An Empirical Assessment of Alternative Models of Risky Decision Making

In this paper, we assess the degree to which four of the most commonly used models of risky decision making can explain the choices individuals make when faced with risky prospects. To make this assessment, we use experimental evidence for two random samples of young adults. Using a robust, nonlinear least squares procedure, we estimate a model that is general enough to approximate Kahnenman and Tversky's prospect theory and that for certain parametric values will yield the expected utility model, a subjective expected utility model and a probability-transform model. We find that the four models considered explain the decision-making behavior of the majority of our subjects. Surprisingly, we find that the choice behavior of the largest number of subjects is consistent with a probability-transform model. Such models have only been developed recently and have not been used in applied settings. We find least support for the expected utility model -- the most widely used model of risky decision making.

On the Computability of Solomonoff Induction and Knowledge-Seeking

Solomonoff induction is held as a gold standard for learning, but it is known to be incomputable. We quantify its incomputability by placing various flavors of Solomonoff's prior M in the arithmetical hierarchy. We also derive computability bounds for knowledge-seeking agents, and give a limit-computable weakly asymptotically optimal reinforcement learning agent.Comment: ALT 201

Universal knowledge-seeking agents for stochastic environments

We define an optimal Bayesian knowledge-seeking agent, KL-KSA, designed for countable hypothesis classes of stochastic environments and whose goal is to gather as much information about the unknown world as possible. Although this agent works for arbitrary countable classes and priors, we focus on the especially interesting case where all stochastic computable environments are considered and the prior is based on Solomonoff’s universal prior. Among other properties, we show that KL-KSA learns the true environment in the sense that it learns to predict the consequences of actions it does not take. We show that it does not consider noise to be information and avoids taking actions leading to inescapable traps. We also present a variety of toy experiments demonstrating that KL-KSA behaves according to expectation

Extreme State Aggregation Beyond MDPs

We consider a Reinforcement Learning setup where an agent interacts with an environment in observation-reward-action cycles without any (esp.\ MDP) assumptions on the environment. State aggregation and more generally feature reinforcement learning is concerned with mapping histories/raw-states to reduced/aggregated states. The idea behind both is that the resulting reduced process (approximately) forms a small stationary finite-state MDP, which can then be efficiently solved or learnt. We considerably generalize existing aggregation results by showing that even if the reduced process is not an MDP, the (q-)value functions and (optimal) policies of an associated MDP with same state-space size solve the original problem, as long as the solution can approximately be represented as a function of the reduced states. This implies an upper bound on the required state space size that holds uniformly for all RL problems. It may also explain why RL algorithms designed for MDPs sometimes perform well beyond MDPs.Comment: 28 LaTeX pages. 8 Theorem

‘I can’t accept that feeling’: Relationships between interoceptive awareness, mindfulness and eating disorder symptoms in females with, and at-risk of an eating disorder

Mindfulness based therapies (MBTs) for eating disorders show potential benefit for outcomes yet evidence is scarce regarding the mechanisms by which they influence remission from symptoms. One way that mindfulness approaches create positive outcomes is through enhancement of emotion regulation skills. Maladaptive emotion regulation is a key psychological feature of all eating disorders. The aim of the current study was to identify facets of emotion regulation involved in the relationship between mindfulness and maladaptive eating behaviours. In three cross-sectional studies, clinical (n=39) and non-clinical (n=137 and 119) female participants completed: 1) the Eating Disorder Inventory (EDI) eating specific scales (drive-for-thinness and bulimia) and the EDI psychological symptom scales (emotion dysregulation and interoceptive deficits); and 2) mindfulness, impulsivity, and emotion regulation questionnaires. In all samples mindfulness was significantly and inversely associated with EDI eating and psychological symptom scales, and impulsivity. In non-clinical samples interoceptive deficits mediated the relationship between mindfulness and EDI eating specific scales. Non-acceptance of emotional experience, a facet of interoceptive awareness, mediated the relationship between mindfulness and eating specific EDI scores. Further investigations could verify relationships identified so that mindfulness based approaches can be optimised to enhance emotion regulation skills in sufferers, and those at-risk, of eating disorders

The diverse nature of island isolation and its effect on land bridge insular faunas

Aim: Isolation is a key factor in island biology. It is usually defined as the distance to the geographically nearest mainland, but many other definitions exist. We explored how testing different isolation indices affects the inference of impacts of isolation on faunal characteristics. We focused on land bridge islands and compared the relationships of many spatial and temporal (i.e., through time) isolation indices with community‐, population‐ and individual‐level characteristics (species richness, population density and body size, respectively). Location: Aegean Sea islands, Greece. Time period: Current. Taxon: Many animal taxa. Methods: We estimated 21 isolation indices for 205 islands and recorded species richness data for 15 taxa (invertebrates and vertebrates). We obtained body size data for seven lizard species and population density data for three. We explored how well indices predict each characteristic, in each taxon, by conducting a series of ordinary least squares regressions (controlling for island area when needed) and a meta‐analysis. Results: Isolation was significantly (and negatively) associated with species richness in 10 of 15 taxa. It was significantly (and positively) associated with body size in only one of seven species and was not associated with population density. The effect of isolation on species richness was much weaker than that of island area, regardless of the index tested. Spatial indices generally out‐performed temporal indices, and indices directly related to the mainland out‐performed those related mainly to neighbouring islands. No index was universally superior to others, including the distance to the geographically nearest mainland. Main conclusions: The choice of index can alter our perception of the impacts of isolation on biological patterns. The nearly automatic, ubiquitous use of distance to the geographically nearest mainland misrepresents the complexity of the effects of isolation. We recommend the simultaneous testing of several indices that represent different aspects of isolation, in order to produce more constructive and thorough investigations and avoid imprecise inference

