Climate change impacts on European arable crop yields: Sensitivity to assumptions about rotations and residue management

Most large scale studies assessing climate change impacts on crops are performed with simulations of single crops and with annual re-initialization of the initial soil conditions. This is in contrast to the reality that crops are grown in rotations, often with sizable proportion of the preceding crop residue to be left in the fields and varying soil initial conditions from year to year. In this study, the sensitivity of climate change impacts on crop yield and soil organic carbon to assumptions about annual model re-initialization, specification of crop rotations and the amount of residue retained in fields was assessed for seven main crops across Europe. Simulations were conducted for a scenario period 2040–2065 relative to a baseline from 1980 to 2005 using the SIMPLACE1 framework. Results indicated across Europe positive climate change impacts on yield for C3 crops and negative impacts for maize. The consideration of simulating rotations did not have a benefit on yield variability but on relative yield change in response to climate change which slightly increased for C3 crops and decreased for C4 crops when rotation was considered. Soil organic carbon decreased under climate change in both simulations assuming a continuous monocrop and plausible rotations by between 1% and 2% depending on the residue management strategy

Climate change impacts on European arable crop yields: Sensitivity to assumptions about rotations and residue management

Most large scale studies assessing climate change impacts on crops are performed with simulations of single crops and with annual re-initialization of the initial soil conditions. This is in contrast to the reality that crops are grown in rotations, often with sizable proportion of the preceding crop residue to be left in the fields and varying soil initial conditions from year to year. In this study, the sensitivity of climate change impacts on crop yield and soil organic carbon to assumptions about annual model re-initialization, specification of crop rotations and the amount of residue retained in fields was assessed for seven main crops across Europe. Simulations were con-ducted for a scenario period 2040-2065 relative to a baseline from 1980 to 2005 using the SIMPLACE1 modeling framework. Results indicated across Europe positive climate change impacts on yield for C3 crops and negative impacts for maize. The consideration of simulating rotations did not have a benefit on yield variability but on relative yield change in response to climate change which slightly increased for C3 crops and decreased for C4 crops when rotation was considered. Soil organic carbon decreased under climate change in both simulations assuming a continuous monocrop and plausible rotations by between 1% and 2% depending on the residue management strategy

The potential role of producer and consumer food policies in the EU to sustainable food and nutrition security

EU sustainable food and nutrition security is no sure-fire success. The future ofthe agro-food system is uncertain and subject to different macro-level trends.Previous analysis revealed the role of food system drivers creating challenges andopportunities for dietary and environmental improvements under certain futureconstellations. However, these challenges and opportunities need to be addressed by policies to allow for actual improvements in the sustainabilityperformance of EU food systems, for people, planet and profit. In this deliverable,an assessment and pre-test of potential policy measures is carried out. The policyanalyses are contrasted to a ‘business-as-usual’ baseline scenario with currenttrends of food system drivers. We apply the SUSFANS modelling toolbox in orderto test relevant policy measures in four distinct aqua-agro-food policy sectors.Regarding health and nutrition of the EU population, we provide a ranking ofpotential dietary policies and interventions based on their effectiveness,implementation costs and restrictiveness for consumers and producers. Based onthis overview, options for health and nutrition policy are designed containing amixture of different policy instruments. These apply – in line with the allocationof policy responsibilities in the EU - at the level of individual member states andnot at the realms of an EU policy. In the context of the Common AgriculturalPolicy (CAP), we assess the impact of a livestock density restriction on EU Agricultural areas. Results indicate a reduction of soil nutrient surpluses (-9 to -13%) and of greenhouse gas emissions (-9%) at EU average and considerably stronger in the livestock density and over-fertilization hotspots. Trade openness restricts the impact on food consumption and dietary change of EU consumers. Three Common Fisheries Policies (CFP) are tested with the newly developed fish modules of GLOBIOM and CAPRI: Directing capture in EU waters to levels that keep fish stocks at the maximum sustainable yield (MSY), or at the maximum economic yield (MEY), and the implementation of national aquaculture growth plans composed by EU member states. Our results show limited policy impacts due to the rlatively small size of the EU fish producing sector with some trade butlimited consumption changes. Finally, different storage policies are tested with the new short-term volatility module of GLOBIOM. The scenarios reveal that storage availability and intervention prices reduce price volatility caused by yield shocks. The assessments illustrate that individual, yet unaligned policy measures can already contribute significantly to reaching sustainable food and nutritionsecurity. On the way to the final foresight assessment extensions are require regarding a) metrics quantifiability, b) the harmonization of metrics computationapproaches, and c) smaller model improvement

Who is most vulnerable to climate change induced yield changes? A dynamic long run household analysis in lower income countries

