Cost-effective control of plant disease when epidemiological knowledge is incomplete: modelling Bahia bark scaling of citrus.

A spatially-explicit, stochastic model is developed for Bahia bark scaling, a threat to citrus production in north-eastern Brazil, and is used to assess epidemiological principles underlying the cost-effectiveness of disease control strategies. The model is fitted via Markov chain Monte Carlo with data augmentation to snapshots of disease spread derived from a previously-reported multi-year experiment. Goodness-of-fit tests strongly supported the fit of the model, even though the detailed etiology of the disease is unknown and was not explicitly included in the model. Key epidemiological parameters including the infection rate, incubation period and scale of dispersal are estimated from the spread data. This allows us to scale-up the experimental results to predict the effect of the level of initial inoculum on disease progression in a typically-sized citrus grove. The efficacies of two cultural control measures are assessed: altering the spacing of host plants, and roguing symptomatic trees. Reducing planting density can slow disease spread significantly if the distance between hosts is sufficiently large. However, low density groves have fewer plants per hectare. The optimum density of productive plants is therefore recovered at an intermediate host spacing. Roguing, even when detection of symptomatic plants is imperfect, can lead to very effective control. However, scouting for disease symptoms incurs a cost. We use the model to balance the cost of scouting against the number of plants lost to disease, and show how to determine a roguing schedule that optimises profit. The trade-offs underlying the two optima we identify-the optimal host spacing and the optimal roguing schedule-are applicable to many pathosystems. Our work demonstrates how a carefully parameterised mathematical model can be used to find these optima. It also illustrates how mathematical models can be used in even this most challenging of situations in which the underlying epidemiology is ill-understood.FFL was funded via a CNPq Fellowship (Brazil's National Council for Scientific and Technological Development, see http://memoria.cnpq.br/english/cnpq/index.htm). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Effect of the displacement rate and inclination angle in steel fiber pullout tests

This paper summarizes the results obtained in an experimental campaign on the effect of the displacement pullout rate and the inclination angle of the steel fiber pullout tests. For that purpose, specimens were obtained from a self-compacting concrete with a compressive strength of 86 MPa. In the experimental program, hooked-end steel fibers of 0.75 mm diameter and 60 mm length were used. Tests were executed with both hooked-end fibers, and smooth fibers obtained from the former by cutting the hooked end. For both type of fibers, their embedment length into concrete was 20 mm, and the influence of fiber inclination angle toward the load direction was investigated by adopting values of 0∘, 30∘ and 60∘. The tests were performed at displacement rates of 0.01, 0.1 and 1 mm/s. The results have shown that the peak pullout load increased with the inclination angle, in particular for the smooth series. Furthermore, higher displacement rates led to a higher energy absorption capacity for the pullout of the smooth fibers, while the energy absorption remained almost stable for hooked-end fibers.project BIA2015-68678-C2-1-R. M. Tarifa appreciates the financial support from the Department of Applied Mechanics and Project Engineering, UCLM (2018), and from the Programa propio de I+D+i de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid para realizar estancias de investigación internacional igual o superior a un mes (2019), to do two stays at the University of Minho, Guimarães, Portugal. E. Poveda acknowledges the funding from the International Campus of Excellence CYTEMA and the University of Castilla-La Mancha, throughout Ayudas para estancias en universidades y centros de investigación en el extranjero en 2019 en el ámbito del plan propio de investigación susceptibles de cofinanciación por el Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER), Programa 010100021 to fund her stays in the University of Minho during 2018 and 2019, respectively. The authors thank the support of the Department of Civil Engineering and the Laboratory of the Structural Division (LEST), University of Minh

Satisfaction with Life Scale among adolescents and young adults in Portugal: extending evidence of construct validity