‘I can’t accept that feeling’: Relationships between interoceptive awareness, mindfulness and eating disorder symptoms in females with, and at-risk of an eating disorder

Mindfulness based therapies (MBTs) for eating disorders show potential benefit for outcomes yet evidence is scarce regarding the mechanisms by which they influence remission from symptoms. One way that mindfulness approaches create positive outcomes is through enhancement of emotion regulation skills. Maladaptive emotion regulation is a key psychological feature of all eating disorders. The aim of the current study was to identify facets of emotion regulation involved in the relationship between mindfulness and maladaptive eating behaviours. In three cross-sectional studies, clinical (n=39) and non-clinical (n=137 and 119) female participants completed: 1) the Eating Disorder Inventory (EDI) eating specific scales (drive-for-thinness and bulimia) and the EDI psychological symptom scales (emotion dysregulation and interoceptive deficits); and 2) mindfulness, impulsivity, and emotion regulation questionnaires. In all samples mindfulness was significantly and inversely associated with EDI eating and psychological symptom scales, and impulsivity. In non-clinical samples interoceptive deficits mediated the relationship between mindfulness and EDI eating specific scales. Non-acceptance of emotional experience, a facet of interoceptive awareness, mediated the relationship between mindfulness and eating specific EDI scores. Further investigations could verify relationships identified so that mindfulness based approaches can be optimised to enhance emotion regulation skills in sufferers, and those at-risk, of eating disorders

Sequential Extensions of Causal and Evidential Decision Theory

Moving beyond the dualistic view in AI where agent and environment are separated incurs new challenges for decision making, as calculation of expected utility is no longer straightforward. The non-dualistic decision theory literature is split between causal decision theory and evidential decision theory. We extend these decision algorithms to the sequential setting where the agent alternates between taking actions and observing their consequences. We find that evidential decision theory has two natural extensions while causal decision theory only has one.Comment: ADT 201

Self-reported interoceptive deficits in eating disorders: A meta-analysis of studies using the eating disorder inventory

This document is the Accepted Manuscript version of the following article: Paul M. Jenkinson, Lauren Taylor, Keith R. Laws, ‘Self-reported interoceptive deficits in eating disorders: A meta-analysis of studies using the eating disorder inventory’, Journal of Psychosomatic Research, Vol. 110: 38-45, July 2018, under embargo until 19 April 2019. The Version of Record is available online at DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychores.2018.04.005Objective: An impairment of the ability to sense the physiological condition of the body – interoception – has long been proposed as central to the onset and maintenance of eating disorders. More recent attention to this topic has generally indicated the presence of interoceptive deficits in individuals with an eating disorder diagnosis; however, possible links with specific diagnosis, BMI, age, illness duration, depression, and alexithymia remain unclear from individual studies. This meta-analysis aimed to provide a necessary quantitative overview of self-reported interoceptive deficits in eating disorder populations, and the relationship between these deficits and the previously mentioned factors. Methods: Using a random effects model, our meta-analysis assessed the magnitude of differences in interoceptive abilities as measured using the Eating Disorder Inventory in 41 samples comparing people with eating disorders (n=4308) and healthy controls (n=3459). Follow-up and moderator analysis was conducted, using group comparisons and meta-regressions. Results: We report a large pooled effect size of 1.62 for eating disorders with some variation between diagnostic groups. Further moderator analysis showed that BMI, age and alexithymia were significant predictors of overall effect size. Conclusion: This meta-analysis is the first to confirm that large interoceptive deficits occur in a variety of eating disorders and crucially, in those who have recovered. These deficits may be useful in identifying and distinguishing eating disorders. Future research needs to consider both objective and subjective measures of interoception across different types of eating disorders and may fruitfully examine interoception as a possible endophenotype and target for treatment.Peer reviewe

Neuroscience in gambling policy and treatment: an interdisciplinary perspective

Neuroscientific explanations of gambling disorder can help people make sense of their experiences and guide the development of psychosocial interventions. However, the societal perceptions and implications of these explanations are not always clear or helpful. Two workshops in 2013 and 2014 brought together multidisciplinary researchers aiming to improve the clinical and policy-related effects of neuroscience research on gambling. The workshops revealed that neuroscience can be used to improve identification of the dangers of products used in gambling. Additionally, there was optimism associated with the diagnostic and prognostic uses of neuroscience in problem gambling and the provision of novel tools (eg, virtual reality) to assess the effectiveness of new policy interventions before their implementation. Other messages from these workshops were that neuroscientific models of decision making could provide a strong rationale for precommitment strategies and that interdisciplinary collaborations are needed to reduce the harms of gambling