Climate change impacts on agricultural production will shape the challenges of reaching food security and reducing poverty across households in the future. Existing literature lacks analysis of these impacts on different household groups under consideration of changing socio-economic developments. Here, we analyze how crop yield shifts induced by climate change will affect different household types in three low- and lower-middle-income countries, namely Vietnam, Ethiopia and Bolivia. The long-run analysis is based on a recursive-dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model. We first construct a baseline scenario projecting global socio-economic developments up to 2050. From there, we implement business-as-usual climate change shocks on crop yields. In the baseline, all households benefit from welfare increases over time. Adding climate change induced yield changes reveals impacts different in size and direction depending on the level of the households’ income and on the share of income generated in agriculture. We find that the composition of the factor income and the land ownership are of large importance for the vulnerability of households to climate change, since the loss for non-agricultural households is highest in absolute terms. The complementary comparative static analysis shows smaller absolute and relative effects for most households as the differentiated factor income growth over time is not considered, which makes household types more or less vulnerable. A sensitivity analysis varying the severity of climate change impacts on yields confirms that more negative yield shifts exacerbate the situation (especially) of the most vulnerable households. Furthermore, it underlines that yield shocks on staple crops are of major importance for the welfare effect. Our findings reveal the need for differentiated interventions to mitigate consequences especially for the most vulnerable households

Who is Most Vulnerable to Climate Change Induced Yield Changes? A Dynamic Long Run Household Analysis in Lower Income Countries

Climate change impacts on agricultural production will shape the challenges of reaching food security and reducing poverty across households in the future. Existing literature lacks analysis of these impacts on different household groups under consideration of changing socio-economic developments. Here, we analyze how crop yield shifts induced by climate change will affect different household types in three low and low middle-income countries, namely Vietnam, Ethiopia and Bolivia. The long-run analysis is based on a recursive-dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model. We first construct a baseline scenario projecting global socio-economic developments up to 2050. From there, we implement business-as-usual climate change shocks on crop yields. In the baseline, all households benefit from welfare increases over time. Adding climate change induced yield changes reveals impacts different in size and direction depending on the level of the households’ income and on the share of income generated in agriculture. We find that the composition of the factor income is of large importance for the vulnerability of households to climate change, as, the loss for non-agricultural households is highest in absolute terms. The complementary comparative static analysis shows smaller absolute and relative effects for most households as the differentiated factor income growth over time is not considered, which makes household types more or less vulnerable. A sensitivity analysis varying the severity of climate change impacts on yields confirms that more negative yield shifts exacerbate the situation of the most vulnerable households. Furthermore, it underlines that yield shocks on staple crops are of major importance for the welfare effect. Our findings reveal the need for differentiated interventions to mitigate consequences especially for the most vulnerable households

A MODEL FOR DATA CONSOLIDATION OF THE FISH MARKET IN CAPRI

Economic fish and aquaculture modelling is still at the beginning. The lack of a comprehensive and consistent data set for the production and trade of fish and other fishery products has restrained the modelling attempts so far. Here we show a methodology for filling the present data gaps and for overcoming existent inconsistencies to create a database that may support modelling of the fish sector, illustrated at the case of the fish module in the CAPRI model. We avoid double counting with respect to fishmeal and fish oil production and trade by disentangling the available data from key statistical sources relying on a minimization of normalized least squares. The presented data correction procedure and the resulting database may furthermore be of value for other models of global fish markets analyzing the importance of fishery and aquaculture products for global food security. The impact of the data correction procedure is demonstrated for the most relevant fish and fishery products producing and trading countries, comparing the resulting consolidated to the initial data

CAP measures towards environmental sustainability: Trade opportunities for Africa?

The future EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) requires coherence with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the international commitments in the fight against climate change. Next to ensuring stable food supply by supporting farmers and enhancing agricultural productivity, environmental sustainability is a core aspect of the proposed future CAP. At the same time, new policies must not compromise socio-economic development in low-income countries, especially in Africa, as stated in the European consensus on development. On the contrary, the extensification of agriculture in the EU may create trade opportunities for African countries. We apply a global agri-economic model to assess trade-related impacts of potential, environmentally motivated changes of CAP policies in the EU and Africa. Our findings suggest that EU production levels of meat would change with a stronger environmental focus of the CAP. These changes reduce the EU’s share in agri-trade flows to Africa. However, food supply in Africa is not projected to deteriorate, as imports from other world regions and, to a limited extent, increasing domestic production can fill the gap. In how far potentials for domestic production growth can be used in African regions depends at least partly on their competitiveness vis-á-vis substituting importers. A sensitivity analysis on reduced transport costs shows that infrastructure investments could contribute to a stronger integration of Africa in international markets. On a global level, our analysis reveals the need to balance sustainability trade-offs in terms of avoiding leakage effects from EU agricultural production changes versus facilitating economic growth potentials in low- and middle-income countries