expert judgement is used in a novel resource forecasting method to build models that forecast resource requirements. In this study, a collaborative decision-making process is deployed to ensure user acceptance in an empirical setting with limited legacy data for model validation. The Delphi method allowed facilitating this process and to achieve group consensus during estimate collection. With action research, Delphi parameters are adjusted in three concurrent case studies involving different expert groups. This study shows that Delphi is a useful and valid approach to provide acceptable degree validation for quantitative empirical expert models if only limited legacy data is available for model validation

Expert judgement in resource forecasting : insights form the application of the Delphi method

Through application in a world-leading automotive business, this paper explores the practicalities of applying a new method for forecasting resource requirements in the absence of data. The method involves a one off effort to capture expert knowledge in a very structured fashion leading to the formation of regression equations for prediction. Creating such models creates a new conundrum: how can quantitative forecasting models, constructed through structured expert estimations, be validated and accepted in the absence of data? We employ Delphi and find that, with adaptation, it can lead to acceptance of the models generated using the new data-less method

Les organisations intermédiaires dans les écosystèmes d'innovation. Délimiter les pratiques et le contexte des organisations européennes de transfert de connaissance

Cette thèse porte sur les organisations intermédiaires de transfert de connaissance et de technologies des universités vers l'industrie, au sein des écosystèmes d'innovation. Les pratiques de gestion et le contexte régional des organisations européennes de transfert de connaissances (OTC) sont étudiés afin d'enrichir la compréhension de leurs déterminants managériaux. Une approche systémique est adoptée qui aboutit à des études empiriques à de multiples niveaux.La première porte sur l'influence du contexte régional et analyse le rôle des acteurs dans les systèmes d’innovation régionaux. Sur la base d'entretiens dans des OTC régionales françaises et de la théorie des parties prenantes, un modèle théorique sur l’ambidextrie de création de valeur est développé, sept parties prenantes régionales identifiées, ainsi que six rôles organisationnels adoptés.La deuxième étude porte sur les pratiques de gestion interne et examine leur maturité par rapport à d'autres dimensions de la performance des OTC en mobilisant les capacités dynamiques et la théorie de la contingence. Il en résulte l'élaboration et l'utilisation d'un modèle de maturité holistique fondé sur les pratiques managériales des OTC. Les données d'enquête de 17 OTC européennes montrent que la maturité est la plus élevée dans le domaine des pratiques de “traduction et combinaison” et la plus faible pour “la gestion des connaissances”.La troisième étude utilise le groupe de référence et l'analyse de benchmarking pour développer une approche de regroupement de OTC européennes basée sur des indicateurs d‘activité. Un cadre est proposé sur la base duquel des clusters européens transnationaux sont créés. Il en ressort que les variables liées à la culture interne de transfert des connaissances sont principalement à l'origine de la création de groupes, suivies de la variable ”'écosystème externe” et de celle relative au budget.En conclusion, cette recherche contribue à l'émergence de nouveaux thèmes dans la littérature sur le transfert des connaissances entre l'université et l'industrie, en particulier sur l'existence et l'influence des intervenants régionaux, le rôle des capacités et des pratiques dans la performance des OTC et la capacité non seulement de créer des groupes transnationaux pour le benchmarking et le benchlearning, mais aussi la mise en évidence des variables qui déterminent la création de groupes. Cela a des répercussions managériales ainsi que sur les politiques publiques, mais également offre un terrain fertile pour la recherche future en management sur les liens entre les universités et l'industrie.This thesis research is on intermediary organisations for the transfer of knowledge and technology from academia to industry in innovation ecosystems. Managerial practices and regional context of European Knowledge Transfer Organisations (KTOs) are investigated to enrich the understanding of their managerial determinants. A systemic approach is adopted resulting in research on multiple analytical levels. Consequently, the empirical part of this thesis consists of three studies.The first is on the regional context and analyses the influence of actors in the regional innovation system. Based on interviews at French regional KTOs and stakeholder theory, a theoretical model on their value creation ambidexterity is created and seven regional stakeholders identified, as well as six organisational roles which are adopted in response.The second study is on the internal managerial practices and investigates their maturity in relation to other KTO performance dimensions using dynamic capabilities and contingency theory. It results in the development and initial use of a holistic practice-based maturity model for KTO performance management. Initial data from 17 European KTOs shows that maturity is highest in the area of ‘translation & combination’ practices and lowest for ‘knowledge management’.The third study uses reference group and benchmarking theory to develop a clustering approach for the comparison of similar European KTOs based on existing activity metrics. A framework is proposed based on which transnational European peer groups are created with a clustering approach. Variables related to the internal knowledge transfer culture primarily drove cluster creation, followed by the external ecosystem and KTO budget.In conclusion, the research findings shed light on emerging topics in the university-industry knowledge transfer literature, particularly on the existence and influence of regional stakeholders, the role of capabilities and practices in performance management and the ability to not only create transnational groups for benchmarking and bench-learning but also visibility on the variables that drive cluster creation. This has managerial and policy implications as well as provides fertile ground for future research on management at the intersection of academia and industry

