Evaluating Alternative Methods of Forecasting House Prices: A Post-Crisis Reassessment

This paper compares the performance of different forecasting models of California house prices. Multivariate, theory-driven models are able to outperform a theoretical time series models across a battery of forecast comparison measures. Error correction models were best able to predict the turning point in the housing market, whereas univariate models were not. Similarly, even after the turning point occurred, error correction models were still able to outperform univariate models based on MSFE, bias, and forecast encompassing statistics and tests. These results highlight the importance of incorporating theoretical economic relationships into empirical forecasting models.house prices, forecasting, forecast comparison, forecast encompassing

MARGINAL AGRICULTURAL LAND CLASSIFICATION: A NEW APPROACH

Land Economics/Use,

Unequal arm space-borne gravitational wave detectors

Unlike ground-based interferometric gravitational wave detectors, large space-based systems will not be rigid structures. When the end-stations of the laser interferometer are freely flying spacecraft, the armlengths will change due to variations in the spacecraft positions along their orbital trajectories, so the precise equality of the arms that is required in a laboratory interferometer to cancel laser phase noise is not possible. However, using a method discovered by Tinto and Armstrong, a signal can be constructed in which laser phase noise exactly cancels out, even in an unequal arm interferometer. We examine the case where the ratio of the armlengths is a variable parameter, and compute the averaged gravitational wave transfer function as a function of that parameter. Example sensitivity curve calculations are presented for the expected design parameters of the proposed LISA interferometer, comparing it to a similar instrument with one arm shortened by a factor of 100, showing how the ratio of the armlengths will affect the overall sensitivity of the instrument.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures, REVTeX

The recent growth of the Las Vegas Valley and its effect on the criminal justice system

In order to succeed every city must offer its residents the opportunity and a prosperous quality of life. Local governments are charged with creating an environment which allows its citizens to find and exploit these opportunities. However, often local governments pursue their objective without planning for the future. As a result, the economic initiatives pursued by local governments may cause a period of unrestrained growth, which can lead to unforeseen consequences, such as pollution, traffic, and crime. A person\u27s quality of life will diminish if he or she does not feel safe; This thesis will focus on the affects growth has on one particular quality of life: safety from crime. Economic development theories relating to the growth of cities will be analyzed first. Second, the relation between city growth and crime will be analyzed. Next, a brief history of Southern Nevada will be required in order to fully understand the recent growth of the Las Vegas Valley. The causes of this growth will then be analyzed as well as its effects on the criminal justice system of Southern Nevada. Finally, current theories regarding growth management will be discussed and applied to Southern Nevada

Feedlot Performance of Hereford and Holstein Steers as Affected by Ration and Slaughter Weight

In 1918 the Bureau of Markets, now the Bureau of Agriculture Economics, of the United States Department of Agriculture inaugurated its market reporting service on livestock in Chicago. At that time a uniform standard was set up for market classes and grades of cattle. The use of these uniform descriptions for all classes and grades of cattle throughout the country by researchers, producers, selling and buying agencies and packers has contributed a great deal to the orderly marketing of cattle and to the reporting and exchange of research information. The grade of a particular animal is determined by the apparent relative excellence and desirability of the animal for its particular use, be it feeding or for slaughter. The grade for a feeder is based on its conformation, quality, breeding, constitution, capacity and condition. Slaughter cattle are graded on the basis of their relative excellence with respect to conformation, finish, quality and maturity or age (Snapp and Neumann, 1960). However, the grade placed on cattle does not necessarily always reflect the animal’s ability to perform in the feedlot or its carcass quality. Under present grading standards plainer, upstanding , rangy cattle as typified by dairy breeds are placed in the lower standard feeder grade, and when sold on a live basis for slaughter are usually placed in the standard or good grade. However, recent research on carcass characteristics with this type of cattle and the beef breeds has not shown as wide differences in value of the carcass as were commonly thought to exist. The fact that carcasses from dairy-bred cattle grade lower than those from beef type cattle grade is due mainly to their poorer conformation. Conformation has no effect on quality of the meat and Murphey et al. (1960) stated that finish was 4.5 times as important as conformation in predicting yields of closely trimmed, mostly bone-in retail cuts from the round, loin, rib and chuck. Recent changes in government grading standards, which put more emphasis on quality and less on conformation, has benefited plainer types of cattle somewhat on market grade. It appears to have been common in the past to feed lower grading feeder cattle with a low energy ration and not attempt to feed them to the higher slaughter grades. Recent research, however, has questioned this practice and suggests that higher energy rations may improve the performance and slaughter grade of this type of cattle considerably. The purpose of this investigation was to determine the effects of energy content of rations on performance of dairy-type and beef-type steers using Holsteins and Herefords as representatives of the two types. Another objective was to study the influence of final weight and condition on performance at each level of energy for the dairy-type and beef-type steers. Weight gains, feed consumption, feed efficiency and carcass characteristics were used as measures of performance

Is Newer Better? Penn World Table Revisions and Their Impact on Growth Estimates

This paper sheds light on two problems in the Penn World Table (PWT) GDP estimates. First, we show that these estimates vary substantially across different versions of the PWT despite being derived from very similar underlying data and using almost identical methodologies; that this variability is systematic; and that it is intrinsic to the methodology deployed by the PWT to estimate growth rates. Moreover, this variability matters for the cross-country growth literature. While growth studies that use low-frequency data remain robust to data revisions, studies that use annual data are less robust. Second, the PWT methodology leads to GDP estimates that are not valued at purchasing power parity (PPP) prices. This is surprising because the raison d’être of the PWT is to adjust national estimates of GDP by valuing output at common international (PPP) prices so that the resulting PPP-adjusted estimates of GDP are comparable across countries. We propose an approach to address these two problems of variability and valuation.purchasing power parity; penn world table; methodology; growth; gdp estimates; cross-county data

A NEW APPROACH FOR ASSESSING THE COSTS OF LIVING WITH WILDLIFE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

The costs of living with wildlife are assessed using Namibian subsistence farmers willingness to pay (WTP) for deterrents to attacks on crops and livestock as a measure of damage costs. A utility-theoretic approach jointly estimates household WTP for deterrent programs in two currencies, maize and cash. This has a double payoff. Use of a noncash staple increases respondent comprehension and provides more information about preferences, improving the accuracy of results. The household shadow value of maize is also identified. Significant costs from living with elephants and other types of wildlife are demonstrated. Compensation for farmers may be warranted on equity and efficiency grounds. Uncontrolled domestic cattle generate even higher costs to farmers than wildlife, highlighting the need to clarify property rights among these farmers.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,