The paper presents three empirical studies designed to extend the test of the construct validity of the Satisfaction With Life Scale (SWLS) among Portuguese students. In the first study, the responses of 461 elementary and secondary education students were submitted to a principal component analysis. A solution of one single factor was chosen, accounting for 55.7 % of the total variance, with Cronbach alpha coefficient and inter-item correlation above .70 and .20, respectively. The second study used a sample of 317 undergraduate students and registered a similar factor solution for SWLS (/pq = 0.99), which accounted for 65.6 % of the total variance (Cronbach alpha .89 and inter-item correlation above .20). A test–retest analysis registered coefficients of .70 (T2) and .77 (T3) and no significant statistically differences between T2, T3 and T1. The third study used a sample of 107 foster care youths from elementary and secondary education. Confirmatory factor analysis results indicate adequate fit indexes for the one-factor solution (v2/df = 2.70, GFI = .96, CFI = .96), which showed convergent validity, reliability and homogeneity. In conclusion, there is psychometric evidence for the one-factor structure of the SWLS in Portugal.FCTCOMPET

Quantitative effects of tobacco smoking exposure on the maternal-fetal circulation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite the existence of various published studies regarding the effects of tobacco smoking on pregnancy, and especially in regards to placental blood flow and vascular resistance, some points still require clarification. In addition, the amount of damage due to tobacco smoking exposure that occurs has not been quantified by objective means. In this study, we looked for a possible association between flow resistance indices of several arteries and the levels of urinary cotinine and the concentration of carbon monoxide in the exhaled air (COex) of both smoking and non-smoking pregnant women. We also looked for a relationship between those findings and fetal growth and birth weight.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In a prospective design, thirty pregnant smokers and thirty-four pregnant non-smokers were studied. The volunteers signed consent forms, completed a self-applied questionnaire and were subjected to Doppler velocimetry. Tobacco smoking exposure was quantified by subject provided information and confirmed by the measurement of urinary cotinine levels and by the concentration of carbon monoxide in the exhaled air (COex). The weight of newborns was evaluated immediately after birth.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Comparing smoking to non-smoking pregnant women, a significant increase in the resistance index was observed in the uterine arteries (P = 0.001) and umbilical artery (P = 0.001), and a decrease in the middle cerebral artery (P = 0.450). These findings were associated with progressively higher concentrations of COex and urinary cotinine. A decrease in the birth weight was also detected (P < 0.001) in association with a progressive increase in the tobacco exposure of the pregnant woman.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In pregnant women who smoke, higher arterial resistance indices and lower birth weights were observed, and these findings were associated with increasing levels of tobacco smoking exposure. The values were significantly different when compared to those found in non-smoking pregnant women. This study contributes to the findings that smoking damage during pregnancy is dose-dependent, as demonstrated by the objective methods for measuring tobacco smoking exposure.</p

Surviving crack: a qualitative study of the strategies and tactics developed by Brazilian users to deal with the risks associated with the drug

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Due to marginalization, trafficking violence, conflicts with the police and organic and social psychological problems associated with the drug, crack is one of the most devastating drugs currently in use. However, there is evidence that some users manage to stay alive and active while using crack cocaine for many years, despite the numerous adversities and risks involved with this behavior. In this context, the aim of the present study was to identify the strategies and tactics developed by crack users to deal with the risks associated with the culture of use by examining the survival strategies employed by long-term users.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>A qualitative research method was used involving semi-structured, in-depth interviews. Twenty-eight crack users fulfilling a pre-defined enrollment criterion were interviewed. This criterion was defined as the long-term use of crack (i.e., at least four years). The sample was selected using information provided by key informants and distributed across eight different supply chains. The interviews were literally transcribed and analyzed via content analysis techniques using NVivo-8 software.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There was diversity in the sample with regard to economic and education levels. The average duration of crack use was 11.5 years. Respondents believed that the greatest risks of crack dependence were related to the drug's psychological effects (e.g., cravings and transient paranoid symptoms) and those arising from its illegality (e.g., clashes with the police and trafficking). Protection strategies focused on the control of the psychological effects, primarily through the consumption of alcohol and marijuana. To address the illegality of the drug, strategies were developed to deal with dealers and the police; these strategies were considered crucial for survival.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The strategies developed by the respondents focused on trying to protect themselves. They proved generally effective, though they involved risks of triggering additional problems (e.g., other dependencies) in the long term.</p