Expert knowledge elicitation for the creation and validation of models in the absence of data

In the absence of an abundance of data, resource planners use unstructured estimations as a source of decision making information. Challenges associated with such an approach are: a lack of transparency; slow and lagging response to information demands; poor consistency and agreement; cost intensive collection and ambiguous accuracy (Hird 2012). By developing a technique based on the efficient and structured collection of expert estimations, Hird (2012) overcomes such challenges. In applications to date, a small amount of legacy project data has been available to validate such methods thereby encouraging confidence in model results. This research explores the instance where no data is available for validation of the model. We propose the use of the Delphi method in combination with the technique proposed by Hird (2012). Through case studies, the technique is employed in a UK-based automotive firm. The objectives are: to identify suitable parameters and to evaluate the suitability of Delphi in this context. Initial findings suggest that Delphi is a legitimate means of validating quantitative models and developing confidence in model use. The process of applying Delphi engenders a sense of model ownership and encourages evaluation of current planning practices. Unstructured resource estimation in the absence of data for forecasting model development and validation is a widespread and long standing issue. Our findings also address the issue of expert knowledge retention

Project Management in cross-sector social-oriented partnerships : A comparative study on the formation of partnerships in Romania, Sweden, the United Kingdom and Germany

Cross-sector  social-oriented  partnerships  which  address  social  or  environmental challenges are increasing in practice and in the literature. Although this is expected to continue  in the  future, management responsibilities are  largely unclear  in this type of cross-sector  collaboration.  Project  management  was  found  to  be  a  relevant  area  for investigation  because  cross-sector  collaborations  and  projects  have  similar characteristics and projects are mentioned separately in the two literature fields.   By joining them in a novel theoretical framework and by collecting empirical data, this thesis aims to explore, describe and analyse the context and use of project management in  the  formation  phase  of  cross-sector  social-oriented  partnerships.  The  study  was undertaken in the belief that project management can be enriched by being researched in collaborative settings and that cross-sector collaborations are interesting to investigate from a managerial perspective. In fact, they offer great potential for knowledge creation and sharing which has been addressed mainly by management research.   This  thesis  study  was  structured  according  to  three  research  objectives.  Firstly,  we analysed the role of contextual elements in cross-sector social-oriented partnerships by comparing cases in different European country contexts, which were selected based on established criteria. Secondly, we conceptualised the formation phase as  it was  found that  the  literature  lacked  an  overarching  understanding  of  this  phase.  Thirdly,  we identified  management  responsibilities  with  a  focus  on  project  and  knowledge management concepts in the formation of cross-sector social-oriented partnerships.    We  investigated  both  partners  in  a  multi-method  qualitative  study  to  get  a  holistic understanding  of  the  research  context.  Primary  data  was  collected  in  semi-structured interviews and supplemented with secondary data. The data was analysed on two levels which allowed for the triangulation of findings. Given the mainly inductive approach, template  analysis  was  deployed  allowing  for  flexibility  to  take  account  of  emerging aspects.   The  empirical  data  shows  that  project  management  is  deployed  differently  in  the formation  of  cross-sector  social-oriented  partnerships,  depending  on  contextual elements  and  the  intention  with  which  they  were  formed.  This  is  reflected  in  the interaction of partners, the level of trust between them, the way knowledge is shared and ultimately in the level of formality in which project management is deployed. In light of the generated findings, the extension of a collaboration continuum from the literature is proposed  by  integrating  project  management  as  a  parameter.  The  findings  and  this proposition have implications on practitioners and for further research in the field

L’ancrage territorial des SATT

International audienceBased on the case study of a successful Technology Transfer Acceleration Company (SATT), the paper aims to highlight the paradoxical tension between perceived microeconomic value and territorial value and how it is managed. The research results show that a learning process allowed for the implementation of a logic that combines the paradoxical organizational practices of differentiation and dialogue. They manifest themselves at a strategic, operational and individual level at the investigated SATT.À partir de l’étude de cas unique d’une société d’accélération de transfert de technologie (SATT) performante, l’article vise à mettre en évidence la tension paradoxale entre valeur micro-économique et valeur territoriale, perçues, et la manière dont celle-ci est managée. Les résultats témoignent d’un processus d’apprentissage, au sein de la SATT investiguée, permettant la mise en œuvre d’une logique de combinaison alliant des pratiques organisationnelles paradoxales de différenciation et de dialogue qui se manifestent à un niveau stratégique, opérationnel et individuel

University technology transfer organizations: Roles adopted in response to their regional innovation system stakeholders

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